ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK ON SIGNATURE COUNT

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000407

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: ONE STEP FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK ON SIGNATURE COUNT

REF: A. CARACAS 00312


B. CARACAS 00310

Classified By: Mark Wells, Acting Political Counselor, for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Technical and organizational problems, suspected
employee sabotage, and lethargic decision making continue to
stymie progress of signature verifications collected to
convoke recall referendums on President Hugo Chavez and 67
National Assembly deputies. National Electoral Council (CNE)
President Francisco Carrasquero stated January 30 that the
CNE would not make the February 13 verification deadline.
The 40-person Superior Technical Committee began work on
February 3. The CNE's decisions to send GOV-collected
signatures back through the physical verification stage,
produce signature form copies for the GOV's campaign to prove
"megafraud," and its inability to make decisions on verifying
thumbprints or establish norms for the next stages of the
process suggest more delays are imminent. End Summary.

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Recall Drives Plod Along
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2. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) progress verifying
signature drives to convoke recall referendums on President
Hugo Chavez and 67 National Assembly deputies continues at a
slower than expected pace. The CNE announced January 29 that
they had started the transcription of signatures collected to
recall President Hugo Chavez on January 28, the second of a
seven-stage process in the signature verification process.
By February 2, members of the opposition Democratic
Coordinator (CD) claimed Jorge Rodriguez, CNE Director and
President of the CNE's National Electoral Board (JNE),told
them the transcription process for the Chavez drive was
completed. (Note: OAS observers inform us that 90,000 of
380,000 signature forms against Chavez - about 25 percent -
have not been transcribed as they are awaiting reviews by the
Superior Technical Commission.)


3. (C) CNE employee (Civil and Electoral Registry Commission)
Diego Acevedo told poloff January 29 that the signature forms
to recall opposition deputies were more than half way through
the transcription process (Stage 2 of verification).
However, the CNE announced January 30 that they would require
those signatures to go through the initial physical
verification stage again because they had been approved using
a less strict standard than the signatures gathered to recall
Chavez. The CNE was almost finished physically verifying
signatures collected to recall pro-GOV deputies on January
29, according to Acevedo. He said enough signatures had
already been invalidated to discount 11 of the 30 pro-GOV
deputy drives.

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Recall Holdups, Fraud, and Shenanigans
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4. (C) Jorge Rodriguez confirmed publicly February 2 that the
number of rejected signature collection forms suddenly spiked
upwards during the physical verification of presidential
recall signatures. He said the source of the "abnormalities"
has been determined and employees involved have been fired.
Acevedo claimed some Chavista transcriptionists were applying
stricter standards to anti-GOV signature forms, such as
overvigorously rejecting signatures because of transposed
identification numbers, legibility issues, and thumbprint
quality and were altering data, to include filling out blank
spaces. He suspected CNE employees would overrule the
"sabotage" committed by temporary workers during the next
stages of the verification (cross-check, quality control, and
Superior Technical Committee review),but not before burying
the process in a mountain of unnecessary work.


5. (C) OAS observers told us transcription delays are caused
by lack of a consistent supply of signature forms to
transcribers, insufficient manpower, salary issues, and
problems with software and technical support. Staffing is

particularly problematic for the night shift. Acevedo
claimed significant delays are caused by absenteeism
(estimated at 15 to 20 percent by an OAS source, ref b) and
deliberately slow work by Chavista employees who make up
about 70 percent of the workforce in the physical revision
and transcription stages of the process. Carrasquero claimed
80 percent of the regular CNE employees were allied to the
opposition in response to recent criticism that the CNE was
sending qualified employees on "vacations" and hiring hoards
of Chavistas in an attempt to pack the CNE. OAS reported
January 31 that the Quality Control process had not started
for any of the drives. The 40-person Superior Technical
Committee (CTS),the group that will review rejected
signatures, began work on February 3.


