Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2669
2004-08-19 19:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION ALLEGES ELECTRONIC FRAUD IN REFERENDUM

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002669 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ALLEGES ELECTRONIC FRAUD IN REFERENDUM

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002669

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION ALLEGES ELECTRONIC FRAUD IN REFERENDUM

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Miranda state Gov. Enrique Mendoza told reporters
August 18 the opposition would not participate in the audit
of election results agreed to by the National Electoral
Council (CNE) at the suggestion of the OAS and Carter Center.
The Coordinadora instead wants an audit that would look at
the software used in the August 15 presidential recall
referendum. Chavez opponents found similarities in results at
specific voting machines that they allege to be statistically
highly improbable. A computer analysis of Baruta municipality
results by the Coordinadora found other anomalies leading
them to claim that an algorithm was at work that increased
the number of no votes and capped the number of yes votes.
Coordinadora representative presented part of the information
to international observers. CNE director called the
opposition allegations irresponsible. He said the CNE would
proceed with the audit, noting that the audit would not
change the results of the election. End Summary.

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Opposition Won't Play
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2. (U) Miranda state Gov. Enrique Mendoza, leader of the
Coordinadora Democratica, ordered Coordinadora supporters
around the country August 18 not to participate in an audit
by the National Electoral Council (CNE) of the August 15
referendum results. The audit, negotiated by the OAS and
Carter Center, would involve a check of the paper receipts
from 150 electoral tables with the information the electronic
voting system transmitted during the referendum. Speaking to
reporters, Mendoza showed alleged evidence of fraud the
Coordinadora claims took place during the August 15
referendum. He showed statistics which allegedly indicate
that voting machines were programmed to produce a
pre-determined number of yes and no votes. He also showed
machine-by-machine results with the same number of yes votes
in different centers in Baruta municipality (Caracas),which
Mendoza said was the result of an algorithm which
automatically increased the number of no votes in each
center. (Note: Mendoza's public presentation was a disaster,

with him tripping over his own explanation.)

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Improbable Similarity in Results
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3. (U) The possible irregularities in the voting table
numbers were first revealed by Bolivar state Governor Antonio
Rojas Suarez August 17. Rojas told reporters that several
tally sheets from his state showed that machines in one
voting center each had 133 yes votes. Bolivar state Legal
advisor J.J. Rendon appearing on all news channel
Globovision, showed several original tally sheets indicating
that results from machines at the same voting table indicated
the same number of yes votes or a lower number. This pattern
repeated for nine tables for which Rendon had the tally
sheets, which he alleged is statistically highly improbable.
Chavez opponents continue to examine tally sheets from around
the country, and as of 1900 local August 18, similar
anomalies had been found in Zulia, Aragua and Nueva Esparta
states, according to press reports. Gov. Rojas and Rendon met
with the Ambassador and PolOffs late on August 19 and
presented much more detail. We urged them to make the
presentation to OAS/CC.

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Fooling the Quick Count
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4. (U) A pattern was evident when looking at the results at
the voting machine level, but is lost when numbers are
examined at the mesa level. This makes the discrepancy

undetectable to the "quick count" method used by the national
and international observers, according to Rendon, because the
quick count looks at random tally sheets. These random
checks would not reveal this type of anomaly, since a
different upper limit for the yes votes appear to have been
set. The anomaly is only apparent if one looks at the tally
sheet from machines at the same table, according to Rendon.
Rendon said only a recount of the paper ballots would reveal
the true results of the referendum.

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Alleged Algorithm Found
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5. (C) Coordinadora electoral control chief Amado Dounia
August 18 showed PolOff an analysis of Baruta municipality
voting results by machine. (Transmitted to Department via
e-mail.) The study shows different voting machines
throughout Baruta repeating the same number of yes votes and
a determined number added to the no column. Dounia
speculated that the electronic voting machines may have
transmitted their information to the CNE correctly, but then
received a reverse transmission of data, either from the main
CNE server, or another GoV server connected to the system.
Dounia said the fraud may have affected as few as 4,000 of
the 20,000 receipt boxes, and that the CNE or GoV elements
involved in the fraud might be able to tamper with them to
hide the evidence.

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Coordinadora Pushes for Audit
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6. (U) After the finding of the statistical anomalies by
Chavez opponents August 17, National Assembly deputy, and
Coordinadora CNE liaison, Nelson Rampersad told reporters on
August 18 that the Coordinadora had asked the Carter Center
and the OAS mission to conduct a more exhaustive audit of the
August 15 presidential recall referendum. Rampersad said the
Coordinadora had asked the international observers to count
the paper receipts from more than the scheduled 150 electoral
tables, and to look at the electronic voting machines'
programming, as well as the programming of the central server
of the CNE.

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CNE Says No WAY
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7. (U) CNE director Jorge Rodriguez told reporters the CNE
refused to change the terms of the audit it is conducting.
Rodriguez argued that the similarity in voting results, was
to be expected in a polarized election. He showed statistics
of similar voting patterns in several voting tables.
(Comment: Rodriguez knocked down a straw man, since the
opposition's argument is not that the results were similar at
the mesa level, but when individual machines were compared.)


8. (C) Carter Center director Jennifer McCoy told the
Ambassador late August 18 that the audit would proceed with
or without Coordinadora observers. She said the audit will
deal with all of the Coordinadora's concerns except the
question about the server -- a concern which she said Sumate
itself had already discarded. The Carter Center's chief
technical observer, Edgardo Mimica, told the Ambassador that
he was already examining the patterns which the Coordinadora
claims to have uncovered. The actual count of the paper
receipts began at 8:00 a.m., August 19.

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Comment
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8. (C) The referendum results are not being accepted by
opposition leaders or supporters. These irregularities,
though as yet unproven, are more than enough to convince the
opposition they were robbed. The key will be how well the
statistical evidence holds up, and how convincing it will be

for the Carter Center and OAS. If the allegations are indeed
without basis, the only way to get the opposition to accept
the August 15 results, and overcome the "group think" that
they had/had to win, is to fully address the allegations,
which even to an interested observer are difficult to
decipher and understand. Resolving these doubts is also
crucial for the gubernatorial and mayoral elections scheduled
for September 26. Already, there are many -- politicians and
voters -- saying they cannot possibly participate in that
contest. At minimum, the confidence of some 40% of the
electorate (the number which the official result says voted
to get rid of Chavez) has been severely shaken.


9. (C) We cannot discount that part of the rejection of the
results and of the international observers validation of the
results thus far arises from personal political ambitions.
Much has been at stake in the referendum process, and many
politicians and proto-politicians have been projected onto
the national scene. How many will be left by the wayside
will become known as Venezuelans take stock of what
participating in the referendum process has meant. For the
moment, nevertheless, movement towards a "loyal minority
opposition" mode is absent.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02669 - CONFIDENTIAL