FRANCISCO ARIAS CARDENAS' OUTLOOK ON CHAVEZ AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003215

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: FRANCISCO ARIAS CARDENAS' OUTLOOK ON CHAVEZ AND
VENEZUELA


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reason 1.4(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Former Zulia State Governor, Francisco Arias Cardenas,
told the Ambassador on October 14 that President Hugo
Chavez's antagonism had served Chavez well in the past, but
he was now looking to improve relations with the U.S. Arias
asserted that the President would not let the differences
escalate to those the U.S. has with Cuba. However, Arias
said, Chavez would react with aggression to any criticism
from the U.S. government, because he assumes the U.S. intends
to destroy his government. Arias, who is again running for
governor of Zulia State, also claimed that the upcoming
regional elections would redefine the political face of
Venezuela in Chavez's favor, with the opposition's mistakes
costing its candidates dearly. End Summary.



2. (C) The Ambassador and Poloff met October 14 with
Francisco Arias Cardenas, a candidate for governor in the
western border oil state of Zulia. Arias, an ex-army officer
who also participated in the 1992 coup attempt with President
Hugo Chavez, brought Jorge Garrido, Secretary General of the
Union political party that Arias founded.

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Chavez's Mentality
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3. (C) The Ambassador told Arias he believed many people were
awaiting the outcome of the presentation of his credentials
for an indication of future U.S.-Venezuelan relations. Arias
asserted that Chavez's antagonism towards the U.S. had served
him in the past, but he was now looking to improve relations
while maintaining respect and dignity. Chavez, he said,
would prefer not to let the confrontation escalate to the
same level that Castro has with the U.S. The Ambassador
asked if Chavez would be able to manage pragmatic
collaboration on some topics even though the U.S. would
continue to disagree with him on regional issues and
democratic institutions. Arias responded that Chavez is
paranoid about U.S. intention to destroy him, and those fears
will be reconfirmed by those around him at the first sign of
disagreement or criticism from the U.S. Chavez's paranoia
will cause him to react aggressively, Arias asserted. Arias
said it might be helpful if the Ambassador specifically
pointed out to Chavez that a disagreement was not an attack,
and that on a wider scale many topics existed on which the
two countries could cooperate.

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Political Outlook
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4. (C) Arias asserted that the upcoming regional elections
would redefine the political face of Venezuela in Chavez's
favor. The big opposition political parties, he said, will
lose most of the races. The opposition parties lost their
way and need to be rational and accept that some of Chavez's
ideas are good, Arias asserted, while still rejecting
authoritarian, centralist and anti-democratic tendencies.
The "missions", especially the Cuban doctors and teachers,
are making a big impact on the people, Arias said. Chavez
has control of many institutions now, Arias noted, and in the
next two years those who oppose him will lose more and more
of their resources. Arias said he foresaw Chavez being
re-elected in 2006, thus maintaining power for the next eight
years. There are no alternatives that opposition parties can
offer, Arias asserted. Miranda State Governor Enrique
Mendoza, he said, suffered a big defeat with the referendum,
and will likely be defeated again. Arias also asserted that
Manuel Rosales, the current Zulia state governor running for
reelection against Arias, would not be a possible leading
political figure since he is likely to be convicted of
treason for the April 2002 events regardless of whether he
wins or loses the regional election.

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Boarder Issues
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5. (C) Arias said kidnapping and paying "protection money" to
criminals and guerrillas is common in Zulia State. He said
drugs and drug trafficking were a problem, but now there was
no way to identify how extensive the problem was because
there were no satellite images or inspections by the armed
forces. The people are afraid to confront the Colombian
problem directly, Arias said, and the local, regional and
national governments compete rather than cooperate, so no one
addressed border problems or crime.

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Comment
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6. (C) Francisco Arias Cardenas' insight into Chavez's
mentality was interesting given their past connection in the
military service and the 1992 coup attempt. Arias, a former
governor of Zulia state who lost to Manuel Rosales, had
reasonable predictions about the political outlook, but of
course, he is not completely unbiased, particularly with
regards to his rival Rosales.
McFarland


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