CHAVEZ DECLARES REFERENDUM VICTORY - SO DOES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002624

SIPDIS


STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI
NSC FOR CHRIS BARTON
HQ USSOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ DECLARES REFERENDUM VICTORY - SO DOES
OPPOSITION

REF: CARACAS 2616 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Venezuelan National Electoral Council President
Francisco Carrasquero announced August 16 that preliminary
results showed 58% of voters chose not to revoke President
Chavez. Opposition leaders rejected the result, claiming
their exit polls showed that 59% voted in favor of
revocation. International observers have yet to weigh in
officially, but Carter Center representative Francisco Diez
told the Ambassador that the results of their quick count
coincide with the official preliminary results. The
Coordinadora Democratica headquarters was attacked with tear
gas during the night, and workers at Sumate left their
offices temporarily for a number of hours when secret police
(DISIP) personnel deployed near their building. The OAS and
Carter Center planned a press conference at 11:30 AM. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
GOV ANNOUNCES A RESOUNDING VICTORY
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2. (U) Long, slow-moving lines characterized the voting on
Sunday. The polls were originally set to open at 6:00 AM and
close at 4:00 PM, but the sluggish process prompted the CNE
to extend the closing first to 8:00 PM, and a second time
until midnight. Centers were required to remain open as long
as voters were in line, and press reports indicate that votes
were cast as late as 1:30 AM.


3. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco
Carrasquero announced at 3:47 AM local time August 16 on
national TV, that nearly 5 million people had voted not/not
to revoke President Chavez from office, while nearly 3.6
million voted to revoke. He stated that this represented
results from over 94% of all automated voting centers.
Chavez appeared to a crowd of his followers at the
Presidential palace shortly after, claiming a "clean,
transparent and resounding victory," calling it "gift for
Bush" that landed in the "nerve center of the White House."
He characterized the result as "a victory that transcends the
Venezuelan borders, and is also a victory for all Latin
America." He was conciliatory toward the opposition,
inviting "our brothers, come with us to this new period of
moving forward and reconciliation."


4. (C) Chavez then thanked international observers from many
countries (including the U.S.),as well as the OAS and the
Carter Center, implying that they supported the result. At
2:00 AM on August 16, Francisco Diez of the Carter Center
(CC) told the Ambassador that the Carter Center's quick count
(based on printed summaries from a limited number of centers
where observers were present) matched the official
preliminary results announced by Carrasquero. The CC has not
made a public announcement. The OAS has not yet provided
information, publicly or privately. Gaviria and Carter are
supposed to give a press conference at mid-day, August 16.
As of noon, it has not started.

--------------
Sumate Briefs on Its Numbers late August 15
--------------


5. (C) At 9:00 PM on August 15, Sumate representatives
briefed the Ambassador and CODEL Weller and then the Carter
Center and the OAS on their projections for the referendum
results. According to Sumate, the opposition had won 59% of
the vote. Sumate reported collecting data from 20,000 people
from over 300 centers throughout the country. Based on their
data, approximately 7 million people voted by 7:30 PM August
15 and about 8.5 to 9 million people would vote by night's
end. Their exit polls suggested that the "Si" vote garnered


5.2 million votes, or 1.4 million more than the minimum
required to revoke President Chavez. Sumate representative
Roberto Abdul told Chairman Weller and the Ambassador that
Sumate feared that the government would commit fraud in the
night and release false projections by morning. Sumate
presented a more detailed briefing to the CC and OAS at 11:00
PM August 15. Sumate's initial report given to the
Ambassador and the international observers also criticized
the CNE for the extraordinary delays in the voting process
caused by the insufficient number of voting centers and
tables at each center, the unnecessary use of the
fingerprinting machines, and the last-minute changes in
electoral officials at various voting centers.

-------------- mRa(quCoordina tor leader Henry Ramos Allup

publicly rejected the CNE's preliminary results in favor of
"No" announced early August 16. Referring to data collected
by Sumate, which showed the "Si" campaign winning, Ramos said
that the opposition numbers were exactly opposite of those
announced by the electoral body. He pointed out that for the
CNE's numbers to be right, the opposition would have
collected fewer votes in the referendum than it did
signatures to convoke the referendum. He expressed
solidarity with the opposition-affiliated CNE members Sobella
Mejias and Ezequiel Zamora, who denounced CNE President
Carrasquero's preliminary results. While Ramos Allup
denounced the CNE for committing fraud, he did not call
opposition supporters to the streets in protest. Instead, he
said the opposition would fight this peacefully,
democratically and constitutionally. He ended his statement
noting that the opposition had shown their data to the
international observer missions of the OAS and Carter Center
and hoped they would acknowledge their version of the facts.

--------------
COORDINADORA OFFICE TEARGASSED
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7. (C) Daniel Thiman, aide to Miranda state Governor Enrique
Mendoza, told poloff August 16 the Coordinadora's campaign
headquarters in eastern Caracas was attacked with tear gas
during the night. Thiman said the gas forced the occupants
to evacuate; he described the aftermath as "very confusing."
He said they believe the gas was launched from a street which
runs just below the side wall of the Coordinadora's compound.
Thiman said he walked for several blocks with his wife away
from the compound and finally got his car and returned home.
He said National Guard troops had also been spotted close to
a nearby opposition building before midnight. Coordinadora
representative Carlos Figueredo Planchart told Polcouns that
members of the political police (DISIP) had also gone to the
offices of the organization Sumate during the night. The
police deployment, Figueredo said, forced Sumate to evacuate
its offices temporarily.


8. (U) President Carter will meet with Ambassadors of the
Group of Friends countries at 1700.
Shapiro


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