VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/13/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000552

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/13/2004

REF: CARACAS 00535 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Mark Wells for Reasons
1.5(b) and (d)

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SUMMARY:
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1. Carter Center:

-- (U) In a February 13 statement the Carter Center called on
the National Electoral Council (CNE) to publish a firm
schedule to finish their verification of signature sheets by
February 28.


2. OAS:

-- (C) OAS observers told poloff that a February 28 deadline
would most likely be impossible to meet logistically.


3. CNE:

-- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said February 12 that the
CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased
from 39 to 78 members to accelerate the review of the
signature forms.

-- (C) OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez told poloff February 13
that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has
begun. The CTS expects to receive instructions on February

16.

-- (C) Amado Dounia, an opposition statistics manager, told
poloff February 13 that the new review of signature forms
does not bode well for the chances of a getting a recall
referendum.


4. Opposition:

-- (C) Salas Romer called Ambassador February 13 to say he
tried call off the February 14 march without success.
Romer's people will not participate.

-- (C) Various opposition leaders were threatened, pushed,
and otherwise deterred from entering the area when approached
the CNE headquarters on February 13.

-- (C) DCC operative Amado Dounia told poloff February 13
that Enrique Naime, chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has
received a death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if
he continues his work at the CNE.

-- (U) Television coverage showing pro-Chavez activists
pushing and ripping the clothes of opposition leaders was
interrupted on February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez,
in which the GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all
media outlets.

-- (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition
Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) said February 13 the
opposition would continue to protest until the CNE declared a
recall referendum and published norms for its decisions.

-- (C) Opposition deputy Leopoldo Martinez told poloff
February 13 that he doubted the success of the February 14
march due to fears of violence.


5. Violent Protests:

(U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the
evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the
wake of the CNE's announcement postponing a decision to
schedule a recall referendum.


6. GoV:

-- (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12
demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the
opposition-controlled media.


-- (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for
helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas,
was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of
Infrastructure.

End Summary.

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Carter Center Calls on CNE to Finish the Count
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7. (U) In a February 13 statement issued after a meeting with
officials of the National Electoral Council (CNE),Carter
Center representative Fernando Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy
called on the CNE to publish a firm schedule of events
through which they could finish their verification of
signature sheets no later than February 28. (Note: a copy of
the Carter Center statement has been forwarded to WHA/AND).
The statement reviewed the integral involvement of the OAS
and Carter Center as observers in the signature collection
and verification process, and noted "technical obstacles"
that kept the CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) from
fully reviewing all the signature forms submitted. These
obstacles, the statement said, were due to the immense volume
of forms referred to the committee and the "new character" of
the process.


8. (U) The statement said the Carter Center and the OAS are
encouraged that the CNE announced February 12 that it would
finish the verification process by end of the month, and
encouraged the CNE to publish the results by that time. In
addition, the Carter Center and OAS encouraged the CNE to
publish a schedule and comply with it, and urged transparency
in all control mechanisms to guard against fraud.


9. (U) Quoting former President Jimmy Carter, the statement
said the expression of the people must take precedence over
any legal technicality in counting the signatures. Lastly,
the statement said the CNE must be allowed to develop the
process without political pressures, and urged all parties to
express their concerns through peaceful means, without
intimidating the CNE or its facilities.

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OAS Privately Skeptical of New Deadline
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10. (C) In a February 13 meeting, OAS observer Marcelo
Alvarez confided to poloff that a February 28 deadline would
most likely be impossible to meet logistically. Alvarez said
that setting another date effectively kicks the ball down the
field, taking pressure off this weekend.

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CNE Director Hints at New Schedule
--------------


11. (U) When he arrived for a February 13 meeting with OAS
and Carter Center representatives, CNE Director Jorge
Rodriguez told the media that the signature results woudl be
know by the end of the month. Rodriguez also said security
had been reinforced around the CNE building. Additionally,
Rodriguez announced on February 12 that the CNE's Superior
Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased from 39 to 78
members to accelerate the review of the signature forms.


12. (C) OAS observer Julio Alvarez told poloff February 13
that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has
begun. The CTS expects to receive instructions on February

16. They have not yet implemented the quality control step,
in which a CNE supervisor reviews signatures that do not
match the electoral registry. Alvarez estimates it will take
ten days per drive to perform the quality control step, but
could be shortened by adding more staff. The results of that
step must be re-submitted for transcription to fix any error.


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Opposition Leaders Abused, Chavez Blocks Broadcast

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13. (C) Pro-Chavez activists ("chavistas") in battle dress
camping out in front of the CNE building make good on their
pledge to physically keep the opposition away from the CNE.
As various opposition leaders approached the CNE headquarters
on February 13, they were threatened, pushed, and otherwise
ejected from the area. National Assembly deputy Leopoldo
Martinez (Causa R) told poloff February 13 that deputy Andres
Velazquez was threatened by a man who pointed a pistol at his
head when he tried to get near the CNE building. According
to Martinez, nearby National Guard troops refused to protect
Velasquez, and instead told him to go away before more
trouble erupts.


