VENEZUELAN GOVERNORS: ELECTIONS, POLLS, AND HEALTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000369

SIPDIS


NSC FOR C. BARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN GOVERNORS: ELECTIONS, POLLS, AND HEALTH
CARE

Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) President Chavez, though buoyed by the spread of
benefits and end of year spending, will likely suffer a hard
drop in popularity when the National Electoral Council (CNE)
announces a referendum, a group of Venezuelan Governors told
the Ambassador January 14. The four Governors (including
metro Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena) also commented on the
irony of the opposition appearing to be anti-elections when
it was seeking to keep the focus on the referendum and away
from regional elections. The Venezuelan leaders also
commented on President Chavez's attempt to use international
reserves for programs and the status of Cuban doctors in the
country. End Summary.


2. U) The Ambassador hosted a dinner January 14 to discuss
Venezuela's political situation with Governor Didalco Bolivar
(MAS -- Aragua State and an ally of Chavez),Governor Eduardo
Lapi (Convergencia -- Yaracuy State),Luis Lippa (Alianza
Civica -- Apure State),and Mayor Alfredo Pena (Independent
-- Caracas). Governor Enrique Mendoza (COPEI -- Miranda
State) accepted, but was unable to attend. DCM and PolCouns
accompanied the Ambassador.

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What About Chavez?
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3. (C) Bolivar said President Chavez has three options:
accept a referendum, go for a constitutional amendment, or
resign. He asserted that Chavez will not accept a
referendum. Lapi commented that even he would resign if
faced with a referendum because the office holder is running
against himself. Caracas Mayor Pena called the idea of
Chavez pushing for a constitutional amendment a non-starter.
The people, he said, would not accept having their "voice,"
i.e., the recall referendum, taken away from them. Pena also
ruled out the possibility of Chavez resigning. There would
be immediate chaos, he asserted, with Chavez supporters
quickly jumping ship.


4. (C) Alluding to public comments by opposition leaders
that regional elections affect the referendum negatively for
the opposition, the Venezuelan leaders commented on the irony
of the opposition appearing not to want elections. Lapi
defended the comments, saying the point is that the focus
should be on the referendum. Of course the opposition should
register candidates and prepare to compete, he told the
group, and they will do so. Apure Governor Lippa noted that
the comments were another indication that the "center" is out
of touch with the regions. Using his situation, where Accion
Democratica (his old party) still supports his rival, Lippa
said Caracas leaders want to impose candidates without
relation to the possible support or popularity they may
enjoy. Bolivar added that even Chavez's Fifth Republic
Movement (MVR) suffers from it. The only difference, the
Aragua Governor noted, is that in AD and COPEI, a group
decides and in the MVR it's one person.

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Poll numbers
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5. (C) Regarding Chavez's standing in the polls, Yaracuy
Governor Lapi predicted that the President's numbers would
decline immediately after the National Electoral Council
(CNE) declares that there will be a referendum. He
speculated that the drop could be as much as 10 percentage
points, i.e. to about 30%. Aragua Governor Bolivar noted
that once the CNE makes the declaration, Chavez becomes a
lame duck. Repeating Mayor Pena's observation about the
effect of a Chavez resignation, Bolivar said Chavez
supporters would quickly begin to jump ship. He observed
that Chavez rose in the polls through the spreading of
benefits and end-of-year bonuses, but noted that support is
not permanent. Lapi recounted some of his experiences with
populist opponents and noted that "people want more than
handouts." Politically, they only go so far, he said.

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The Signatures
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6. (C) The guests concurred that the number of signatures
collected by the opposition to petition for a recall
referendum against President Chavez is real. Chavez, they
agreed, did what he could to limit opposition efforts. In
Apure, Lippa commented, even the Bolivarian Liberation Force
(FBL),an armed group believed to be promoted by Chavez
supporters, intimidated people. Bolivar told the group that
Chavez learned too late how bad things were going for him
with the opposition signature drive. His political command
deceived him, Bolivar reported, and after second day he
learned from military officers the true status of things.
Because of this delay, the closing of airports and other
efforts to impede the petition drive had less effect. Lapi
commented that Chavez supporters -- who Bolivar described as
hard-core believers in Chavez's revolution -- could not help
but see striking difference between their signature drive a
week before and the opposition effort. By the second day,
Lapi said, they were getting along with opposition, and not
only that, they were continuing to do so now. Bolivar noted
that this experience has convinced all that the opposition
has collected enough signatures for a recall.

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Central Bank Billion
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7. Addressing President Chavez's push to get the Central
Bank of Venezuela to make available $1 billion from the
country's international reserves for the agricultural sector,
Aragua's Bolivar asserted that Chavez will get the money. He
added, however, that the President does not really want the
money per se. What he wants is control of the bank, he said.
Pena noted that the people see the issue in simple terms:
There are $21 billion sitting there idle, why not use some of
it for the "benefit" of the country? Lapi pointed out that
for much of the Chavez audience, there is no understanding of
the inflationary impact that acquiescing to Chavez's demand
would have.

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Cuban Doctors/Health Care
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8. (C) The Governors and Pena concurred that the Cuban
doctors brought by Chavez are providing a service to
Venezuela. Each noted having found ways to work with them.
Pena noted, however, that the real problem is that the
national government is seeking to change how Venezuela's
health-care system operates. He and Lippa pointed out that
the government is demanding that 60% of the money destined to
the states for the health sector be used for the Cuban
doctors, leaving them without adequate resources to operate
existing hospitals and clinics under their jurisdiction. The
force behind the revolutionary changes, they said, is Health
Minister Roger Capella, who has long-standing sympathies with
the Cuban system.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) With this latest of regular conversations over
dinner at the Residence, the Governors once again provided
interesting insights into various hot topics of the day.
That Chavez may lose support quickly is speculation that
merits further watching, not only for electoral
possibilities, but also for how it may provoke other
reactions. Lapi (Yaracuy) and Bolivar (Aragua) are certain
to be nominated by the opposition and the Chavistas
respectively and almost certain to be reelected. Lippa
(Apure) is confident he can be reelected, but AD is promoting
another candidate. (Lippa broke away from AD and formed his
own party.) Pena is in dire shape with only 12% support in
Metro Caracas and MVR gunning for him.
SHAPIRO


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