Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS3341
2004-10-28 19:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

EFFICIENCY TRUMPS POLITICS IN VENEZUELA'S BOLIVAR

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM VE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003341 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: EFFICIENCY TRUMPS POLITICS IN VENEZUELA'S BOLIVAR
STATE


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

-------
Summary
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003341

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: EFFICIENCY TRUMPS POLITICS IN VENEZUELA'S BOLIVAR
STATE


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

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Summary
--------------


1. (C) Both sides in the race for governor of Bolivar State
are confident their candidate will be elected in the regional
elections on October 31. Efficiency, rather than politics,
is the main theme in the campaign, and both campaigns hope to
draw supporters away from their opponent. The GoV wants to
defeat a former Chavista, and to control this important
industrial area. In conversations with PolOff the sides
agreed that Gov. Antonio Rojas Suarez has been an effective
administrator, and that Gen. Fernando Rangel Gomez, the
Chavista candidate, has been an effective leader of the
Corporacion Venezuelana de Guayana, the state owned
industrial giant of the region. Regional newspapers are
split in their predictions. End Summary.

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Rojas Suarez Optimistic
--------------


2. (C) PolOff spoke with Bolivar State Governor Antonio
Rojas Suarez, and State Secretary General Waldo Jose Negron
October 25. Rojas said that, based on daily tracking polls
the tendency in favor of his reelection is irreversible. He
would not specify numbers, but explained that he expected
significant support from Fifth Republic Movement (MVR)
members and other backers of President Hugo Chavez. Negron
noted that Rojas Suarez had been the president of the state
MVR until his 2003 break with Chavez. He also said the MVR
is divided in Puerto Ordaz, the largest city in the region,
because the current MVR mayor is running for reelection
without the party's support. Rojas Suarez said Chavista
support for Rojas Suarez would help offset the effect of
abstention among hard core opposition supporters.


3. (C) Rojas Suarez said his administration had achievements
to back up his campaign for reelection, including building 50
schools, renovating 160, creating an integrated emergency
dispatch system, a trauma hospital and a virtual library.
Asked where the resources came from for all the projects, the
Governor complained about central government disbursement
delays, but noted that funds eventually arrive. He said that

to get the payments, governors have worked arrangements with
local banks.


4. (C) Rojas Suarez said many voting centers in Bolivar were
manual, due to their isolation, and that he had a strong lead
in these districts. As for the electronic voting centers, he
said he had "heard" that the people in the barrios were going
to demand that the voting boxes be opened. He stressed that
in contrast to the recall referendum, the regional elections
have a law that specifically refers to counting the votes
publicly.

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Maisanta
--------------


5. (C) Marco Rojas (a cousin of the Governor) of Chavez'
Comando Maisanta campaign, told PolOff October 26 that Gen.
Francisco Rangel Gomez was leading 57% to 31% over Rojas. He
dismissed the support Rojas could expect among Chavista
voters as "insignificant", while pointing to significant
support for Rangel among businessmen in Bolivar. He asserted
that as head of the Corporacion Venezuelana de Guayana (CVG),
Rangel had had extensive dealings with the business
community, which was now translating into political support.
Marco Rojas said the Governor had done a good job, but had
been unwilling to work with the CVG and the central
government, even before breaking with Chavez. He said
Bolivar State would develop faster with three forces (state
government, municipal government, and CVG) pushing in the
same direction.


6. (C) Marco Rojas told PolOff that the Maisanta campaign
was trying to prevent abstention, to give the elections
legitimacy. He said they would work with the opposition to
allay any suspicions, but only under the orders of the
National Electoral Council (CNE). They would not support or
allow the opening of all the voting boxes, alleging that it


would take too much time, though he suggested that the two
sides could reach an agreement on election day on which boxes
to open. (Note: CNE rules do not allow for this.)

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Local Press POV
--------------


7. (C) Robinson Lizano, editor of the conservative Correo
del Caroni, told PolOff October 25 that independent polls
show Rojas Suarez with 26-7% of the vote, Rangel with 22-3%,
and two other opposition candidates with 8% and 6%
respectively. He said the campaign was between two leaders
with good administrative records. Lizano noted that Rangel,
while president of the CVG, had failed to solve Puerto Ordaz'
serious water problems, which are the responsibility of CVG,
and that this could hurt him in the election. He said the
issue of Rojas Suarez' break with Chavez has not been major
campaign issues. Chavez, Lizano said, also forgave Rojas
Suarez after April 2002, and continued to work with him until

2003. Lizano alleged that Rangel was shamelessly using CVG
resources to finance his campaign.


8. (C) Lizano said no leaders in the region had called for
abstention. Anecdotal evidence, however, indicated it would
be very high among the middle and upper classes of Puerto
Ordaz, he said. Among the reporters on his staff, he
estimated 20 of 25 would not vote. Lizano estimated that
abstention would be near the traditional 40%. He said the
two military leaders in the state, National Guard CORE 8
Commander Gen. Alberto Betencourt Nieves, and 5th Jungle
Division Commander Gen. Wilhelm Beccerra, were strong Chavez
supporters, who would not hesitate to favor the Chavista
candidate any way they could. He said there were divisions
in Chavismo in the region, in part over the substitution of
the MVR candidate for mayor of Puerto Ordaz for a PPT
candidate and over a fight for control of some unions in CVG,
which might favor Chavista dissidents crossing over to Rojas
Suarez..


9. (C) Gerardo Gonzalez, head editor of the Nueva Prensa de
Guayana, told PolOff October 25 that he believed the Chavista
candidates would win the elections as a result of the high
opposition abstention. He said the Rojas Suarez government
has a good reputation among Chavistas, while Rangel has the
support of 40,000 employees of CVG who experienced his
successful management, and the association with Chavez.
Gonzalez said that the people of Bolivar State have learned
that you get more resources if you are with the GOV, than if
you are against it.

--------------
Comment
--------------


10. (C) Bolivar State seems unusually blessed to have two
good managers to chose from on October 31. As one would
expect in a regional election, many local factors will play
important roles in this race, including water, past
achievements, and party divisions. Despite complaints about
fraud in the recall referendum, Rojas Suarez talked about the
race in normal and political terms. He seems confident that
the electoral law gives the opposition much greater control
than during the referendum. Rangel, for his part, is not a
politician, and seems to have been chosen as a trustworthy
stand-in for Chavez. That, and his record at CVG, make him a
formidable challenger for a successful opposition governor.
The key to the race will be whether Rojas Suarez can peel
away enough Chavista support to offset middle class
abstention.
Brownfield


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2004CARACA03341 - CONFIDENTIAL