CARTER CENTER/OAS RAISE CONCERNS WITH DAS DESHAZO

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000577

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: CARTER CENTER/OAS RAISE CONCERNS WITH DAS DESHAZO

REF: CARACAS 552

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) WHA DAS Peter DeShazo expressed USG support for the
OAS and the Carter Center in a lunch on February 16 for
representatives of both organizations hosted by the
Ambassador. OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo said it is
clear the National Electoral Council (CNE) is attempting to
invalidate as many signatures as possible to terminate the
recall referendum petition against President Chavez. Noting
that the CNE cut off information after the OAS-Carter Center
statement of February 14, Jaramillo expressed doubt that the
observation mission could continue under such conditions.
Carter Center representative Francisco Diez said his
organization had also been told that requests for information
must be made in writing and be approved by the CNE board.
Diez said the situation of the observers is precarious.
DeShazo emphasized the importance of both institutions to
ensuring the transparency of the process. End summary.

--------------
OAS Chief Doubtful of Mission Success
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador hosted a lunch on February 16 for WHA
DAS Peter DeShazo to hear from representatives of the OAS and
Carter Center about the signature verification process at the
National Electoral Council (CNE). The OAS was represented by
OAS SYG Gaviria's Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo, OAS
country representative Patricio Carbacho, OAS head observer
Edgardo Ries, and OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez. Francisco
Diez and Andres Araya represented the Carter Center. DCM,
Polcouns, and poloff also attended.


3. (C) Jaramillo said he sees no purpose in the OAS mission
remaining in Venezuela. He said CNE President Francisco
Carrasquero launched into a tirade against him on February 13
after the OAS and Carter Center made a joint statement
pointing out that excessive technicalities were delaying the
signature count process. (Jaramillo also noted that the
February 13 statement said that the observers had not seen
evidence of fraud in the process, a poke at the GOV's
contention that the opposition was engaged in "megafraud.")
Jaramillo said that since then OAS observers had been cut off
from information from CNE mid-level officials with requests
now having to go through the CNE board.


4. (C) Jaramillo asserted that from the point when the CNE
changed the rules halfway through the physical verification
of the presidential signature forms, the CNE has tried to
invalidate as many signatures as possible. The "planillas
planas" issue (signature forms that were apparently filled
out by one person but signed by another) is a clear example
of this strategy, he said. Jaramillo said it was likely the
CNE board's decision on which criteria to apply to the
"planas" would be decisive, though he thought it likely the
CNE would put off that decision until the last. Jaramillo
noted that when the CNE's self-appointed deadline of February
29 arrives, the CNE will not/not be ready to make
announcement regarding the referendum.


5. (C) Acknowledging that he was brainstorming, Jaramillo
said the OAS could not sit back and wait for the process to
be pronounced dead. Their credibility as observers would be
at stake if they simply continued to go along, attesting to
procedures that ran counter to the spirit of recognized
electoral and legal concepts, he noted. Asked by the
Ambassador if his views reflected OAS SYG Gaviria's
perspective on the situation, Jaramillo said yes. Diez
cautioned that any decision by the observers to curtail
activities should be based on actions, not fears of what
decisions will be made. Diez said President Carter would
likely agree that if the CNE refused to provide access and

information necessary for completing the mission, the Carter
Center would have to withdraw.

--------------
Carter Center Still On the Good Side
--------------


6. (C) Francisco Diez said the CNE was probably more angry at
the OAS than the Carter Center, but noted that access to
information had also become more complicated. Diez said that
on February 14, an "informal flow of information" at the
mid-level that Carter Center was using to extract samples
from the signature forms was cut off. Diez conceded that
written permission made sense and immediately submitted the
request to the CNE board. He said the Carter Center had
collected only half of the signature forms needed for the
statistical sample when access was cut. (Note: Diez and
Jaramillo met with the CNE on February 17 and told reporters
they had discussed with the CNE directors ideas for how to
proceed with their observation mission, noting they would
follow up in writing shortly.)


7. (C) Regarding the CNE's announcement that it would invite
additional international observers, most believed it would
not help the process. Jaramillo noted that no reputable
observers would join the process in mid-stream. He did not
preclude the possibility that the GOV would find
personalities that would be nonetheless willing to lend
themselves to the affair. Diez said he had suggested to the
CNE "for the sixth time" that they extend an invitation to
the UNDP; the board refused. (Note: Opposition groups also
called for the UNDP's involvement, as they are part of the
tripartite committee that facilitated the May 29 agreement.)

--------------
Support For OAS/TCC
--------------


8. (C) DAS DeShazo briefed the observers on his meetings with
Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel and ambassadors of
interested countries (septels). He told the observers the
USG fully supports their work "in the trenches" on helping
Venezuela reach a solution to the political impasse.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) The situation for the electoral observation mission is
deteriorating. The GOV has taken a hostile position toward
the international observers, whom they portray as a threat to
the credibility of the CNE's ability to block the referendum.
The situation could improve if and only if Chavez were to
change his approach. The observers are still in place and
CNE directors still speak with the observer chiefs. The
CNE's ruling on the "planillas planas," which has been once
again postponed, will give an indication as to the CNE's --
and Chavez's -- determination to fulfill its mission in a
transparent manner.


10. (C) It is encouraging that OAS and the Carter Center are
willing to take action sooner rather than later. If they
don't act while the patient still has a chance of pulling
through, their report is likely to be a coroner's report on
the cause of death.


11. (U) DAS DeShazo cleared this cable.
SHAPIRO


NNNN

2004CARACA00577 - CONFIDENTIAL