Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS503
2004-02-11 20:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/11/2004

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000503 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/11/2004


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR REASONS
1.5(B) AND (D)

--------
SUMMARY:
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000503

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/11/2004


CLASSIFIED BY: AMBASSADOR CHARLES S. SHAPIRO FOR REASONS
1.5(B) AND (D)

--------------
SUMMARY:
--------------


1. CNE:

-- (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) NOW
CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 30,000
SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES)
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10.

-- (U) CNE ANNOUNCED IT WILL INVOKE A 5-DAY PERIOD DURING
WHICH VOTERS COULD PERSONALLY VERIFY THEIR NAMES.


2. OPPOSITION:

-- (U) THE OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE WILL PROVIDE DEMONSTRATORS
WITH A COPY OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE TO MARCH TO CNE
HEADQUARTERS FEBRUARY 14.

-- (U) THE OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC)
NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TO THE CNE ON FEBRUARY 13,
COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADRE OF OPPOSITION LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY
DEMAND A RESPONSE ON THE REFERENDUM.


3. GOV:

-- (U) PRO-CHAVEZ ACTIVIST LINA RON AND A BAND OF BOLIVARIAN
CIRCLE MEMBERS HAVE ESTABLISHED CAMPS ON THE GROUNDS OF THE
CNE BUILDING, AND PLEDGE TO PROTECT" THE CNE FROM ANY
OPPOSITION INVASION.

-- (U) THE GOV IS ALSO SPONSORING A YOUTH MARCH FR FEBRUARY
11 THROUGH 13, CREATING WHAT THE OPPOSTION SAYS IS COVER TO
BUS IN HUNDREDS OF PRO-CHAEZ TOUGHS TO INTIMIDATE OR ATTACK
OPPOSITION ARCHERS.

-- (C) EXILED CTV LABOR LEADER CARLOS RTEGA CLAIMED THE GOV
PLANS TO USE THE OPPOSITIO MARCHES ON APRIL 13 AND 14 AS AN
PRETEXT TO LAUNH A SELF COUP, IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT WOULD
DECLRE MARSHAL LAW, SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION, AND ARRET OR
OTHERWISE REMOVE ALL OPPOSITION LEADERS. CV LEADER MAUAL
COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRUARY 11 THATHE DID NOT BELEIVE ORTEGA'S
CLAIMS WERE ACCURATE.

-- (U) POLITICAL ALLIES OF THE PRESIDENT HAVE GNE PUBLIC
WITH ALLEGATIONS OF COUP-PLOTTING AND ARN OF
OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED VIOLENCE.

-- (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS.

END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
CNE: NEW CONFUSION ON NUMBER OF QUESTIONABLE FORMS

-------------- --------------


4. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT DURING A MORNING MEETING WITH CNE DIRECTORS
EZEQUIEL ZAMORA (OPPOSITION) AND JORGE RODRIGUEZ (PRO-GOV) ON
FEBRUARY 11, THEY ASSURED HIM THEY WERE AWARE OF THE SERIOUS
ISSUE OF WHOLESALE INVALIDATION OF SIGNATURES. DIEZ SAID THE
CNE NOW CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR
30,000 SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES)
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10. ZAMORA AND RODRIGUEZ AGREED THAT
THE CARTER CENTER WOULD PRESENT SOME TECHNICAL ALTERNATIVES
TO THE CNE FOR DEALING WITH THE ISSUE.


5. (U) CNE PRESIDENT OSCAR BATTAGLINI ANNOUNCED LATER
FEBRUARY 11 THAT THE SIGNATURE FORMS FILLED OUT IN THE SAME
HANDWRITING (THE SO-CALLED "PLANILLAS PLANAS," EE REFTEL)
WOULD NOT BE NULLIFIED. INSTEAD, BATAGLINI SUGGESTED THAT
THE CNE WILL PUBLISH A LIST OF QUESTIONABLE SIGNATRES AND

CARACAS 00000503 001.2 OF 002

--------------


1. CNE:

-- (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) NOW
CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR 30,000
SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES)
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10.

