DAS DESHAZO'S MEETING WITH AMBASSADORS ON 2/16/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000628

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: DAS DESHAZO'S MEETING WITH AMBASSADORS ON 2/16/2004

REF: CARACAS 00503 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for Reasons 1.5(b)
and (d)

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Summary:
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1. (C) During a February 16 meeting in Caracas, DAS Peter
DeShazo told ambassadors from interested countries that the
international community needs to make clear its strong and
unified support for the democratic process, the OAS and the
Carter Center. The Spanish ambassador worried about a CNE
collapse if the two opposition directors walk out. The
Canadian ambassador observed that Chavez's recent rhetoric
sounded like a "bully," more intransigent and more
aggressive, and noted that OAS resolution 833 could still be
used for additional action. The ambassadors from Mexico and
Colombia chafed at the prospect of their governments making
additional bilateral statements on the CNE process. While
the Mexican ambassador agreed that we need an expression from
the international community, he suggested the OAS could
effectively carry Mexico's message.


2. (C) The Spanish ambassador reported rumors that the GoV
is suppressing news of violence during the opposition
demonstration on February 14. The Chilean ambassador
observed that military commanders loyal to Chavez locked down
troops in their barracks during the march. The Canadian
ambassador said he visited the CNE building on February 14
and observed "frightening" people preparing for a
confrontation. The Mexican ambassador said the National
Guard has an active presence near the CNE building in order
to exert pressure on the CNE.

End summary.

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Message of Support for OAS and Carter Center;
International Community Urged to Act
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3. (C) During a February 16 visit to Caracas, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State Peter DeShazo and Ambassador
Charles Shapiro met with Spanish Ambassador Manuel Viturro de
la Torre, Canadian Ambassador Allan Culham, Chilean
Ambassador Favio Vio, Colombian Ambassador Maria Angela
Holguin, Mexican Ambassador Enrique Loaneza, and Argentine
Charge d'Affaires Carlos Riva regarding the current situation
in Venezuela and the role of the international community in
regard to the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the
on-going process to verify signatures on petitions seeking a
recall referendum on the rule of President Hugo Chavez.


4. (C) DAS DeShazo told the diplomats that the USG is
urging countries and any individuals with influence to weigh
in on the question of Venezuela's continued movement toward
an electoral solution to the on-going political impasse. He
said he was pleased that Canadian OAS Permanent
Representative Paul Durand is planning to visit Venezuela.
(Note: Durand is currently the president of the PAS permanent
council). Unfortunately, DAS DeShazo reported, Ambassador
Durand will be delayed because of emergency meetings
regarding Haiti. DAS DeShazo polled the diplomats on their
opinions on what members of the international community could
do regarding Venezuela. After discussion, DAS DeShazo said
all interested parties in the international community need to
make clear their strong and unified support for the OAS and
Carter Center. That message should be communicated both
publicly and privately, in multi-national groups such as the
Friends of Venezuela or the OAS, as well as in bilateral
meetings with the GoV. The central message for all is that
each government/country supports the democratic process and
the involvement of the OAS and the Carter Center.

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Spain: Venezuela Must Act
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5. (C) Spanish Ambassador Viturro said that the message he
took away from recent briefings from the OAS representative
Francisco Jaramillo and Carter Center representative Jennifer
McCoy was that public criticism of the CNE could be a
disaster. As a result, the ambassador was surprised that the
February 13 OAS/Carter Center statement seemed to advise the
CNE on internal processes. The OAS and Carter Center, he
said, must remember the process is exclusively in the hands
of Venezuela, or risk becoming embroiled in angry GoV
statements about attempted "colonialism."


6. (C) Viturro noted that Chavez was in the midst of a
political campaign, and predicted that he will try to force
the hand of the CNE. In answer to a question from the DAS,
Viturro said any public criticism brought by the OAS/Carter
Center against the GoV and the CNE for failing to verify the
signatures would provide "a balloon of oxygen" for the
Venezuelan opposition.


7. (C) Viturro noted that the OAS is in some ways at a
disadvantage because it makes decisions by consensus and the
GoV can block action it does not like. The Carter Center,
the ambassador said, can speak more clearly because it is a
private NGO and has only its own opinion to pronounce. The
Spanish ambassador also noted that the work of local NGO
Sumate, which maintains an electronic database with digitized
images of every signature gathered, makes any fraud by the
GoV very difficult. Canadian Ambassador Culham added that
Sumate is impressive, transparent, and run entirely by
volunteers.


