VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 13

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002607

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 13


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.4(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) As the campaigns for the Presidential recall
referendum closed August 12, supporters and opponents of
President Hugo Chavez celebrated, each claiming future
victory. Chavez said he would extend dialog invitations to
opposition leaders who accepted his victory and said he would
step down if he lost. The National Electoral Council (CNE)
will audit one percent of the voting machines chosen at
random August 15 and limit observers' access to the vote
tallying room. Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General
Jose Albornoz, who supports Chavez, told poloff August 13
that Chavez would win the referendum by 10 percentage points.
Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza and Primero Justica
President and assemblyman Julio Borges told the Ambassador
they were confident the "Si" would win the referendum. With
the referendum just a couple of days away, Chavez criticized
the U.S. August 12, alleging a plot against him/Venezuela. He
told reporters that the battle was between the Bush
administration and the Venezuelan people. End Summary.

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Campaigns Close
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2. (U) Hundreds of thousands of opponents of President Hugo
Chavez marched down Caracas highways to attend the opposition
Coordinadora Democratica campaign closing August 12. Smaller
opposition gatherings occurred in four other states outside
the capital. Chavez supporters also gathered to celebrate
the end of the "No" campaign throughout Venezuela on August

12. In Caracas, President Hugo Chavez told supporters during
his campaign closing remarks that he was confident he would
win. He stated that on August 16, he would begin discussions
with opposition leaders who were willing to acknowledge his
victory. Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel also told
reporters that a dialog was possible beginning August 16 but
noted that a dialog did not mean an agreement. Rangel made
clear that while he was willing to listen to the opposition
leaders' concerns, the dialog would not include any
discussions about sharing power. President Chavez swore
during his closing remarks that if he were to somehow lose
the referendum, he would hand over the reins to VP Rangel,
take a small vacation, and return to work after he was
elected in the presidential election that would occur 30 days
later.

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Private Media Faces Inspections
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3. (U) The National Telecommunications Commission (Conatel)
inspected four private television without warning August 13.
Minister of Information Jesse Chacon, speaking from
Miraflores Palace to reporters as the inspections were
concluding, claimed the "routine and legal" inspections were
intended to confirm satellite and microwave transmission
frequencies because of the high demand for such frequencies
expected during election weekend. When the inspections
began, the Conatel personnel told reporters they were there
only on a routine inspection. CNE director told Globovision
that "only a fool (pendejo)" would believe that the
inspections were not related to the referendum.


4. (U) Chacon said Conatel would monitor media transmissions
during the election to ensure they stayed within their
assigned frequencies. Globovision director Alberto Federico
Ravell said the inspections were unusual coming only 48 hours
before the referendum. Ravell also said it was a surprise
for the visits to be unannounced since the media stations
have been in contact with Conatel all week. The inspections
were suspended, and the officials left abruptly without
executing the proper legal paperwork.


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Information Minister Releases Polls
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5. (U) Minister of Information Jesse Chacon told reporters
August 13 that two polls showed Chavez winning the
referendum. Chacon said a poll from McDonough firm in
Washington showed an eight percent lead. A Seijas poll, he
added, also gave the GoV reasons for celebration. Chacon
noted it is against electoral law after the end of the
campaign to release poll data, a detail he skirted with a
grin by not giving exact figures.

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CNE Action
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6. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) clarified the
rules for the post-referendum audit, the role of the armed
force's "Plan Republica", and the role of observers in the
vote tallying room on August 12. The CNE agreed that a CNE
auditing commission would audit 1% of the voting machines, to
be chosen at random at 1 p.m. on August 15. After an Army
General reportedly announced that military personnel would
watch closely how people voted August 12, CNE vice-president
Ezequiel Zamora reminded reporters the military working "Plan
Republica" was not in charge of directing the voting process
for the referendum and asked General Julio Quintero Viloria
to distribute the electronic voting machines that were still
located on military bases to legitimate voting centers.
Zamora said "Plan Republica" was subject to the CNE's rules
and decisions and could not interfere in the voting process.
Zamora said "the CNE has the ultimate authority in electoral
material" and "they (Plan Republica) should maintain
sufficient distance from the voting machines".