-- (U) CNE ANNOUNCED IT WILL INVOKE A 5-DAY PERIOD DURING
WHICH VOTERS COULD PERSONALLY VERIFY THEIR NAMES.


2. OPPOSITION:

-- (U) THE OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE WILL PROVIDE DEMONSTRATORS
WITH A COPY OF THEIR INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE TO MARCH TO CNE
HEADQUARTERS FEBRUARY 14.

-- (U) THE OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC)
NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TO THE CNE ON FEBRUARY 13,
COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADRE OF OPPOSITION LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY
DEMAND A RESPONSE ON THE REFERENDUM.


3. GOV:

-- (U) PRO-CHAVEZ ACTIVIST LINA RON AND A BAND OF BOLIVARIAN
CIRCLE MEMBERS HAVE ESTABLISHED CAMPS ON THE GROUNDS OF THE
CNE BUILDING, AND PLEDGE TO "PROTECT" THE CNE FROM ANY
OPPOSITION INVASION.

-- (U) THE GOV IS ALSO SPONSORING A YOUTH MARCH FOR FEBRUARY
11 THROUGH 13, CREATING WHAT THE OPPOSITION SAYS IS COVER TO
BUS IN HUNDREDS OF PRO-CHAVEZ TOUGHS TO INTIMIDATE OR ATTACK
OPPOSITION MARCHERS.

-- (C) EXILED CTV LABOR LEADER CARLOS ORTEGA CLAIMED THE GOV
PLANS TO USE THE OPPOSITION MARCHES ON APRIL 13 AND 14 AS AN
PRETEXT TO LAUNCH A SELF COUP, IN WHICH THE PRESIDENT WOULD
DECLARE MARSHAL LAW, SUSPEND THE CONSTITUTION, AND ARREST OR
OTHERWISE REMOVE ALL OPPOSITION LEADERS. CTV LEADER MAUAL
COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRUARY 11 THAT HE DID NOT BELEIVE ORTEGA'S
CLAIMS WERE ACCURATE.

-- (U) POLITICAL ALLIES OF THE PRESIDENT HAVE GONE PUBLIC
WITH ALLEGATIONS OF COUP-PLOTTING AND WARN OF
OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED VIOLENCE.

-- (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS.

END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
CNE: NEW CONFUSION ON NUMBER OF QUESTIONABLE FORMS
-------------- --------------


4. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE FRANCISCO DIEZ TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT DURING A MORNING MEETING WITH CNE DIRECTORS
EZEQUIEL ZAMORA (OPPOSITION) AND JORGE RODRIGUEZ (PRO-GOV) ON
FEBRUARY 11, THEY ASSURED HIM THEY WERE AWARE OF THE SERIOUS
ISSUE OF WHOLESALE INVALIDATION OF SIGNATURES. DIEZ SAID THE
CNE NOW CLAIMS THAT THERE ARE ONLY 3,000 SIGNATURE FORMS (OR
30,000 SIGNATURES) THAT ARE BEING QUESTIONED, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWN-GRADE FROM THE 65,000 FORMS (OR 650,000 SIGNATURES)
DESCRIBED ON FEBRUARY 10. ZAMORA AND RODRIGUEZ AGREED THAT
THE CARTER CENTER WOULD PRESENT SOME TECHNICAL ALTERNATIVES
TO THE CNE FOR DEALING WITH THE ISSUE.


5. (U) CNE PRESIDENT OSCAR BATTAGLINI ANNOUNCED LATER
FEBRUARY 11 THAT THE SIGNATURE FORMS FILLED OUT IN THE SAME
HANDWRITING (THE SO-CALLED "PLANILLAS PLANAS," SEE REFTEL)
WOULD NOT BE NULLIFIED. INSTEAD, BATTAGLINI SUGGESTED THAT
THE CNE WILL PUBLISH A LIST OF QUESTIONABLE SIGNATURES AND

CARACAS 00000503 002 OF 002

RSON TO A CNE OFFICE.

