BRAIN TRUST PREVIEWS PRIMARY PLANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000559

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: BRAIN TRUST PREVIEWS PRIMARY PLANS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO, FOR REASONS 1.4 9(b) AND
(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On 07 February, the Ambassador met with a group of
opposition "wise-men" who made a presentation on a plan for a
unified candidate to run for president in elections following
an eventual recall referendum. The group claimed that the
plan had possible widespread support among leaders of the
opposition, ranging from civic groups and the Catholic
Church, to the main political parties and potential
candidates. The centerpiece of the presentation was a plan
for a two-stage primary to choose the candidate. The NGO
SUMATE would organize the primary. The exact timing of each
aspect of the primary process had been extensively debated,
and was not finally decided in all its points. The main
conclusion was that the primaries would be announced around
the time the referendum was officially approved by the CNE,
and that the final phase would take place after the
referendum. END SUMMARY


2. (C) The Ambassador, accompanied by EmbOff notetaker, met
with Carmelo Lauria (ex-Minister, AD),Gustavo Tarre Briceno
(ex-Deputy, COPEI),Carlos Blanco (columnist for El
Universal, ex-Minister, AD),Joaquin Marta Sosa (author,
ex-head of VTV),Fernando Martinez Mottola (ex-Minister,
ex-head of CANTV),and Maria Corina Machado (SUMATE). The
group is composed of retired politicians, columnists, and
members of the private sector who have met weekly for 10
years to discuss politics. The group has been consulting with
SUMATE over proposals for selecting a single opposition
candidate.

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Why Primaries?
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3. (C) Martinez made a presentation on the debate over the
best system to choose a unified opposition candidate. He and
several of those present were part of a larger group that has
been circulating among the opposition, trying to arrive at a
consensus on the best way to resolve several issues. They
presented an impressive list of the groups they have spoken
to, and who they claim have agreed to the plan.


4. (C) The group starts from the premise that support for the
recall of Chavez is much stronger than that of the
opposition's candidates against Chavez. So while the
referendum will be won if it is allowed, the election could
still be lost, especially since Chavez himself is much more
popular than any single opposition leader. Martinez stressed
the importance of the opposition developing a positive
message for the future to attract those anti-Chavistas who do
not support any of the opposition candidates (a figure the
presentation put at 13%),and the 10% swing vote between the
opposition and Chavez.


5. (C) According to Martinez, a primary is the only option
that enjoys widespread support, and seems likely to give the
eventual winner legitimacy beyond hard-core anti-Chavistas.
It is also seen as the best way to force the potential
candidates to develop a positive forward-looking campaign, to
counter Chavez' relatively clear political message. To this
end, Martinez proposed a tightly structured debate for the
candidates, forcing them to address the issues of the day,
and not just attack one another. The main difficulty of a
primary is its organization within the tight schedule
provided by the Constitution, which stipulates 30 days
between the referendum, and the ensuing presidential
elections. Machado was confident that SUMATE could organize
and execute the primary.

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Unresolved Issues
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6. (C) Martinez' presentation stressed six main issues that

still need to be resolved.

Announcement of the primaries: A consensus was emerging that
the announcement of the primary could come as soon as the CNE
declared a referendum.

Before or after the referendum? While their are good
arguments on both sides, the thinking now is to launch the
two-stage primary after the referendum, though organization
and campaigning might begin before-hand.

CNE intervention: The constitution dictates that the CNE
oversee elections of party officials, which could impede a
possible primary. Machado believes there is a legal argument
to avoid CNE involvement, as an opposition candidate is not a
party official.

Candidate eligibility: Candidates would be required to
present signatures proposing them for the ballot. The group
tended toward a low threshold (10,000 signatures) in order to
keep most potential candidates inside the process.

One round or two? Two rounds would produce a unified
candidate with a majority backing, while a single round among
all candidates could produce a winner by a slim margin. Only
if one candidate got 40% or more of the vote, and 10% more
than the next person, would the second round be suspended.
The members of the G5 have reportedly accepted the plan, as
have Celia Sosa, Manuel Cova, Americo Martin, and Enrique
Tejera Paris. Salas Romer has agreed, but wants a primary
with no runoff. Only Teodoro Petkoff has rejected the plan.

Who can vote? Should the primary depend on the electoral
registry or those who signed the "Reafirmazo"? The group
leaned toward a broader and inclusive process.

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Can it work?
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10. (C) Blanco insisted repeatedly that no one would
participate in the process unless they were assured that the
winner would not only be the sole candidate, but would have
the full organizational support of all the other parties.
Martinez felt that Mendoza would probably withdraw to run in
2006 if he saw he could not win the primary. The group noted
that Henrique Salas Romer was supporting the plan because it
has not emanated from the CD, which Salas views as Mendoza's
campaign committee .


11. (C) Joaquin Marta Sosa is working on a consensus campaign
platform and a more basic plan of governability for the
opposition. But irreducible differences would need to be
solved by allowing the candidates to run in the primary on
those issues where they differ. The main issue is whether the
candidates will run again in 2006 if they win (Henrique Salas
Romer),serve only until 2006 (Enrique Mendoza),or serve
only as an interim leader (Manuel Cova).

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COMMENT
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12. (C) The opposition has got a number of issues it must
deal with simultaneously: getting the CNE to set a date for a
referendum, winning the referendum, settling on a single
opposition candidate for president, developing a unified
campaign organization and platform, and winning the election
are the near and medium-term tasks. This proposal helps
resolve the candidate and platform issues, while the
coordinadora focuses on the CNE. The group was confident
their proposal would be accepted by all the interested
groups. The key to its ability to achieve this feat seems to
have been a preference for negotiation and compromise over
demands and impositions. Getting Salas to agree has been the
most impressive accomplishment so far. If it is as close to
acceptance by all candidates as they claim, this group will
have provided a tremendous service to the opposition.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00559 - CONFIDENTIAL