OAS REFERENDUM WRAP-UP GETS SPUN BY BOTH SIDES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002903

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE OAS
SUBJECT: OAS REFERENDUM WRAP-UP GETS SPUN BY BOTH SIDES


Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.4(d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The report issued by OAS Secretary General (SYG) Cesar
Gaviria on September 13 gave ammunition to both the GOV and
the opposition regarding the question of fraud in the August
15 presidential recall referendum. The GOV played up
Gaviria's admonitions to the opposition to begin to accept
the referendum results. The Coordinadora Democratica called
the report "adequate and favorable," finding in it criticisms
of the GOV. The Coordinadora formally presented its
allegations of fraud on September to the National Electoral
Council (CNE),which has 20 days to rule. The Coordinadora
also requested a nullification of the CNE's results at the
Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court on September 15.
Though the possibility of reversQg the referendum results
are practically nil, the opposition is nonetheless seeking to
exhaust legal and administrative remedies. End summary.

--------------
GOV Finds the Silver Lining
--------------

2.(U) Venezuelans had a mixed reaction to OAS Secretary
General Cesar Gaviria's final report on OAS efforts to
relieve Venezuela's political crisis, released on September

13. The GOV emphasized Gaviria's repeated advice to the
opposition that it "get on the path to accepting" its defeat
in the August 15 recall referendum against President Hugo
Chavez. Minister of Interior and Justice Jesse Chacon told
reporters September 14 the GOV respects the report but
disagrees with some parts of it. Chacon said Gaviria's
message is more or less that Venezuela has been unable to
settle its political crisis peacefully because the opposition
refuses to accept the results. Venezuelan OAS Ambassador
Jorge Valero told state television on September 16 that
Gaviria's report is personal, does not represent the OAS's
official position, and even contradicts the report given by
Brazilian PermRep Valter Pecly, who headed the observation
mission during its final stage.

--------------
Opposition Sees Political Backing
--------------


3. (C) Coordinadora Democratica representative Asdrubal
Aguiar called Gaviria's report "appropriate and favorable,"
suggesting Venezuelans read it carefully to understand
Gaviria's position. Felipe Mujica, Secretary General of the
Movement toward Socialism (MAS),told poloff September 16 the
Gaviria's report has an anti-Chavez message. Mujica said
Gaviria lightly criticized the opposition so as to make his
stronger attacks against Chavez, such as Gaviria's assertion
that the Chavez's policies are eroding fundamental democratic
principles in Venezuela, more credible. Aguiar said
Gaviria's report implicitly endorses the creation of an
international group to investigate the referendum and
determine whether there was fraud.


4. (C) Coordinadora representative Jorge Casado told polcouns
September 13 that the Coordinadora plans to make
presentations of its fraud allegations throughout Venezuela.
Fraud report drafter Tulio Alvarez began visiting Venezuelan
states going to Zulia September 14 to present the
information, Casado said, adding that other opposition
figures would also make presentations. Coordinadora
representatives will also visit other countries, funding
permitted, to present their case. Casado said they first
intended to visit "Friends" governments such as Mexico.

-------------- --------------
Coordinadora Contests Referendum At CNE, Supreme Court
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Coordinadora representatives also presented a formal
objection to the National Electoral Council (CNE) on


September 9. The Coordinadora documented 1,077 reports of
irregularities related to the presidential recall referendum.
Coordinadora legal advisor D'lsa Solorzano told reporters
they had specifically presented proof of manipulation of the
electoral registry, which if found true by the CNE board
should result in the nullification of the referendum results.
(The Alvarez project also alleges irregularities in the
electoral registry.) The CNE has 20 working days to respond
to the Coordinadora's request. Coordinadora negotiator
Enrique Naime told reporters his organization had requested
relevant documents from the CNE to facilitate the
investigation on August 23, to which the CNE did not respond.


6. (U) On September 15, Solorzano petitioned the Electoral
Chamber of the Supreme Court for a nullification of the
election based on violations of the constitution and of the
Organic Law of Suffrage and Political Participation.
Specifically, Solorzano claims the CNE violated electoral law
by having poll workers transmit data before printing the
tally sheets. Solorzano said the legal motion would require
the Electoral Chamber to request all relevant documentation
from the CNE. In addition, an NGO named Active Citizens
(Ciudadania Activa) petitioned the Electoral Chamber to order
the suspension of the October 31 regional elections until
problems with the electoral process experienced during the
referendum are sorted out.

--------------
CNE Directors Already Decided
--------------


7. (U) The pro-Chavez directors of the CNE board commented
publicly on the opposition's request. Director Oscar
Battaglini said the referendum had already been decided,
which caused the Coordinadora to demand that Battaglini
recuse himself from deciding on the case. Battaglini
refused, arguing that he is not a member of a formal
tribunal, but rather a representative of a branch of the
Venezuelan government. CNE President Francisco Carrasquero
defended his institution for its handling of the referendum,
saying that political actors are trying to impugn the CNE
with allegations of fraud and tricks. Director Jorge
Rodriguez said the CNE would treat the opposition's request
fairly, proposing even that the CNE's deliberations be made
public.

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) Gaviria's report gave the opposition a shot in the
arm, though it does not seem to be having a lasting effect.
Chavez opponents are exhausting legal avenues for contesting
the referendum, which they believe necessary while moving on
politically. The opposition's chances of legally overturning
the referendum results are slim-to-none. Both the CNE and
the Electoral Chamber are firmly in the hands of Chavez
sympathizers who seem to have already made their decisions.
It is possible these appeals could unearth some new
information that exposes vulnerabilities with the CNE's
electoral process. This might help the opposition exact fair
conditions from the CNE for the October 31 regional
elections, but chances of that are similar to those of
overturning the referendum results.

Brownfield


NNNN
2004CARACA02903 - CONFIDENTIAL