CHALK ONE FOR CHAVEZ IN ANZOATEGUI

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003340

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CHALK ONE FOR CHAVEZ IN ANZOATEGUI

Classified By: DCM STEPHEN G. MCFARLAND FOR REASON 1.4 (D)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Candidates are battling against voter apathy for
gubernatorial, mayoral, and state legislative positions in
the oil-rich Anzoategui State, currently controlled by the
opposition. The administration's candidate, National
Assembly deputy Tarek William Saab, is close to President
Hugo Chavez and is a vociferous critic of the USG. The
opposition's eleventh-hour candidate, mayor Antonio Barreto
Sira, is popular and charismatic. The opposition, however,
will have to rebound quickly from its divisions and
reputation for poor leadership at the state and local levels
to be competitive on October 31. Suspicion of fraud may nail
the opposition's coffin by keeping their voters away from the
polls, leaving a hard-core Chavez supporter as governor in a
strategic state. End summary.

--------------
Atmospherics
--------------


2. (U) Intense campaigning marks the oil-rich but
underdeveloped Anzoategui State, in which the opposition
controls the state government and 12 of 21 mayoralties.
Propaganda litters the streets, signposts, and newspapers of
the Barcelona-Puerto La Cruz corridor, which contains over
half of the state's 1.4 million inhabitants. In
advertisements for President Hugo Chavez's favored
candidates, Chavez's face is ubiquitous. At a Chavista rally
site, activists wearing red gather all day and celebrate at
night. Opposition supporters clad in political t-shirts
distribute campaign literature at roadside stands and at red
lights. While Chavista and opposition activists are so
polarized that they rarely associate with each other, most
state residents lack confidence in all politicians, according
to government, business, and academic officials.

--------------
The Gubernatorial Candidates
--------------


3. (C) Chavez's candidate is National Assembly deputy Tarek
William Saab Halabi (MVR),an outspoken critic of the USG who
has made a national issue out of his revoked US visa. Saab,
of Lebanese extraction, was denied a visa in 1997 because of
his links to terrorist activities. He also violated the
terms of a 2000 waiver he received for an official visit to
Washington. A former human rights lawyer and poet, Saab won
the trust of the President when he visited Hugo Chavez in
prison in 1992. Saab hails from the city of El Tigre in
central Anzoategui and returns from Caracas on the weekends
to campaign. His campaign cites the "North American Opinion"
polling firm's report that he has the support of 67.5 percent
of the state.


4. (U) Opposition candidate Antonio Barreto Sira (AD) is a
longtime politician and the popular mayor of Freites, the
fifth-most populous of Anzoategui's 21 municipalities. (The
opposition currently controls 12 of the 21 municipalities.)
According to the host of a political television show on the
local channel Telecaribe, the public "is drawn" to the
charismatic Barreto. State director of Primero Justicia
Gustavo Marcano told PolOff Barreto's popularity in Freites
stems from his construction of grandiose public works
projects--including a ten-lane, olympic-sized swimming
pool--with revenue contributed by oil companies. According
to the pollster "Data Consult," Barreto Sira on October 24
had a five percentage-point lead on Saab. About 18 percent
of those polled, however, remained undecided or failed to
respond.

--------------
Opposition Discord
--------------


5. (U) The splintered opposition did not rally behind
Barreto Sira until the night of the CNE-imposed October 21
deadline to drop out of the race. Candidates Barreto Sira
and incumbent governor David de Lima--a former Chavista now
affiliated with MAS--had agreed that they each would choose

one firm to poll the public, and the least popular candidate
would withdraw, according to National Assembly deputy Alfonso
Marquina (AD). On October 20, the press announced that both
polls had picked Barreto Sira. Meanwhile, David de Lima's
secretary told the Embassy that the rivals were still

SIPDIS
negotiating behind closed doors. According to the tabloid
Tal Cual, De Lima decided to withdraw in exchange for AD's
support for some undisclosed mayoral candidates.


6. (U) In the local elections, each municipality has
several candidates on the ballot, many of whom have chosen to
stay in the race. For example, there are 15 mayoral
candidates in the opposition-dominated municipality of
Urbaneja, including the state party leaders of Primero
Justicia and COPEI. Three of these 15 candidates are
sympathetic to the administration, although in each case of
such a divided "oficialista" ticket, Chavez's support for
only one candidate is manifest.

--------------
Opposition Mismanagement
--------------


7. (C) The former head of Puerto La Cruz's chamber of
commerce described de Lima to PolOff as a governor with few
accomplishments. De Lima's tourism director blamed
"political instability" for the state's inability to attract
vacationers, although the state, with stunning ocean and
desert scenery in the north and the Orinoco River in the
south, has significant potential. On October 25, 120 police
officers demanding unpaid benefits raided the governor's
house, apprehended his bodyguards, and fired shots in the air
to drive the intervening police chief from the scene. The
officers remain on strike.


8. (U) Waste has characterized the term of office of
Urbaneja's opposition mayor, who also has declined to seek
reelection. According to Primera Justica's Marcano, Urbaneja
has a larger law enforcement budget than Caracas's Baruta
municipality, yet its streets are unsafe.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) That Saab enjoys the support of 67.5 percent of the
electorate in Anzoategui stretches the imagination.
Abstention is likely to be high among sympathizers of Chavez
and the opposition. Nonetheless, Saab will likely carry the
day because the specter of fraud will probably keep more
opposition than pro-government voters away from the polls.
And, Saab has been campaigning for nearly one year -- he has
worked hard. The opposition may also have trouble retaining
a majority of the mayoralties. End comment.

Brownfield


NNNN
2004CARACA03340 - CONFIDENTIAL