14. (C) Threats are not limited to oppositon leaders
approaching the CNE building. DCC operative Amado Dounia told
poloff February 13 that Enrique Naime, a long-time Copei
activists and chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has received a
death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if he continues
his work at the CNE.


15. (U) Private television coverage showing crowds of
pro-Chavez activists pushing and ripping the clothes of
opposition leaders was interrupted on the afternoon of
February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez, in which the
GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all media outlets.
Chavez showed samples of the opposition's alleged
"megafraud," drawn from copies of signature forms.

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Opposition Figures Not Encouraging
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16. (C) Regardless of the deadline, Amado Dounia, a
statistics manager for the DCC, told poloff February 13 that
the new review of signature forms does not bode well for the
chances of a getting a recall referendum. With 93,000 forms
currently in the CTS, Dounia calculates that, assuming a
successful review rate of 25 percent, they could still
trigger the referendum. If 180,000-200,000 forms goes to the
CTS for review via the new physical inspection, Dounia said
the referendum will be lost. All depends on how many
criteria the CNE decides to apply, he concluded.

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Opposition Defiant; Nervously Planning March
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17. (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition
Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) told the press early
February 13 that the opposition would continue to protest
until the CNE declared a recall referendum, scheduled an
election, and published norms for its decisions. Naime noted
that the GoV was making the most noise because they "have
defeat painted on their face."


18. (C) During a February 13 meeting with poloff, Lisette
Behrens, legal adviser of the Democratic Coordinating
Committee (DCC),said the DCC is still planning to press
their march on February 14 to protest the continued shift in
the CNE's verification rules. Behrens expects over 600,000
demonstrators. Behrens said she and other DCC leaders met
February 12 with officials of the Ministry of Interior and
Justice to discuss security for the march. The ministry
officials not only refused to guarantee security, but also
tried to convince the opposition to send the marchers to
other areas the opposition regards as unsafe or too small for
their numbers. The GOV has already made the most direct
route to the CNE difficult by scheduling a meat market on the
same route. To avoid attacks, opposition leaders plan to
decided the actual march route on the night of February 13.
Behrens said opposition marchers have been instructed not to
carry weapons of any sort, to deny Chavez the ability to
blame them for any outbreaks of violence. Behrens spoke with
concern about the Democratic Bloc, a small opposition fringe
group who does not believe in the referendum.


19. (C) Opposition National Assembly deputy Leopoldo Martinez

is less sure. Martinez told poloff February 13 that he
doubted the success of the February 14 march. People might
go to Plaza Venezuela to get their signature, but not toward
the CNE for fear of violence. He said the Avenida Bolivar
meat market spoils their plans. Alternate routes are also
dangerous and all empty out at Plaza Caracas, where
pro-Chavez activists are waiting.

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Sporadic Protests Turn Violent
--------------


20. (U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the
evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the
wake of the announcement of the National Electoral Council
(CNE) to postpone a decision to schedule a recall referendum
on the rule of President Hugo Chavez (reftel). Several
protests were directed specifically against regional offices
of the CNE. A national student coordinating group is
apparently organizing protests against the CNE, with protests
fueled by student groups launched in Anzoategui, Trujillo,
Merida and Valencia. In some cases, confrontations between
protesters and security forces turned violent. In Merida, a
protest near the University of Los Andes sparked
confrontations with local police that shut down businesses
and blocked traffic throughout the day. A truce was reached
between student leaders and police late in the afternoon, but
street violence erupted again by the evening, eventually
broken up by police with tear gas and rubber pellets.
Twenty-five protesters were reported injured, among them a
journalist. In Valencia, protesters near the Technical
University confronted police in response to the arrest of
eight student leaders. Several buses were set ablaze and
university buildings were ransacked over the course of the
evening.


21. (U) Unrest broke out in several state capitals February
12, resulting in injuries and detentions, but no deaths. The
most heated protest occurred in Merida, where three student
demonstrators and one press photographer, Victor Serra, were
injured by rubber bullets or tear gas. In Valencia, Carabobo
state, students briefly held hostages and seized two
vehicles. A standoff between opposition and GOV supporters
in Anzoategui state occurred outside the local CNE branch
office. GOV supporters also allegedly attacked the Social
Christian (COPEI) headquarters in Aragua state.


22. (U) The original purpose for most of the marches was to
celebrate the Day of Youth, when students joined in a battle
against colonial Spain. Some students were protesting arrest
of student leaders accused of rebellion for the evenets in
April 2002. However, the marches took on political
significance following the CNE's decision to review signature
forms. A majority of the demonstrators were students, joined
by political parties and civic groups.

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GoV Denies Violent Demonstrations Took Place
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23. (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12
demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the
opposition-controlled media. He claimed the opposition was
panicking because it realizes it doesn't have enough
signatures to convoke a presidential recall referendum.

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GoV Orders Heliport Closed
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24. (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for
helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas,
was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of
Infrastructure. The last time the GoV closed the heliport
was during the opposition's exercise to collect signatures
seeking a recall referendum.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00552 - CONFIDENTIAL