COORDINADORA LOSES SOME LESSER LIGHTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003013

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: COORDINADORA LOSES SOME LESSER LIGHTS

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Five groups nominally associated with the Venezuelan
opposition -- including political parties Alianza Bravo
Pueblo and Causa R -- announced their separation from the
Coordinadora Democratica on September 21. The groups
criticized the Coordinadora's handling of the referendum
campaign and its apparent willingness to participate in the
October 31 regional elections without changes to the
electoral process. Separately, opposition governors and
mayors formed a new committee to take over management of the
regional elections campaign. These are natural, tactical
moves based on opposition groups' relative readiness for the
elections. End summary.

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Minor Groups Leave The Coordinadora
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2. (U) Several opposition political parties, NGOs, and
individuals announced on September 21 their separation from
the Coordinadora Democratica. They asserted the Coordinadora
is sending the mixed message that opponents of President Hugo
Chavez should proceed to the October 31 regional elections
even though the National Electoral Council (CNE) has not made
changes to the electoral process that the Coordinadora
denounced as fraudulent. Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP),Causa
R, Un Solo Pueblo (headed by William Ojeda),Vision
Emergente (an NGO led by Cipriano Heredia),Fuerza Liberal
(an NGO headed by Haydee Deutsch),Rafael Alfonso (an
opposition businessman),Oswaldo Alvarez_ Paz (former foreign
minister),and Carlos Blanco (a political analyst) all
withdrew their support from the Coordinadora, according to
press reports. ABP President Antonio Ledezma said the
opposition should not participate in the regional elections
without guarantees of the transparency of the process.


3. (C) Causa R leader Andres Velazquez said the time of the
Coordinadora had passed with the August 15 recall referendum.
Velazquez said the Coordinadora failed to catch the CNE's
fraud during the referendum and has done nothing to improve
conditions for the next elections. He told poloff September
22 he is in discussion with several parties about a new
movement to be formed after the regional elections "that will
offer Venezuelans a new alternative" from the current
political context. Velazquez predicted a crippling defeat
for the opposition in the regional elections.

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Governors and Mayors Pick Up The Baton
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4. (U) Opposition governors and mayors announced September 22
the formation of an electoral committee to manage the
regional elections and negotiate conditions with the CNE.
Yaracuy state Governor Eduardo Lapi described the opposition
governors and mayors as "generals with the troops for this
battle" and boasted of a decisive win for opposition
candidates. Lapi announced that he will coordinate the
committee, joined by Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales and
Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena. Lapi, a former
COPEI member now with Convergencia, said the major opposition
parties support the formation of the committee.


5. (U) Notably absent from the group was Carabobo state
Governor Henrique Salas Feo (Proyecto Venezuela) and
Anzoategui Governor David de Lima (formerly with the Movement
to Socialism, MAS),the latter of whom is embroiled in a high
profile dispute over public finances in his state.
Coordinadora leader and Miranda state Governor Enrique
Mendoza was present for the announcement and made brief
remarks in support of the new committee. Lapi said the
committee will take over CNE negotiations from the
Coordinadora, which will focus on documenting the fraud
allegations surrounding the recall referendum.

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Comment
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6. (C) These developments are tactical responses to the
opposition's basic dilemma: How can Venezuelans participate
in elections they know to be unfair in the light of the
August 15 "fraud?" Ledezma and company are minor political
groups with no real prospects in the elections. Ledezma had,
in fact, left the Coordinadora prior to the signature appeals
process in May and was not invited back. Velazquez has only
nominally associated himself with the Coordinadora, depending
on the political winds. Regarding the new campaign
committee, it is reasonable that the opposition governors and
mayors take center stage in managing their own elections.
These elected leaders have been meeting regularly for several
months to discuss common issues and seem to work well
together. The new committee, at least, will spell the
opposition's battle-worn leadership. The committee faces a
tall task, however, in beating the well organized and
relatively more unified forces of Chavismo.

Brownfield


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2004CARACA03013 - CONFIDENTIAL