REGIONAL ELECTIONS WILL TEST OPPOSITION UNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000949

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS WILL TEST OPPOSITION UNITY


CLASSIFIED BY: ABELARDO A. ARIAS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR,
FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) THE REGISTRATION OF CANDIDATES FOR VENEZUELA'S AUGUST
1 GUBERNATORIAL AND MAYORAL ELECTIONS BEGAN MARCH 16.
OPPOSITION GROUPS FACE THE CHALLENGE OF MAINTAINING UNITY IN
THEIR EFFORTS TO REVOKE THE MANDATE OF PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ
WHILE COMPETING FOR THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS. OPPOSITION
LEADERS HOPE TO TURN THE ELECTIONS INTO A PLEBISCITE AGAINST
CHAVEZ, THOUGH IN-FIGHTING IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO PRESENT
A BROAD FRONT AGAINST THE GOV. IF THE PRESIDENTIAL RECALL
REFERENDUM GOES FORWARD IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD, THE
OPPOSITION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AGAINST PRO-CHAVEZ
CANDIDATES, AND VICE VERSA. END SUMMARY.

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REGIONAL ELECTIONS AUGUST 1
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2. (C) ELECTIONS FOR VENEZUELA'S GOVERNORS (23 STATES PLUS
THE CARACAS FEDERAL DISTRICT MAYOR) AND MAYORS (335
MUNICIPALITIES) ARE SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE AUGUST 1.
REGISTRATION OF CANDIDATES BEGAN MARCH 16 AND ENDS MARCH 30
(CANDIDATES MUST FILE BY MARCH 23). THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL
COUNCIL (CNE) ANNOUNCED MARCH 16 THAT INCUMBENTS RUNNING FOR
RE-ELECTION WOULD NOT NEED TO RESIGN THEIR POSITIONS TO
CAMPAIGN, THOUGH MINISTERS OR ELECTED OFFICIALS RUNNING FOR A
DIFFERENT OFFICE MUST RESIGN UPON ANNOUNCING THEIR
CANDIDACIES. THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) IS
PRESSING FORWARD WITH THE ELECTIONS SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH THE
PENDING PRESIDENTIAL RECALL REFERENDUM, WHICH THE OPPOSITION
HOPES THE CNE WILL CONVENE BEFORE AUGUST.

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OPPOSITION UNITY INTACT FOR NOW
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3. (C) OPPOSITION GROUPS HAD BEEN SPLIT OVER WHETHER EVEN TO
PARTICIPATE IN THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS GIVEN THE CNE'S
QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THE SIGNATURE VERIFICATION PROCESS.
THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA (CD) ANNOUNCED MARCH 18,
HOWEVER, THAT OPPOSITION PARTIES HAD AGREED TO PARTICIPATE.
THE NOTICEABLE HOLDOUTS REMAIN PROYECTO VENEZUELA (PV),
HEADED BY HENRIQUE SALAS ROMER, AND PRIMERO JUSTICIA (PJ).
MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM (MAS) PRESIDENT FELIPE MUJICA TOLD
POLOFF MARCH 18 HE SAW BOTH PARTIES COMING AROUND TOWARD
PARTICIPATION. CAUSA R LEADER ANDRES VELASQUEZ TOLD POLOFF
MARCH 19 IT WOULD NOT BE LOGICAL FOR ONLY ONE PARTY TO
BOYCOTT, ESPECIALLY PJ, WHICH WOULD LOSE THE KEY MAYORSHIPS
OF CHACAO AND BARUTA IN METROPOLITAN CARACAS.


4. (C) MUJICA SAID PUBLICLY THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS A CHANCE
TO TURN THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS INTO A PLEBISCITE AGAINST THE
GOV. HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD NEED TO
FIELD SINGLE CANDIDATES IN EACH RACE TO OPPOSE THE PRO-CHAVEZ
CANDIDATE. HE SAID THE OPPOSITION IS ON THE VERGE OF MAKING
A "SERIOUS ERROR" BY PERMITTING SEVERAL OPPOSITION PARTIES TO
REGISTER CANDIDATES. HE SAID THAT SALAS ROMER WILL NOT
COORDINATE CANDIDACIES WITH OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES, AND PJ,
TRYING TO MAINTAIN ITS IMAGE AS A NON-TRADITIONAL PARTY, HAS
RESISTED COLLABORATING THE CD ON THIS POINT. HE BELIEVES
PJ'S DEARTH OF CANDIDATES AROUND THE COUNTRY, HOWEVER, WILL
MINIMIZE HOW THE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED.


