VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/14/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000578

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/14/2004

REF: CARACAS 00552 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for Reasons 1.5(b) and (d)

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Summary: (Note:The Following message was e-mailed to the
Department
on 2/14/2004 and is reported by cable for the
record.)
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1. OAS:

-- (C) OAS chief of staff Francisco Jaramillo told the
Ambassador February 13 that the National Electoral Council
(CNE) board meeting with the Carter Center and OAS was "a
disaster." Jaramillo said the CNE refused an OAS and Carter
Center proposal to bring fingerprint experts from the Mexican
government to analyze signature forms.


2. Opposition:

-- (U) Streets and freeways in the eastern sections of the
city were awash with thousands of opposition demonstrators
peacefully congregating February 14.

-- (C) Opposition representative told poloff February 14 that
the march was a success, estimating 500,000 opposition
demonstrators, but it would not continue to the CNE building
because it was blocked by GoV security forces and
sympathizers armed with clubs.


3. GoV:

-- (U) The Ministry of Interior and Justice announced at the
end of the march that everything had been carried out in
peace. MinInt officials had warned opposition leaders on
February 13 that the GoV could not guarantee their safety if
they marched to the CNE building.

-- (U) The GoV mounted a large open food market, with free
medical clinics, naturalization fairs, and cultural events,
in the path of the march.

-- (U) Official GoV television used a split screen with
selective footage to play down the numbers of participants in
the march.

-- (U) Chavez said on February 13 he would appeal any
decision by the CNE allowing a presidential recall referendum
to the Supreme Court.


4. CNE:

-- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez (pro-GOV) said February
13 the CNE board will announce criteria to be used in the
verfication process by the Superior Technical Commission
(CTS) on February 16.

-- (U) Rodriguez also said the CNE believes the controversial
signature forms alleged to have been filled out in the same
handwriting may exceed 50,000 signature sheets (or
approximately 450,000 signatures).

-- (C) On February 13 CNE Vice President Zamora (opposition)
threatened not to attend further meetings in the CNE board
until the "encirclement" of the CNE by pro-Chavez activists
("chavistas") is ended.

End Summary.

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CNE meeting with OAS and Carter Center a "Disaster"
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5. (C) The Ambassador met on the evening of February 13 with
OAS chief of staff Francisco Jaramillo for a readout on the
National Electoral Council (CNE) board meeting with the
Carter Center and OAS earlier that day (reftel). Jaramillo

confirmed that the pro-Chavez activists camped out around the
CNE building made getting to the building nearly impossible.
Jaramillo said when his car was stopped by traffic, he jumped
on the back of a motorcycle-taxi to arrive late to the
meeting.


6. (C) The meeting, said Jaramillo, was "a disaster." The
Carter Center and the OAS proposed bringing fingerprint
experts from the Mexican federal prosecutor's office to take
a random sample of 1,000 signature forms (about 8,500
signatures) for an analysis, he said. The CNE board rejected
the proposal. The OAS and Carter Center representatives then
shared the statement they were about to read to the press
(see reftel) and then left for the press area. After Carter
Center representative Jennifer McCoy left for a meeting with
President Hugo Chavez, Jaramillo returned for a wrap-up with
CNE President Francisco Carrasquero. Jaramillo said
Carrasquero was furious with both organizations for allegedly
making proposals that tried to shortcut the CNE's procedures.


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Opposition March: Peaceful and Growing
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7. (U) Opposition marchers started massing February 14 at
about 10:00 a.m. at several gathering points in Caracas. By
mid-day, streets and freeways in the eastern sections of the
city were awash with thousands of opposition demonstrators
peacefully congregating. Opposition plans called for
marchers to converge from six points around the capital to
Plaza Venezuela near the Botanical Garden to collect printed
certificates showing copies of their signatures to petetion
for a resesidential recall referendum.


8. (C) Opposition statistic expert Amado Dounia told poloff
at 2:30 p.m. that the march had been a success, but it would
not continue to the CNE building because it was blocked by
GoV security forces. Douia said Miranda State Governor
Enrique Mendoza suspected an ambush after observing the
number of troops and a band of GoV sympathizers carrying
clubs in teh proximity. Dounia guessed that 500,000
opposition demonstrators took to the streets in Caracas.

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GoV Organizes Events To Block March Route
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9. (C) Officials of the Interior Ministry asked the
opposition yesterday via press conference not to march
farther than the Botanical Garden due to lack of security.
The GoV also mounted a large open market on Avenida Bolivar
in the capital, in the path of the planned opposition march,
on February 14. The GoV announced late on February 13 that
in addition to a GoV-subsidized meat sale, there would also
be free medical services, free medicines, an express
naturalization process, and music concerts. The DCM walked
the GoV-sponsored megamarkets before the opposition march
began, noting tens of thousands of people. The DCM noted the
market was not overtly partisan or hostile, with many
apparently attracted by the fifteen percent price break on
meat and vegetables.

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Tricky GoV TV Claims No March
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10. (U) Official GoV television showed used a split screen to
show selective footage on February 14 depicting higher
concentration of people at the GoV's megamarket than at teh
opposition march. The right side showed a close-up of the
GoV-sponsored crowd assembled for its cultural events and
food markets. The left side showed sections of empty road in
Caracas, purporting to indicate that few showed up for the
opposition's march. Keeping with the theme, Vice President
Jose Rangel announced February 14 that the opposition was
invisible. Nevertheless, all other commercial media outlets
showed thousands of marchers in all areas of the planned
march route. The GoV footage showed the same truck passing

the same empty street over and over, suggesting that the GoV
TV was using a video loop. PD Off observing the opposition
march confirmed huge crowds massing in the capital's eastern
sections.

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Chavez Pledges Legal Challenge if CNE Calls a Referendum
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11. (U) During his press conference to foreign correspondents
on February 13 (carried live for 2 hours by GoV mandate on
all/all media outlets in the country),Chavez said he would
appeal any forthcoming decision by the CNE to allow a
presidential recall referendum to the Supreme Court of
Justice (TSJ). Only if the TSJ upholds a referendum, Chavez
said, would he participate.

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CNE Expects New Rules for Technical Review Committee
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12. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez (pro-GOV) February 13
announced the CNE board will discuss rules for the
verification of signatures to be used by the Superior
Technical Commission (CTS) during the weekend on February 14
and 15, and announce final criteria on February 16.
Rodriguez also said the CNE believes the controversial
signature forms alleged to have been filled out in the same
handwriting (the so-called "planillas planas", see reftel)
may exceed 50,000 signature sheets (or approximately 450,000
signatures). Rodriguez did not/not address when the CNE
would provide rules for the possible 5-day period during
which voters listed on questionable signature forms could
come to the CNE in person to affirm their name and signature.


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Zamora Worries About Chavistas, New Schedule at the CNE
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13. (C) On February 13 CNE Vice President Zamora (opposition)
threatened not to attend further meetings in the CNE board
until the "encirclement" of the CNE by pro-Chavez activists
("chavistas") is ended. Zamora comlained about having to
enter the CNE building through back entrances to avoid the
Chavista camp in front of the building. The Chavistas have
moved back 20 meters since February 13, and National Guard
troops continue to guard the perimeter. Zamora said the CNE
approved a schedule on February 13 for the rest of the
verification process, but it has not yet been published.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00578 - CONFIDENTIAL