VENEZUELA REGIONAL ELECTIONS: VIEWS FROM CARABOBO

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003342

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REGIONAL ELECTIONS: VIEWS FROM CARABOBO
STATE


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reason 1.4(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Political party representatives in Carabobo State each
told Poloff October 21 that polls showed its candidate in the
lead in the gubernatorial race, and in a majority of mayoral
races. Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) representative
asserted that Chavista candidates would sweep all the races
on October 21. Proyecto Venezuela dismissed COPEI and
Primero Justicia concerns about the electoral registry, but
joined in their worries about high abstention rates and
possible violence if voters turned out but were not allowed
to count paper ballots after polls closed. End Summary.

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Proyecto Venezuela's Solitary Can Do Attitude
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2. (C) Maria Eugenia Hands, Director of Communication for
Proyecto Venezuela (PV) in Carabobo State, confident that
current PV Governor Henrique Salas Feo would be reelected on
October 31. Hands told Poloff October 21 that current polls
showed Salas Feo ahead of MVR candidate Luis Acosta Carles by
about 30 points, and third party candidate Jose Gregorio Ruiz
with no more than 5% of the vote. A high abstention rate
could hurt Salas Feo, Hands said so she qualified it as a
"close" race. Hands said PV was also likely to win four or
five of the 13 mayoralties, while other opposition parties
would probably win three. Hands speculated that after the
regional elections the divide between PV and the opposition
could grow wider. She pointed out that while many opposition
parties supported Salas Feo for governor, for most the
support was in name only.


3. (C) Proyecto Venezuela was not concerned about the
problems with the electoral registry, Hands noted, because
the registry has always had problems. Instead, she said, the
party is worried about how the votes will be counted when
polls close. Hands said the PV campaign strategy is to
MOTIVATE the middle class to vote, EDUCATE the lower class on
how to use electronic voting machines, and have voters stay
at the polls and GUARD their votes on election day. Hands
asserted that the middle class in Carabobo were most likely
to abstain because of conflicting messages and a sense of
defeat from the "stolen" referendum. While the middle class
had to be motivated, Hands said, lower class voters were
inexperienced with technology and needed to be educated on
how to vote to make sure they did it correctly.

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Full Steam Ahead: MVR
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4. (C) Movimiento Quinta Republica's (MVR) Secretary General
for Carabobo State, Luis Medina told Poloff October 21 that
the MVR has taken advantage of the opposition's weakness and
their division and would continue to do so in the regional
elections. Medina asserted that MVR candidate Acosta Carles
would become governor of Carabobo, and the MVR would sweep
all 14 mayoralties. (Note: Carabobo State has 14
mayoralties; one of which is an administrative municipality
and does not elect a mayor on October 31.) Medina compared
the opposition to spoiled children who if given concessions
would continue to make more outrageous demands or claims.
According to Medina, this showed it would be impossible to
work with the opposition. He said the CNE could not agree to
the opposition's requests for fear of opening a floodgate of
requests and challenges.

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Chavez's Little Party That Could: Podemos
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5. (C) On October 21, poloff also met with Oscar Perez,
Regional Secretary General of Carabobo State for Podemos.
Perez asserted that Podemos was backing Chavista candidates
in Carabobo and hoped to contribute 20% to the Chavista vote.
In the regional elections, Perez said, political parties
were more important than in the referendum and were working


in tandem with Comando Maisanta. Perez predicted that
Chavista candidates would win 9 of the 13 mayoralties and the
gubernatorial race Perez noted that according to four recent
polls, MVR candidate Acosta Carles was ahead of Proyecto
Venezuela's Salas Feo by seven points.

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Reasons for Worry: COPEI and Primero Justicia
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6. (C) COPEI's Lucio Herrera and Hector Pinero told Poloff
October 21 that while Proyecto Venezuela's Henrique Salas Feo
was ahead by 10 points, his selfishness had cost him a
stronger lead in the polls and the active support of other
opposition parties. If abstention rates are higher than 50%,
Herrera said, then Salas Feo would probably lose the
governor's race. Herrera estimated that the opposition had a
good chance of winning 7 of the 13 mayoralties, including
Valencia, the state capital and largest city in Carabobo.
Herrera and Pinero said they were concerned about the
electoral registry and the conflicting message of fraud and
abstentions that voters were receiving from different
opposition political parties. They pointed out that if
opposition voters did go to the polls on election day, the
possibility of violence was high unless the CNE instructed
poll workers and the military guarding the polls to allow the
people to observe the paper ballots being counted after the
polls closed.


7. (C) Local Primero Justicia representatives said Salas Feo
was ahead in the polls by a small margin, and asserted that
the opposition would win 7 of the 13 mayoralties. They
reiterated Proyecto Venezuela and COPEI concerns about
conflicting messages, high abstention rates and possible
violence if voters turned out to vote but were not allowed to
observe paper ballots being counted after polls closed.
Primero Justicia's Ruben Dario noted the importance of
winning the gubernatorial race and the Valencia mayoralty to
protect civil liberties and the right of the people to march
in protest.

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Comment
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8. (C) Despite some opposition concerns, political party
representatives in Carabobo believe his/her favored candidate
is doing well in a close race. The most important factor, as
they note, is the possible abstention, and one that will hurt
candidates identified as opponents of President Hugo Chavez.
Governor Henrique Salas Feo has a solid political base and
the foundation incumbency provides. His boorish chief rival,
known for his televised burp during a controntation with a
Coca Cola distributor, however, has struck a chord with lower
class voters and fully enjoys the financial backing of the
central government...a combination that may prove to be hard
to beat.
Brownfield


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