5. (C) VELASQUEZ SAID IT WAS "CRAZINESS" FOR OPPOSITION
POLITICIANS TO ACT ON PERSONAL AMBITION WHEN PRO-CHAVEZ
CANDIDATES COUNT ON AT LEAST 30 PERCENT SUPPORT NATIONWIDE.
FOR THIS REASON, VELASQUEZ, WHO IS A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
DEPUTY, SAID HE HAD DECIDED NOT TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF
ANZOATEGUI OR BOLIVAR, WHERE HE SAYS HE HAS GOOD SUPPORT.
MUJICA SAID THE PROBLEM OF IN-FIGHTING IS WORSE AT THE
MAYORAL LEVEL, PREDICTING THAT, AT THE GUBERNATORIAL LEVEL,
THE OPPOSITION WOULD WIN 18 OF 24 STATES.

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CARACAS 00000949 002 OF 002

OF THE CNE WAS NOT
A REASONABLE EXCUSE NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN REGIONAL ELECTIONS.
FRAUD OR MISHANDLING OF THE ELECTIONS, HE SAID, IS SOMETHING
THAT THE OPPOSITION WILL HAVE TO CONFRONT IF IT OCCURS.
PRIVATELY, MUJICA BELIEVES THE CNE IS COMPLETELY BIASED
TOWARD THE GOV AND FURTHER DOUBTS THE CNE WILL BE ABLE TO
ADMINISTER FAIR ELECTIONS. VELASQUEZ REPORTED THAT HIS
SOURCES WITHIN THE CNE SAID THE ELECTORAL AUTHORITY HAD
CONSIDERED POSTPONING THE ELECTIONS UNTIL DECEMBER TO ALLOW
MORE PREPARATION TIME. CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS WITHIN THE
INSTITUTION REFUSED BECAUSE, VELASQUEZ ASSERTS, THE GOV WANTS
THE ELECTIONS TO COINCIDE WITH THE REFERENDUM WITH THE HOPE
OF DISTRACTING THE ELECTORATE.

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REGIONALS AND THE REFERENDUM
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6. (C) BOTH MUJICA AND VELASQUEZ AGREED THAT THE OPPOSITION
STILL GIVES TOP PRIORITY TO THE REFERENDUM AND IS SQUARELY
UNIFIED BEHIND IT. BOTH AGREED THAT IF THE REFERENDUM DOES
NOT GO FORWARD, IT WILL NEGATIVELY EFFECT THE OPPOSITION'S
CHANCES IN GUBERNATORIAL AND MAYORAL RACES, ESPECIALLY IF
PEOPLE BLAME THE OPPOSITION FOR THE RECALL'S DEMISE.
CONVERSELY, SAID VELASQUEZ IF A REFERENDUM IS HELD AND CHAVEZ
IS RECALLED, THE CNE WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO POSTPONE
REGIONAL ELECTIONS UNTIL THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS
ARRANGED.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) THE OPPOSITION NEEDS WINS IN THE GUBERNATORIAL AND
MAYORAL ARENA IF THE FIGHT WITH CHAVEZ DRAGS OUT TO 2006. WE
EXPECT THE OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES WILL CONTINUE TO
JOCKEY FOR CANDIDACIES, WITH THE LIKELY RESULT THAT THE
OPPOSITION VOTE IN SOME RACES WILL BE SPLIT TO THE CHAVISTAS'
ADVANTAGE. THE GOV IS HOPING THE OPPOSITION'S INTERNAL
CONFLICTS WILL LEAD TO A DECISIVE ELECTORAL BLOW AGAINST
THEIR POLITICAL CAPITAL. WE ALSO SEE THE CNE'S LACK OF
FAIRNESS IN THE VERIFICATION PROCESS AS A BAD OMEN FOR THE
EFFICIENCY AND TRANSPARENCY OF THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS.
SHAPIRO

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2004CARACA00949 - CONFIDENTIAL