OPPOSITION DIGS IN FOR THE LONG FIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002759

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DIGS IN FOR THE LONG FIGHT

REF: CARACAS 2705

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission,
for Reasons 1.4 (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica plans to contest the
National Electoral Council's (CNE) certified results
announced August 26 that President Hugo Chavez won the August
15 recall referendum. The Coordinadora is working toward
documenting its case. A Coordinadora commission headed by
constitutional lawyer Tulio Alvarez_ has enlisted a team of
mathematicians to document the alleged irregularities in the
referendum results. The NGO Sumate is proceeding with its
own analysis but is troubled by harassment from both GOV and
opposition sympathizers. The Coordinadora's work may turn
out to be only an exercise in closure for the opposition. In
the meantime, however, Chavez opponents continue to pursue
the fraud allegations. End summary.

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Fraud Commission Head Accuses GOV of "Plan B"
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2. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica's Fraud Commission (ref)
legal coordinator Tulio Alvarez_ told Emboffs August 24 he
believes the GOV decided in July to enact a "Plan B" to
commit fraud to win the August 15 recall referendum against
President Hugo Chavez. Alvarez_ said the GOV in the runup to
the referendum had worried about a close race and initiated
its plan to ensure victory. Alvarez_ theorized that the GOV
either altered the voting machines or altered their
transmission to the National Electoral Council (CNE). He
thought the GOV changed the contents of the boxes containing
the paper receipts -- perhaps 20 percent before and 20
percent after the vote -- to match the tally sheets of the
corresponding machines. Alvarez_ also questioned the GOV's
ability to augment the electoral registry by two million
votes the two months prior to the referendum, suggesting the
voters may never have existed.

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Coordinadora's Strategy To Contest Results
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3. (C) Alvarez_ said this is a case of "blackmail of the
evidence," wherein all the proofs needed to demonstrate fraud
are in the hands of the GOV, leaving the Coordinadora with
mostly circumstantial evidence. Alvarez_ said he plans to
release a preliminary report in mid-September with the
purpose of raising public awareness of irregularities in the
election. Alvarez_ said he planned to release a definitive
report by mid-October. The Coordinadora has 20 working days
after the August 26 CNE announcement of the final referendum
results to contest them. Alvarez_ said the Coordinadora plans
to file its objection five days before the expiration date to
buy additional time for Coordinadora investigators. He
admitted there was little chance the CNE would act on the
Coordinadora's objection, but noted the action would preserve
the opposition's right to appeal to the Supreme Court (TSJ).

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Sumate Embarks on Parallel Track
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4. (C) In meeting with Emboffs August 24, members of the NGO
Sumate Maria Corina Machado and Roberto Abdul said they, too,
had a team of computer experts and mathematicians analyzing
the election data. Machado doubted the exercise would yield
any definitive proof of fraud. She said Sumate is reaching
out to world-recognized experts in electoral fraud,
especially in the United States, to examine the case of the
referendum.


5. (C) Machado and Abdul said they and other Sumate members
had received threats by telephone and e-mail from GOV

sympathizers over the NGO's refusal to endorse the referendum
results. Machado added that opposition groups were also
critical of the NGO because it appeared to endorse the CNE's
results on August 16 when it was revealed that Sumate's quick
count showed Chavez had won. Machado complained that this
fact had been used by the GOV, former President Jimmy Carter,
and the international press to imply Sumate's endorsement.
Machado said that after receiving an apology from Carter for
misrepresenting Sumate's position, he nevertheless continued
to cite the NGO's quick count as evidence of transparency in
the process.

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Comment
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6. (C) Alvarez_ is a serious and politically savvy attorney
with a reputation for high-profile cases, such as a
corruption suit against Chavez for suspicious oil sales to
Cuba. His willingness to take this case is an advantage for
the Coordinadora. An appeal of the CNE's referendum results
will ultimately be fruitless because both the CNE and TSJ are
controlled by the executive branch. The real issue is
whether the Coordinadora's report turns up enough evidence to
cast doubt on Chavez's landslide win and, thus, his
legitimacy. If it does not, the report may still serve as a
face-saving measure to soften the political blow of losing
the referendum.

McFarland


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2004CARACA02759 - CONFIDENTIAL