RED MAP IN VENEZUELA: WHAT CHAVEZ WON IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003432

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: RED MAP IN VENEZUELA: WHAT CHAVEZ WON IN THE
REGIONALS

REF: CARACAS 03382

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b).

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Summary
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1. (C) Pro-Chavez mayors won 270 of 337 municipalities in the
October 31 regional elections, up from the previously held

115. The National Electoral Council settled the one
remaining dispute in the governors' races November 4, giving
the victory to the pro-Chavez challenger in Carabobo State.
International observers, largely from electoral authorities
in the region, issued a statement calling the elections
transparent and trustworthy and praising the automated voting
system. The GOV called its win "a consolidation of
democracy," while opponents warned that President Hugo Chavez
now controls most political institutions in Venezuela. Zulia
State Governor Manuel Rosales, one of two opposition
Governors elected, is likely to increase his visibility as a
principal opposition leader. End Summary.

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Chavismo Takes Lion's Share of Mayoralties
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2. (U) Pro-Chavez candidates won 270 of 337 mayoralties
(including the Caracas federal district) in the October 31
regional elections (ref),according to preliminary results
from the National Electoral Council (CNE). The Chavista
sweep is a net gain of 155 mayoralties. Accion Democratica
candidates reportedly won 50 mayoralties, with Primero
Justicia (PJ) finishing a very distant third with three
mayoralties. PJ candidate in Sucre Municipality in Caracas
Carlos Ocariz, who had rejected the preliminary CNE results,
conceded to incumbent Mayor Jose Vicente Rangel Avalos, the
son of Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel. Despite being
declared the loser initially by the CNE, pro-Chavez Maracaibo
Mayor Giancarlo DiMartino was proclaimed the winner after all
the tally sheets were considered.

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Opposition Governors Drop Challenges
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3. (C) Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, the head of
the Coordinadora Democratica, conceded his defeat to Fifth
Republic Movement (MVR) candidate Diosdado Cabello November

3. Mendoza's aides told poloff November 2 their own
tabulation of the tally sheets gave the victory to Cabello by
18,000 votes. The failure of Accion Democratica poll workers
to provide copies of the tally sheets hindered their
tabulation of results to present a challenge. They conceded,
nonetheless, that the information indicated Mendoza had lost.



4. (C) For Carabobo State, the CNE proclaimed pro-Chavez
challenger Luis Felipe Acosta Carles the winner November 4.
Incumbent Henrique Salas Feo challenged the initial results
prepared by the local electoral authorities. The dispute led
to an agreement by CNE director Jorge Rodriguez to review and
re-count of the tally sheets November 3. When Salas Feo
complained that the CNE was not abiding by the agreement,
Rodriguez and CNE President Francisco Carrasquero called him
a liar, told reporters that CNE regulations do not allow for
the actions Salas Feo claimed were needed to settle the
dispute and refuted the incumbent's claims. Rodriguez
proclaimed Acosta Carles the winner of the election. Two
hours later, the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court
rejected Salas' petition to stay the results based on alleged
procedural violations. Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary
General Leopoldo Puchi told poloff November 3 he thought some
of Salas' arguments were without merit and an attempt to
raise doubts about the announced results.


5. (C) In Yaracuy State, one of the closest of the
gubernatorial races, incumbent Eduardo Lapi also conceded on
November 3. Prior to his concession, the National Guard took
over the Governor's Palace to ensure the change in office.
Lapi had challenged the CNE's results announced November 1,
saying they were based on too small a sample of returns. He


conceded after the local electoral board proclaimed his rival
from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement, Carlos Jimenez, the
winner.

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Undisclosed International Observers Back CNE
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6. (C) A group of international observers convoked by the CNE
November 1 praised the transparency and pacific nature of the
elections. The statement purports to be the consensus view
of electoral officials from the region, the Andean
Parliament, and local diplomats. The statement specifically
notes that the automated voting system, attacked by the
opposition for fraud after the August 15 presidential recall
referendum, is an "important advance in the level of
confidence and control of the results." The CNE invited the
observers just days before the election. In Caracas, the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs circulated a note to all
embassies and diplomatic missions inviting Ambassadors to
participate. We did not respond. The EU ambassadors
discussed the invitation, according to an official at the
British Embassy, but declined due to the late hour of the
invitation and lack of minimum conditions to mount a credible
observation mission. The Mexican DCM participated in the
observation but refused to join the statement due to concerns
that the observers did not have sufficient access to truly
pass judgment on the elections. (Note: It was for similar
reasons that the EU did not observe the presidential recall
referendum.)

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Comment
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7. (C) In addition to the five branches of the GOV, President
Hugo Chavez now has control of nearly all state and 80% of
local governments. GOV domination of the regions raises
questions about the future health of decentralized and
pluralistic government in Venezuela. This is a devastating
loss of political space for Chavez opponents, who make up at
least 40 percent of the Venezuelan electorate. Rosales
appears to be the last man standing in the opposition, but he
is a regional star with baggage from his AD roots as well as
from his apparent support of the short-lived administration
of Pedro Carmona during the April 2002 coup. He may, in
fact, be the perfect candidate for Chavez to beat in the 2006
elections. For the MVR, with overwhelming control of the
government will come increased responsibility and the need to
satisfy voters.
Brownfield


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2004CARACA03432 - CONFIDENTIAL