Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2598
2004-08-12 20:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

LOOKING TOWARD REFERENDUM DAY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE OAS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002598 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID FOR DCHA/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: LOOKING TOWARD REFERENDUM DAY


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.5 (D)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002598

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID FOR DCHA/OTI RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: LOOKING TOWARD REFERENDUM DAY


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.5 (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On August 15, Venezuelans will take a decisive step
in finding a peaceful, democratic electoral solution to the
country's political crisis. Nearly 15 months since the
signing of the OAS agreement, Venezuelans will say whether
President Hugo Chavez stays or goes. The CNE appears ready
for the vote, and the competing sides had their final rallies
August 12. Some doubts about the National Electoral Council
(CNE)'s ability to conduct an impartial recall vote persist,
and the opposition and government's strong belief in the
polls will likely lead to accusations of fraud. The ruling
of the international observers will be key. The streets are
rife with rumors, some likely based on bravado, that
opposition and government supporters are planning violence to
begin as early as the afternoon of August 15 before the polls
close. In addition to violence, the capacity of the voting
and fingerprint machines, degree of transparency, and the
weather will be important factors in determining the outcome
of the referendum and the willingness of either side to
accept the results. Only preliminary results are expected
August 15. End summary.


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Referendum Day
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2. (C) The polls will open on August 15 at 6 am and will
remain open until 4 pm, although all who are in line by that
time will be able to vote. President Chavez and opposition
leaders have told their supporters to line up as early as
possible and are organizing caravans to ensure that voters
get to the correct polling stations. Pollsters and political
party leaders we have talked to expect at least a 70 percent
turn out. Some opposition leaders also say party "brigades"
will be out in force to prevent and/or counter anticipated
voter intimidation by the government. While the majority of
the vote will be automated, due in part to the last minute
reassignment of some voters to polling centers, approximately
30 percent of the vote will be manual as well. International
Observers will be out nationwide, as well as, in National

Electoral Council (CNE) headquarters when the votes are
transmitted. The CNE says they will be able to announce the
results within 3 hours after the polls close. OAS electoral
mission head Edgardo Reis says that while the CNE prohibits
taking a quick count, they will take an informal sample of
the results that they will check against the formal results.
To reduce charges of fraud and the possibility of widespread
violence, the CNE will have to announce the results of the
referendum Sunday night, the Carter Center and OAS will have
to find the process completely transparent, and the winner
will need a large margin of victory.


3. (C) The campaign period ends at midnight on August 12
with each party sponsoring their final rallies in which they
promise the largest turnout of the campaign season. The
Chavistas have overwhelmed the campaign period so far using
government money to print signs plastered all over cities,
and routine presidential addresses that all television
stations were required to broadcasts. In comparison, the
opposition's campaign was late to bloom and relied in some
cases more on supporters painting their cars with "SI"
instead of the placards, due in part to the reluctance of
some businessmen to give to the opposition's cause. The
opposition campaign coordinators also sponsored local
community meetings to get out the vote. All media outlets
showed government and opposition advertisements, according to
CNE regulations. Television shows, including local soap
operas, also had themes that supported, respectively, the
opposition and government positions.


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What Could go Wrong

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4. (C) Despite CNE demonstrations of the fingerprint and
voting machines, we remain concerned that the use of two new
technologies for such an important vote could cause
unforeseen technical problems that delay the vote and prompt
accusations of fraud and/or violence. Technical experts tell
us the fingerprint machines will take 5 to 30 seconds to
process each voter. If, as predicted, some 9.8 million
people turn out to vote, this would present a real challenge
to the new system and cause significant delays that could
turn off some potential voters, particularly if it rains, as
the weather forecast predicts. These problems will also lend
themselves to allegations of irregularities and fraud.


5. (C) Although mid-July Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner poll
suggests that a slim majority of voters believe their vote
will be secret, there are fears that votes will not be
counted correctly or that they will somehow be manipulated
during transmission to the CNE. There is a concern that if
the government, either as a result of exit polls or advanced
warning from the CNE, realizes it is losing, it may order the
sabotage of the voting system or call on supporters to cause
violence (to deter other voters and/or suspend the vote) that
will then be blamed on the opposition. Vice President Jose
Vicente Rangel has already accused the opposition of planning
"acts of terrorism" and the continuing mystery of missing C4
and other explosives fuels this rumor among opposition
supporters. Others predict violence will occur August 16 as
the winners take revenge against the losers. In this
scenario, opposition supporters believe the military and
international community will intervene and ask Chavez to step
down.

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Comment
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6. (C) Both sides have had over a year to plead their case
to the people and now is the hour of the Venezuelan people to
decide who they want to govern them. By now everyone has
made up their minds if they will vote and for whom they will
vote. The belief that the vote is secret may be the ultimate
swing factor. Given the level of distrust the political
parties have for each other and the CNE, international
observation will be the key to keeping the process on track
and improving the chances that the loser will accept the
results.

Shapiro


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2004CARACA02598 - CONFIDENTIAL