Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS883
2004-03-12 21:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

SUMATE SCRUBS THE CNE'S PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000883 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE SCRUBS THE CNE'S PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000883

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: SUMATE SCRUBS THE CNE'S PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The NGO Sumate presented to the diplomatic corps on
March 11 its initial impressions of the signature
verification data given to the opposition by the National
Electoral Council's (CNE). The CNE's work is full of errors
that, in Sumate's opinion, imply an intentional effort to
ruin the chances of a recall referendum against President
Hugo Chavez. In addition to the CNE's alleged bad faith in
processing the signatures, Sumate sees fundamental logistical
problems that will make a successful appeals process
unlikely. While Sumate's analysis may strengthen the
opposition's hand somewhat in negotiating the appeals
process, the GOV more than likely hold to these numbers. End
Summary.

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Sumate: CNE Contradicts Its Own Numbers
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2. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD, "Democratic
Coordinating Committee") invited the diplomatic corps to a
briefing March 11, which the Ambassador attended, to present
an analysis of signature verification results supplied by the
National Electoral Council (CNE). Miranda State Governor
Enrique Mendoza made introductory comments about the CNE's
data, which was given to the opposition on March 7 as part of
the negotiations for an appeals process. Mendoza showed how
errors in transcription of identity numbers at the CNE
resulted in the inclusion of 80 active duty military officers
in the opposition's signature list, which the Ministry of
Defense cited as fraud on the part of the opposition.
Mendoza showed copies of the original signature forms with
the correct identity numbers as evidence that the officers
had not been fraudulently included, but rather altered during
transcription at the CNE (Note: A DCC representative
estimated to poloff that some 120,000 identity numbers had
been altered in this manner.).


3. (SBU) Enrique Palacios of the NGO Sumate gave an overview
of the CNE's data, noting that the data received on March 7
did not/not match the figures announced by CNE President

Francisco Carrasquero on March 2. For example, Carrasquero
declared that 1,832,493 of the signatures were valid, but the
new data gave the figure as 1,788,523, nearly 44,000 less.
Carrasquero also said 876,017 signature forms were "under
observation" for having similar handwriting ("planas" in
Venezuelan Spanish). The new data says 893,466 forms, a
difference of some 140,000 signatures.

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Logical Anomalies Abound
--------------


4. (SBU) Palacios noted that the CNE applied 38 different
reasons for rejecting (or placing "in observation") the
signatures, though the rules only specify five. The reasons,
he said, have the appearance of being created as the work
proceeded: some fingerprints were rejected for having "light
fingerprints" and others for an undefined "error in
fingerprint." Reason number "0," which invalidated nearly
300,000 signatures, was simply listed as "to be explained."
Other reasons included "lack of information," "torn signature
form," and "in physical search."


5. (SBU) Palacios said Carrasquero announced that 7,297 forms
had been returned unused or blank, which Sumate disputes. In
any event, Palacios noted that 321 signatures had been
credited to forms that were officially designated as "blank."
He said the CNE had found 8,526 signatures ruled out because
of "similar handwriting" criterion when there was no other
similar handwriting on the form, creating the logical fallacy
of how only one signature line on a form could be singled out
for looking like another. Though the forms only had ten
signature lines, 112 signature forms have more than 10

signatures each credited to them (one form supposedly
contained 37 signatures).


6. (SBU) Perhaps most confusing was that the 38 reasons were
not evenly applied to the final disposition of the
signatures. For example, reason number "1," described simply
as "annulled," resulted in 78,995 signatures sent to the
appeals process and 191,479 that were rejected completely.
Palacios questioned how the same criteria could have two
different outcomes.

--------------
Location, Location, Location
--------------


7. (SBU) Palacios gave a state-by-state breakdown of the
rejected signatures and those subject to appeal, claiming
some states showed unusually high rates of rejection/appeal.
Palacios showed a map of Caracas, in which hundreds of
centers in the poorer western part of the city had 50 percent
rejection/appeal rates, though rates of five percent
prevailed in the opposition strongholds in the east.
Palacios claimed this as evidence of an intent to force the
opposition to mount the appeals process in pro-Chavez areas,
where security risks for signers are higher.

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Appeals Process Not Feasible
--------------


8. (SBU) Palacios raised two key issues for making an appeals
process work. First, how to inform those who need to go to
the appeals centers. Palacios said the CNE's answer of
publishing the identity numbers in a national newspaper,
coupled with internet and other methods, could only reach
about 500,000 people (the opposition needs a net gain of
about 600,000 signatures). Second, how does one appeal the
signature? The one-computer-per-center scheme offered by the
CNE, in Sumate's opinion, would only allow 700,000 signatures
to be processed (assuming only two days of appeals, which the
GOV has said could be expanded to three days). Palacios
suggested that the best solution was for all signers to
affirm their signatures in the appeals process, replace
computers with a simple electoral "book" that can be signed,
and allow up to ten lines per center. Palacios said the
opposition might need until mid-April just to get organized
to make the process work.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) While we did not expect the CNE's work to be
error-free, the Sumate presentation reinforces our belief
that the CNE has not been acting in good faith. Per Sumate,
the CNE has twisted the signature count to match President
Chavez's assertions that an opposition-perpetrated
"megafraud" has been afoot. The incongruities between CNE's
data and the opposition's may vindicate the opposition
assertions, but it will not change the reality that the GOV
continues to push them into an appeals process that will not
work. Public discontent over the CNE's ineptitude and/or
duplicity might give the opposition some negotiating chits,
but Chavez still controls the board for this next round of
the referendum process.


SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00883 - CONFIDENTIAL