MAKING SENSE OF VENEZUELA'S POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002582

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: MAKING SENSE OF VENEZUELA'S POLLS


Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.5 (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) The August 4 release of a poll reportedly by the
Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis (IVAD in Spanish)
showing a majority favoring the recall of President Hugo
Chavez, prompted a fierce response from Minister of
Communication and Information Jesse Chacon, who said he had
seen other polls from IVAD giving Chavez the lead. Felix
Seijas, president of IVAD, denied the poll came from his
company, sparking a wave of speculation about the veracity of
the poll and which side, the opposition or the government had
planted it. On 5 august the former dean of the Central
University of Venezuela (UCV) solved the mystery when he
claimed authorship. Meanwhile, a series of polls have come
out giving each side an advantage over the other. The only
thing that is clear is that Venezuelan polls are no help in
predicting the outcome of the 15 August vote and while
neither side will be surprised if it wins, the loser will
tend to question a loss that contradicts its polling. End
summary.

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Mystery Poll Causes Confusion
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2. (C) A poll released 5 August, originally described as a
poll conducted by the Venezuelan Institute of Data Analysis
(IVAD in Spanish),showed 50 percent were in favor of
recalling President Hugo Chavez and only 44 percent in favor
of retaining him, with 6 percent undecided. The next day
IVAD President Felix Seijas denied the poll came from his
company and cited as proof the fact that his company, unlike
the author of the poll, is on record as not believing in the
so called ni-ni group (those that favor neither Chavez nor
the opposition). Communication and Information Minister
Jesse Chacon immediately denounced the poll as the work of
the opposition's laboratory and blasted the press for
allowing itself to be used as an opposition propaganda tool.
He said other polls in July, including previous IVAD polls,
had Chavez ahead by 10 to 35 points. Former dean of the
Central University of Venezuela (UCV) Rafael Ramirez then
claimed authorship of the poll on August 6. Ramirez said the
poll was an scientific study conducted by a team of highly
respected professors who interviewed 1200 people in mid-June.
He said he did not know how the preliminary results from the
poll were released.

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Polling Predictions for 15 August
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3. (C) Since then a series of polls have been released
putting President Hugo Chavez and the opposition within 6 to
9 percent of each other. A Cifras Encuestadores poll (CECA)
taken 1 August found 55.7 percent would vote to recall Chavez
while 35.5 percent would vote to retain him. Hinterlaces
polled 1500 registered voters in 10 cities and regions and
conducted focus groups with the working class and poor in
five cities from 3 to 18 July. It found 40 percent would
vote to revoke Chavez while 51 percent would vote to retain
him. A Consultores 21 (C21) poll of 1500 registered voters
taken during the last two weeks of July showed 43.5 percent
planned to vote against Chavez while 49 percent favored him.
During conversations with poloff Datanalisis president Jose
Antonio Gil Yepes and Datos president Edmund Saade said their
latest polls were similar to Hinterlaces and C21's results.


4. (C) According to Gil and Saade, the important trend to
focus on is that Chavez has considerably narrowed the 39
percent lead the opposition had in July 2003. The pollsters
noted that Chavez has even gained among the ni-ni, although
they admitted that most still tend to favor the opposition.
Those who are truly neutral comprise about 4-5 percent of
likely voters. The Hinterlaces poll, which indicates Chavez

gained 11 percent of the ni-ni between April and July of this
year, corroborates this trend as well. Both pollsters say
those who are truly neutral comprise about 4-5 percent of
likely voters, while Hinterlaces puts the figure at 14
percent.

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Why Chavez Would Win
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5. (C) According to the focus groups Hinterlaces conducted,
Chavez,s steady rise in the polls can be attributed to
rampant government social spending, the work Chavez is
perceived to be doing for the poor, the economic recovery,
and the image many have of the opposition as troublemakers.
The C21 poll, which like Hinterlaces was conducted among
registered voters, suggests Chavez is benefiting from
perceptions rather than reality. According to the C21 poll,
the Mercal, Barrio Adentro, and Mision Identidad voter
registration programs reached the most participants (42.2,
26, and 25 percent respectively) while the other "missions"
reached 10 percent or less. Yet when participants were asked
if enough Venezuelans benefited from the missions, more than
half thought they did. Saade said his company's polls showed
a similar trend. The apparent success of the economy also
continues to be a significant factor as 48 percent of
respondents to the C21 poll said their economic situation was
good and 64.5 percent said it would likely improve a little
or a lot.

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Opposition Has Little Ability to Turn the Tide
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6. (SBU) When asked what the opposition could do to improve
its chances of winning, Saade and Gil said it was probably
too late. Both faulted the opposition for its lack of clear
leadership, its inability to stay on message and its failure
to choose a standard bearer. Gil and Saade rejected the
idea that the &fear factor8 will have a significant impact
on the outcome of the referendum. If anything, according to
Gil, Chavez runs the risk of making a mistake with his
accusations of fraud, but he too was down on the opposition's
prospects for turning things around.

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Comment
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7. (C) The polls are confusing, but the message is clear:
the outcome of the referendum will be determined on 15 August
only and not by the polls. The pollsters and politicians
poloff has talked to say the close statistical race is one of
the reasons political tension and pre-referendum violence has
been low. Nevertheless, each side's strong belief in the
polls that predict their own victory will make it harder for
the loser to accept defeat.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02582 - CONFIDENTIAL