VENEZUELAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS: WHAT SHOULD BE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002885

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS: WHAT SHOULD BE AND
WHAT IS


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reason 1.5(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Venezuela's gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional
deputy elections, scheduled for October 31, are cloaked in
uncertainty with little more than six weeks before the date.
Procedurally, there are questions regarding who the members
of the regional and municipal electoral boards will be, if
these local boards will tally and announce the results as the
law provides, how many new members of voting tables will be
assigned, and if the Electoral Registry will be opened to the
voters for changes and corrections. With allegations of
fraud and irregularities involving the August 15 referendum
still in the open, opposition participation remains
uncertain. End Summary.

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The Timeline and the Reality
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2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced
gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional deputy elections are
scheduled for October 31 and released a timeline leading up
to the elections. The CNE is currently discussing where,
how, and by whom the votes will be tallied, according to
Diego Acevedo, an assistant in the office of CNE Director
Sobella Mejias. There is no guarantee, he said, that the
tally will be done by the regional and municipal boards as
the law provides. These local boards are also to check and
certify the electronic voting machines. However, there has
been controversy surrounding the local boards since the CNE
removed some of their members for having signed the petitions
for the recall of President Hugo Chavez. The CNE replaced
them with "unbiased" representatives before the August 15
referendum, effectively giving Chavez supporters control of
the regional boards. While opposition candidates are calling
for the reinstitution of equitable regional and municipal
boards before the regional elections, Acevedo said it was
unlikely the CNE would remove the most recently appointed
board members.


3. (U) Between September 20-21, the CNE also is to appoint
poll workers. On September 2, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez
said the CNE would consider doubling the number of electoral
tables from 12,000 to 24,000. Rodriguez also noted that the
creation of new voting centers was under discussion.
Doubling the voting tables would mean appointing 60,000 new
poll workers (5 members per voting table) before the regional
elections.


4. (C) The CNE is scheduled to publish the electoral register
between September 14-16. According to Diego Acevedo, the CNE
has not determined if the electoral register will be opened
for registered voters to correct or update their information,
including the disputed additions to the electoral registry
and voting center transfers before the August 15 referendum.
The Register, however, was open from September 4-8 for
persons who recently became of voting age (18) to register
and for voters who were unintentionally eliminated to file a
complaint.

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Testing, Testing
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5. (U) On October 3, a voting simulation is scheduled to test
the automatic voting machines and the transmission of data
from the voting centers to the totalization centers. There
also is to be a test of the totalization and
telecommunications programs from October 8-12. The CNE
already conducted a voting simulation September 3 to
determine the amount of time it would take each voter to vote
with the automatic touch screens. According to the Minister
of Communication and Information, Andres Izarra, the delay
time is up to eight minutes because of the complexity of the
voting and the number of possible candidates.

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Unanswered Questions For The Opposition
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6. (C) With allegations of fraud and irregularities involving
the August 15 referendum still in the open and significant
changes to the electoral process unlikely, opposition
participation remains uncertain. Acevedo also said the
Coordinadora's inability to unite and form one list of
demands for the CNE was a weakness the CNE would take
advantage of by acquiescing to the most inconsequential
proposals from the "laundry list". Some of the various
demands from the political parties and NGOs that form the
Coordinadora are a complete audit of the Electoral Registry,
a total manual count, the elimination of blank voting
notebooks, equally constituted regional and electoral boards,
the reinstitution of the voting table members who were
removed (up to 18,000),the auditing of software and hardware
for the electronic voting machines, and a public audit of the
voting results.

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Chavista Outlook
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7. (C) Chavez's Movimiento Quinta Repulica (MVR) has objected
to the October 31 regional election date, proposing regional
elections for October 10 instead. According to Acevedo, this
minor disagreement is being used as a smokescreen to show CNE
decisions are not always partial to Chavez. MVR Deputy
William Lara said if the date was not changed to October 10,
the MVR candidates would still win on October 31. Lara also
said the MVR was closer to achieving unity for the regional
elections and that sustained efforts and dialogue would
produce visible results within a month. He noted, however,
that in some municipalities the MVR would not be able to
achieve complete unity, but reiterated that alternate
"revolutionary" candidates would be "self-excluding"
themselves by challenging Chavez's chosen candidate. Lara
was referring to MVR Deputy Desiree Santos' statements to the
press that the candidates Chavez supported were chosen by the
electoral base, and not simply appointed, so candidates
running against them would be "self-excluded."

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Comment
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8. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) has demonstrated
that strict adherence to the electoral laws is not the norm
in Venezuela. Improvization on rules and regulations will
likely continue to mark the preparations for the regional
elections. The opposition is facing unfavorable terms like
biased regional and municipal boards with little hope of
achieving significant changes in the electoral process before
the regional elections. The traditional opposition voters
are disillusioned and many are not likely to vote under
current electoral conditions. To stay alive in the regional
elections, the opposition needs to unify competing candidates
and motivate its electoral base.
Brownfield


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2004CARACA02885 - CONFIDENTIAL