--------------
MARCHING ORDERS
--------------


6. (C) THE OPPOSITION HAS ANNOUNCED SEVERAL PUBLIC EVENTS
DESIGNED TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THE CNE'S EXPECTED FAILURE TO
CERTIFY SUFFICIENT SIGNATURES TO SCHEDULE A PRESIDENTIAL
RECALL REFERENDUM BY THE POLITICALLY SYMBOLIC FEBUARY 13
DEADLINE. ENRIQUE MENDOZA ANNOUNCED THATTHE OPPOSITION IS
PLANNING A MARCH ON THE NATIONL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE)
BUILDING ON SATURDAY FBRUARY 14. SUMATE, THE OPPOSITION NGO
THAT MAINAINS DIGITIZED COPIES OF OPPOSITION SIGNATURE
SHETS, TOLD POLOFF THAT THEY WILL HAVE TWO THOUSAND
VOLUNTEERS ARRAYED AT A RALLYING POINT NEAR PLAZA ENEZUELA
IN THE CAPITAL WITH PRINTED COPIES OF TE SIGNATURES.
DEMONSTRATORS WILL RECEIVE A PRINTD PHOTOCOPY OF THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SIGNATURE LINE T CARRY IN A MARCH TO THE CNE
HEADQUARTERS.


7. C) OPPOSITION SOURCES HAVE TOLD POLOFFS THAT SEVERL
LEADERS IN THE BROAD OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC COODINATING
COMMITTEE (DCC) HAD HOPED TO HAVE A MASIVE DEMONSTRATION ON
FEBRUARY 13 TO MARK THE 30-AY DEADLINE FOR A DECISION ON A
REFERENDUM FROM TE CNE, BUT SUMATE LEADERS PREFERRED TO
MOBILIZE HEIR VOLUNTEERS ON FEBRUARY 14 FOR TECHNICAL
REASONS. THE DCC NOW PLANS TO HAVE A SMALLER MARCH TOTHE
CNE ON FEBRUARY 13, COMPOSED OF A SMALL CADR OF OPPOSITION
LEADERS, TO PUBLICLY DEMAND A RESPNSE ON THE REFERENDUM.


8. (C) THE GOV AND ITS SPPORTERS ARE PLANNING TO COUNTER THE
OPPOSITION ARCHES WITH DEMONSTRATIONS OF THEIR OWN.
PRO-CHAEZ ACTIVIST LINQ%QQH,ING AND WARN OF OPPOSITION-INSTIGATED IOLENCE.

CTV LEADER MANUEL COVA TOLD DCM ON FEBRARY 11 THAT ORTEGA
HAD NOTHING TO BACK UP THESE LLEGATIONS, AND THAT HE SIS NOT
BELIEVE TEH GOV AD A SHORT-TERM PLAN FOR AN AUTOGOLPE. JUAN
BARETO, A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY FROM THE CHAVISTA-ALIED
BLOC FOR CHANGE (BLOQUE DE CAMBIO) PARTY ANOUNCED ON
FEBRUARY 10 HE HAD INFORMATION OF AN OPOSITION PLOT TO
INCITE VIOLENCE TO COVER THEIR PLANNED COUP D'ETAT. ISMAEL
GARCIA, A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY FROM THE PRO-CHAVEZ
PODEMOS PARTY, ALLEGED THE OPPOSITION MARCH WOULD PROCEED TO
THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE IN MIRAFLORES, HOPING TO INITIATE A
REPEAT OF THE EVENTS OF APRIL 2001.


9. (C) CHAVEZ AND HIS SUPPORTERS CONTINUE TO ALLEGE USG
COLLUSION WITH HIS OPPONENTS. THE OFFICIAL GOV TELEVISION
STATION RAN A STORY ON FEBRUARY 10, 2004 ALLEGING THAT MARIA
CORINA MACHADO, A DIRECTOR OF OPPOSITION NGO SUMATE, HAS
RECEIVED MONEY FROM THE USG. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF
CHAVEZ'S FEBRUARY 9 TELEVISED REMARKS IN WHICH HE ACCUSED THE
USG OF FUNDING OPPOSITION FORCES BENT ON HIS REMOVAL
(SEPTEL).
SHAPIRO


NOTE: SVC FOR GRABLED TEXT SECTION 02 OF 02

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