6. (U) During his weekly televised address February 1, Chavez
praised National Assembly Deputy Luis Tascon's efforts to
obtain certified copies of the signature forms requesting a
presidential recall. Chavez promised to dedicate an upcoming
address to exposing the supposed fraud. Tascon is
spearheading efforts by the GOV's electoral organizers, the
"Comando Ayacucho," to initiate an investigation into
signature collection fraud, such as signatures of the
deceased, from citizens living abroad, or for signature forms
that are not accounted for on daily tally sheets (actas).
Tascon announced January 31 that the CNE agreed to oversee
the photocopying of opposition signature forms with both
opposition and GOV observers present, although Comando
Ayacucho will cover the cost. He estimated the copies would
be completed by mid-week. OAS reports confirm that
photocopying started January 31 at the unanimous consent of
the CNE directors and related the concern that this could
further delay the process. Comando Ayacucho plans to collect
complaints February 6-8 at voting centers national-wide from
citizens who suspect their signatures were used illegally.
Tascon said a report documenting the "megafraud" will be
presented at a press conference tentatively planned for
February 12. (Comment: The CNE plans to publish the identity
numbers of those who signed the petitions. Hence, this
operation seems designed to generate public attention for the
GOV's "megafraud" theory. End comment.)

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Whither the Thumbprints
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7. (C) No decisions have been made regarding verification of
thumbprints on signature forms. According to the February 1
edition of daily El Universal, French company Sagem estimated
it would take at least three weeks to verify 500,000 thumb
prints. The article also questioned the technical ability
and resources of another potential contractor, Smartmatic, to
verify the thumbprints. According to a November 2003 report
from the Ministry of Interior and Justice, 3.24 million
records with citizen thumbprints which would be used to
verify the signature form prints have not been labeled or
filed.

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Opposition Refuses to Give CNE Unqualified Support
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8. (U) Following Chavez's January 15 statements that he would
respect the CNE's decision "whatever that decision may be,"
GOV leaders have consistently badgered the opposition to make
a similar claim. Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel
characterized the CD's response as "a grave insult to the
members of the CNE ... by inferring that they will produce a
decision that's neither transparent or lawful." CD spokesman
Americo Martin said February 1 that it would only respect the
results of the CNE's verification process if it was
"transparent," a message consistent with comments of most CD
leaders the previous week. The CD has taken no formal
position on whether or not it will unconditionally accept the
CNE's verdict. (Comment: In his January 30 Diplomatic Corps
greeting speech, Chavez said he would obey the CNE ruling,
and even step down if he lost the referendum, "as long as
this was done with respect for the constitution and without
pressure (chantaje)" -- a message not dissimilar to the
opposition's, but the opposition has not spun it as well.)

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Deadlines: Redrawing Lines in the Sand

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9. (U) Members of the opposition alliance Democratic
Coordinator (CD) met February 2 with Rodriguez to urge the
JNE to stick to the February 13 deadline to conclude the
verification process. On January 30, CNE Director Francisco
Carrasquero confirmed the CNE would not complete the
verification process by February 14, the end of the 30-day
time limit for verification that officially started January

13. He added the CNE was in the process of "readjusting" its
timetable and a new deadline would be announced within days.
Rodriguez announced January 29 that a new CNE committee would
release an exact date and new schedule within 24 hours. A
formal announcement had not been made by February 4.


10. (C) US President Jimmy Carter predicted a March 1
conclusion of the process after meeting with the CNE on
January 27 (ref a). Acevedo predicted a final announcement
between Feb. 29 and the first week of March. From the
opposition perspective, this is the third delay since the
opposition delivered the Chavez signatures December 19. The
CNE has pointed to the immense workload and unforeseen
difficulties incumbent to overseeing more than 60 referendum
drives, a new function for the Venezuelan electoral
institution.

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Sumate Unveils Database
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11. (U) The civil organization Sumate unveiled a computerized
database of 388,000 signature collection forms calling for
Chavez's recall. Petition signers can use their
identification numbers to locate the digitally scanned forms
they signed. After comparing the data with the Permanent
Electoral Registry (REP) and accounting for entry errors and
blank entries, Sumate concluded more than 3.1 million valid
signatures were collected. During the last week of January,
Sumate showed the database to the diplomatic corps,
journalists, and President Carter, among others. The group
plans to deliver copies of the database to the OAS and Carter
Center.

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Comment
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12. (C) The CNE continues its beleaguered march toward
signature verification. Symbolic of the one step forward,
two steps back verification process, the formation of the
Superior Technical Committee showed progress, but was
undermined by an absence of rules the group needs to start
its job. The elusive fingerprint check and the publication
of seven million identity numbers also remain significant
hurdles. International observers - notably the Carter Center
- continue their public support for the CNE. Our message
should continue to be one of support for the CNE as the
independent arbiter of the process.
SHAPIRO


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