7. (C) CNE director Oscar Battaglini said the role of the
referendum observers had its limits, and the observers would
not be allowed into the rooms where the votes were tallied
during a meeting with 150 international observers on August

12. Organization of American States (OAS) mission leader
Edgardo Ries told poloff August 10 the OAS had insisted in
their written agreement on access to the totalization room,
but the CNE demurred. Ries changed the text of the agreement
to include access to "the totalization process." Ries said
he expected to have observers in or around the totalization
room when necessary.


8. (U) CNE President Francisco Carrasquero took time from his
referendum work August 13 to participate in the presentation
of an academic book he had written. Carrasquero told
reporters he would address the nation (in "cadena") on
Saturday night to assure Venezuelans the vote would take
place without incident. Speaking to reporters afterwards,
Carrasquero said that if the vote is close, results may not
be ready to announce on August 15 and speculated that voting
may continue until after midnight.

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Chavez Supporter Predicts Victory
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9. (C) Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose
Albornoz told poloff August 13 that Chavez would win the
referendum by 10 percentage points. Albornoz said the
opposition had committed several errors, especially on the
regional level, during the campaign, and had changed focus
three times. He said the first priority for the government
would be to build "bridges of money" ("puentes de plata") to
the defeated opposition. Albornoz hopes that AD would come
to an understanding with the GoV to re-energize the National
Assembly.

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Pollster's Viewpoint
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10. (C) Consultant and pollster Alfredo Keller told poloff he
was concerned about the high level of undecided voters that
were showing up so close to voting day on August 12. While
he admitted that most of the undecided voters favor the
opposition, he was not sure that they would turn out to vote.
He also pointed out that another way people hid their votes,
in addition to saying they are undecided, is to lie
altogether about their preferences. Keller was sanguine
about the opposition's prospects in Zulia and Carabobo
States, where there is only a nine percent difference between
the opposition and government.

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Opposition Exudes Confidence
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11. (C) The Ambassador had lunch with Enrique Mendoza,
Alberto Quiros Corradi, Enrique Naime, Humberto Calderon
Berti, Hiram Gaviria, Francisco Diez, Rabbi Pynchas Brener
and various ambassadors August 13. The purpose of the
Coordinadora Democratica event was to give the ambassadors an
opportunity to talk to Mendoza. All opposition attendees
were pleased with the campaign march August 12, saying that
between 660,000 and 1 million people attended making it the
largest march ever, even larger than April 11. Mendoza cited
polls and tracking data on the rise at the expense of the
"No" vote. Mendoza also asserted the vote is now 45.2% for
"Si" and 42% for "No" with the rest undecided.


12. (C) Primero Justica (PJ) President and Deputy Julio
Borges told the Ambassador August 13 he was confident Chavez
would be recalled. Borges was concerned, however, that there
was no understanding between the government and the
opposition in the event there are technical difficulties or
violence breaks out on August 15, which Borges feared was a
possibility. The lack of dialog between the Chavez
supporters and opposition leaders, Borges said, made
Venezuelans more dependent on former President Jimmy Carter
and the OAS to mediate and do so quickly if problems arise.
Borges also said he was surprised by how close the polls say
the votes are because it is not a reflection of what Primero
Justicia has observed during their extensive campaigns
throughout the country where they saw an overwhelming "Si"
majority. Borges said that a higher voter turnout would
favor Chavez and increase the risk of a technical system
failure or violence. He noted that regardless of who wins
the referendum, the country must be reunited, which means the
winner must acknowledge the right of the losing side to exist
and begin discussions.

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Chavez Criticizes the U.S.
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13. (U) With the referendum just a couple of days away,
Chavez criticized the U.S., its plot against him/Venezuela,
and told reporters at a Miraflores Palace press conference on
August 12 that the battle was between the Bush administration
and the Venezuelan people. Chavez again accused the Bush
administration of financing the opposition and intervening in
Venezuela. Chavez criticized Secretary Powell saying that
Powell had no right to lay conditions for the recognition of
the results of the referendum. Chavez told his audience
during the 4 hour press conference, "We do not expect much
from Washington, and it doesn't really matter just to us, but
rather the whole world, because that government (U.S.) has
become the number one enemy of the world, number one."
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02607 - CONFIDENTIAL