8. (C) Viturro noted that the CNE's decision is not final
and is subject to review by the Venezuelan Supreme Court of
Justice (TSJ) in legal challenges brought by either the GoV
or the opposition. He worries about the international crisis
in the CNE board. If the two opposition CNE directors were
to walk out, the CNE would collapse and the situation would
be very serious. Viturro wondered if the CNE collapses
whether the TSJ would step in. Such a situation would affect
all electoral processes. Accordingly, he said the OAS and
Carter Center need to focus not only on the activities of the
CNE, but also on the CNE itself.

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Canada: Chavez Talks Like Bully; Resolution 833 Still There
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9. (C) Canadian Ambassador Culham expressed surprise at
the tone of Chavez's statements during his weekly television
and radio show "Hello President" on February 15. Colham
observed that Chavez's rhetoric was as tough as he had ever
heard him. "He sounded like a bully," said Culham, more
intransigent and more aggressive.



10. (C) Culham noted that OAS resolution 833 was still
available for reference and could be used for additional
action, such as calling for a report from the observers or
another visit from OAS SYG Cesar Gaviria. Culham said we are
not yet at a stage where nothing can be done. The Canadian
government will shortly issue a statement supporting the
OAS/Carter Center. (Note that statement issued) Those
organizations and their work, said Culham, are all that stand
between Venezuela's future and "complete chaos."

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Argentina: Court Ruling Would Help
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11. (C) Argentine Charge Riva noted that the whole
electoral process will likely end up in court before the TSJ.
That may be a net benefit. A court ruling, said Riba, may
give the people more confidence in the process.

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Mexico and Colombia: Isn't the OAS Enough?
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12. (C) The ambassadors from Mexico and Colombia both

chafed at the prospect of their governments making additional
bilateral statements on the CNE process. Mexican Ambassador
Loaeza suggested that the OAS could effectively carry
Mexico's message. DAS DeShazo pointed out that the OAS was
limited and messages from members of the broader
international community would be helpful. Loaeza agreed, and
said the wider "Inter-American Community," including Western
Hemisphere nations and interested countries like Spain and
Portugal, would make a good working group. Loaeza said his
government's principle worry was to avoid any perception of
an intervention by outside countries. Nevertheless, Lonaza
agreed that it was clear that we needed some expression from
the international community. Any such statement, Loaeza
said, must be formulated to show no preference toward either
side. Loaeza asked if the U.S. would sponsor a resolution to
that effect in the OAS.


13. (C) DAS DeShazo said the U.S. was currently working
within the OAS but, in addition, the USG urged every country
to speak bilaterally with the GoV to communicate worry and
interest regarding the current situation and to express
support for the OAS and the Carter Center. The DAS added
that we could speak privately about specific issues such as
the disqualification of signature sheets, but public
statements would be more useful is kept to a general
statement of support for the process and OAS/Carter Center
involvement.


14. (C) Colombian Ambassador Holguin said her government
was particularly sensitive about any communication that could
damage the already delicate relationship between the
neighboring countries. Therefore, she saw little chance that
Colombia would make any movement outside the OAS.

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Chile: OAS/Carter Center Must Appear Independent
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15. (C) Chilean Ambassador Favio Vio said the perception
that the OAS and the Carter Center are operating
independently is extremely important. The developments he
saw during the week of February 9 were particularly
worrisome. The Government of Chile, said Vio, feels OAS SYG
Gaviria will have to personally re-enter the field.
Ambassador Shapiro noted that Gavira may have influence with
the Inter-American Community, but the Carter Center has more
influence with Chavez.

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Opposition March Peaceful But Pressure on CNE Still Evident
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16. (C) The Colombian ambassador was thankful the February
14 opposition march was peaceful, and was happy the
opposition decided to avoid any confrontation by not marching
to the CNE building as originally planned. Spanish
Ambassador Viturro said that he was in the Venezuelan resort
of Los Roques with a group supporting the opposition, and
they reported rumors that the GoV had killed two opposition
demonstrators in Caracas on February 14. The rumor, reported
Viturro, is that the GoV is suppressing news of the deaths.
The point, he said, is although the march was peaceful,
rumors still circulate in some opposition circles. Chilean
Ambassador Vio said he was impressed at how effectively the
military commanders loyal to Chavez had locked down the
troops in the barracks during the march.


17. (C) Canadian Ambassador Culham reported that he had
personally gone to the zone near the CNE building on the day
of the February 14 march, and observed "frightening" people
preparing for a confrontation. Ambassador Shapiro noted that
directors of the CNE themselves effectively require
permission from pro-Chavez activists camped outside the CNE
to enter. Mexican Ambassador Loaeza said the National Guard
has an active presence near the CNE building in order to
exert GoV pressure on the CNE.


18. (U) DAS DeShazo cleared the text of this cable after
leaving post.

SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00628 - CONFIDENTIAL