VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/12/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000535

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/12/2004

REF: CARACAS 00503 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro for Reasons 1.5(b) and (d)


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SUMMARY:
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1. CNE:

-- (C) OAS observers told poloff on February 11 that the
National Electoral Council (CNE) will re-submit the remainder
of the signature forms for the presidential recall referendum
to a verification using their stricter criteria. This move
will certainly slow the verification process and increase the
number of signatures that could ultimately be stricken from
the count.

-- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced February 12 the
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of
February.

-- (U) Pro-Chavez CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez alleged that
opposition forces were pressuring the body to decide in their
favor. Pro-opposition CNE Vice President Ezequiel Zamora
said he would ask authorities to remove a pro-Chavez
activists ("chavistas") camping on the sidewalk outside the
CNE building.


2. Carter Center:

-- (U) Visiting Carter Center representative Jennifer McCoy
met with CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez February 12. She
announced that the Carter Center was concerned about public
safety at the CNE building for the up-coming marches. The
OAS and Carter Center will meet together with the CNE on
February 13.


3. GoV:

-- (C) Acting ForMin Arevalo Mendez told the Ambassador on
February 11 the opposition is trying to recreate the events
of April 2002. However, Mendez said the "people" would not
allow it this time.

-- (U) Minister of Infrastructure Diosdado Cabello said on
February 11 the GoV would "defend democracy," denied that the
GoV was planning an "autogolpe," and repeated that the GoV
would abide by the decision of the CNE.

-- (U) MVR Deputy Dario Vivas announced on February 12 the
GoV would begin Carnival celebrations one week at Plaza
Venezuela, where the opposition had been planning to rally to
distribute copies of the signatures to its marchers.


4. Opposition:

-- (C) Former Chavez advisor and current Chavez critic Luis
Miquilena told the Ambassador said he believes the "fix is
in" with the CNE, and the TSJ will back them up to stop the
referendum.

-- (C) Rumors persist that elements on both sides are
planning to stage violent attacks during the February 13 and
14 marches in an attempt to garner support.

End Summary.

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Look Again: CNE To Re-hash Signatures
Using Tougher Standards
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5. (C) OAS observers told poloff late on the evening of
February 11 that, as expected, the CNE board will re-submit
signature forms for the presidential recall referendum from
11 states to an additional verification process, using a new
stricter criteria. OAS observers told poloff that during the

inspection of the opposition's presidential recall signature
forms the criteria for verification were tightened (see
reftel),dramatically increasing the rate at which signature
forms were referred to the CNE's Superior Technical Committee
(CTS) for additional review. The CNE's decision will ask
workers to go back and look at all the forms previously
reviewed to see if they meet the new higher standards.


6. (C) A total of 25 percent of the signature forms have been
sent to the CTS for additional review so far. The CNE's
decision to review all forms using the new tougher criteria
could result in an additional 90,000 signature forms (or
roughly 900,000 signatures) being referred to the CTS,
thereby throwing as many as 50 percent of the signature forms
into the pile to go through the heightened CTS scrutiny.
This move will certainly slow the verification process and
increase the number of signatures that could ultimately be
stricken from the count.

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CNE Promises Results by End of February
--------------


7. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez announced February 12 the
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of
February. The CNE also announced that on February 12 they
would begin to discuss establishing criteria for the CTS
committee, which has already begun meeting without any formal
instructions. Visiting Carter Center representative Jennifer
McCoy met with CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez February 12. She
announced that the Carter Center was concerned about public
safety at the CNE building for the up-coming marches. The
OAS and Carter Center will meet together with the CNE on
February 13.

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CNE Chiefs Air Their Differences
--------------


8. (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez, who was appointed by the
pro-Chavez Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party, made a
statement February 11 to decry various unnamed "sectors"
trying to hinder the CNE's work, alleging that opposition
forces were pressuring the body to decide in their favor.
Not to be outdone, CNE Vice President Ezequiel Zamora,
appointed by the opposition, said he would ask authorities to
remove a vocal group of pro-Chavez activists ("chavistas")
camping on the sidewalk outside the CNE building. The
chavistas, led by pro-Chavez activist Lina Ron, posed for
cameras and made speeches on bullhorns outside the CNE
February 12, vowing that they would remain at the CNE to
confront opposition marches scheduled for February 13 and 14.
Some wore Che Gueverra-style combat fatigues and berets.
Nevertheless, Rodriguez announced February 12 that the
results of the signature drive would be known by the end of
February.

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GoV Warns Opposition, Pledges to Follow CNE Decisions
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9. (C) Acting Foreign Minister General Arevalo Mendez told
the Ambassador on February 12 that the opposition is trying
to recreate the events which lead to Chavez's temporary
removal in April 2002. However, Mendez said the western
neighborhoods of the capital will not march this time.
Mendez said April 2002 was the only time in the country's
history when Venezuelans took to the street to protest a coup
d'etat. The difference between today and April 2002, said
Mendez, is that today the "people are organized" and would
prevent the opposition from attempting a coup to begin with.


10. (U) Diosdado Cabello, the GoV Minister of Infrastructure
and a long-time Chavez hard-liner, joined in the public war
of words on February 11 by saying that the GoV knew how far
it was willing to go "to defend democracy" and Chavez's
self-declared bolivarian revolution. Cabello denied that the
GoV was planning an "autogolpe," or self-coup, to stop a
recall referendum, and repeated that the GoV would abide by

the decision of the CNE.


11. (U) MVR Deputy Dario Vivas announced February 12 the GOV
would begin Carnival celebrations one week early by having
activities such as beauty contest preliminaries at Plaza
Venezuela, where the opposition had been planning to rally to
distribute copies of the signatures to its marchers.

-------------- --
Opposition Points to Sneaky Business in the CNE
-------------- --


12. (C) During a February 12 meeting with the Ambassador,
former Chavez advisor and current Chavez critic Luis
Miquilena said he is very worried about the CNE's handling of
the presidential signature drive. Miquilena believes the
"fix is in" with the CNE, and the TSJ will back them up to
stop the referendum. Miquilena also sees a potential for
violence this weekend, which Chavez will use as a pretext to
react strongly.

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Conspiracy Theories Abound from Both Sides
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13. (C) Rumors persist that elements on both sides are
planning to stage violent attacks during the February 13 and
14 marches in an attempt to garner support. In one scenario,
an opposition fringe group is rumored to be instructing
demonstrators to bring guns to the February 14 march on the
CNE to protect against expected attacks from pro-GoV
activists ("chavistas"),or to invite violence against
themselves in order to repeat the events of April 2002, when
the military intervened and temporarily removed Chavez.
Other opposition rumors suggest that chavistas are willing to
shoot their own supporters and cleverly blame it on the
opposition in order to trigger a popular pro-Chavez outcry.


14. (C) The GoV, for its part, is peddling its own conspiracy
theories. During a February 12 meeting with poloff, ruling
MVR deputy Calixto Ortega painted an elaborate picture in
which he asserted anti-GoV activists plan to infiltrate Lina
Ron's group and throw explosives at the CNE building on
February 13 or 14. Ortega suggested this would provide cover
for the opposition to enter the CNE, destroy evidence of
their "mega-fraud," and let them blame the GoV. Ortega
distanced himself from Lina Ron, asserting she was an
uncontrollable extremist working on her own behalf. While
Ortega said he was sure that authorities would cooperate to
keep violence to a minimum, he admitted that the GoV timed
its Youth Convention (see reftel) in order to have GoV
supporters on hand in case things "get rough."
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00535 - CONFIDENTIAL