VENEZUELA REFERENDUM UPDATE: 2/25/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000649

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REFERENDUM UPDATE: 2/25/2004

REF: CARACAS 00503 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for Reasons
1.5(b) and (d)

--------------
Summary:
--------------


1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced
February 24 that petition forms with more than one third of
the signatures to petition the recall of President Chavez
will be submitted to the CNE's Superior Technical Committee
(CTS) for further review because they were filled in with the
same handwriting. The OAS and the Carter Center issued a
joint statement February 24 renewing support for a democratic
process and calling on the CNE to reach a decision by the end
of February. The Canadian Embassy in Caracas issued a
statement February 20 reiterating support for the OAS and the
Carter Center's on-going efforts. The European Union (EU)
February 24 expressed "worry" at the CNE's delay in verifying
the signatures. OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo told
the Ambassador February 25 pro-GoV CNE Director Rodriguez
threatened to kick out the international observers if they
pre-empted the CNE. Jaramillo said he anticipates more GoV
delays, at least through March 18. End Summary.

--------------
CNE Sends Planillas to CTS for Review
--------------


2. (U) Francisco Carrasquero, president of the National
Electoral Council (CNE),announced February 24 that 148,190
petition forms (planillas) will be submitted to the CNE's
Superior Technical Committee (CTS) for further review. These
forms represent roughly 1.3 million signatures of the 3.4
million submitted by the opposition seeking a recall
referendum against President Hugo Chavez. The forms, the CNE
said, are suspect because they contain some personal
information filled out in handwriting different that the
signature (so-called "planillas planas"),allegedly in
violation of the CNE instructions.


3. (U) Pro-GoV CNE director Jorge Rodriguez told reporters
February 25 that when the norms for the signature drive were
discussed, the full CNE board was in agreement that every
signer would have to fill in his or her own data. Rodriguez
said that any signature forms with the same handwriting were
therefore suspect. He refused to confirm a press report that
the CNE was planning to start the process by which citizens
can challenge the validation of their signatures on March 11,
and reiterated that no signatures have been invalidated.
Rodriguez rejected the statistical sampling system proposed
by the OAS and the Carter Center, calling it was
"statistically deficient."

--------------
Statements Supporting the Process
--------------


4. (U) The OAS and the Carter Center issued a joint statement
shortly after Carrasquero's February 24 statement renewing
support for a democratic process and calling on the CNE to
continue reach a decision by the end of February. The
Canadian Embassy also issued a statement February 20 quoting
its Foreign Minister and reiterating the GoC's firm support
for the OAS and the Carter Center's efforts to guarantee a
"transparent, legitimate and peaceful" referendum process.
The statement said the citizens' rights are paramount, and
called on the CNE to adopt methods to ensure maximum citizen
participation. (Note: A copy of the Canadian statement has
been forwarded to WHA/AND). The European Union (EU) February
24 expressed "worry" at the CNE's delay in verifying the
signatures, and called on the CNE to quickly fulfill its
duties by February 28. The EU statement reiterated support
for the OAS team of observers and referred to May 29, 2003
agreement between the GoV and the opposition to move forward
with a constitutional process.


5. (C) On February 25, OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo

told the Ambassador that he had objected to some changes that
the Carter Center (including President Carter) had wanted to
include in the OAS/Carter Center message, the OAS had been
willing to make an independent statement, but compromise
language was reached just before it was released. The Carter
Center had wanted to release the statement before the CNE
decision, but Jaramillo said CNE Director Rodriguez
threatened to kick out the observers if they pre-empted the
CNE. Jaramillo told the Ambassador that he does not see any
will in the CNE to reach a decision on the referendum.
Jaramillo anticipates more delays, at least through March 18.


6. (C) Jaramillo considered the statements by the EU and
Canada very useful. He said he needs more support from
countries for the OAS mission, though ruled out most other
key players in the region. OAS Permanent Council President
Durant's visit may not be a good idea now, Jaramillo said,
especially since the Canadians issued a statement already. A
statement from the OAS Permanent Council is not feasible.
SHAPIRO


NNNN

2004CARACA00649 - CONFIDENTIAL