VENEZUELA: CARTER CENTER BRIEFS AMBASSADORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002581

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2014
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: CARTER CENTER BRIEFS AMBASSADORS


Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.5 (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) Carter Center delegation representatives, including
former Argentine President Raul Alfonsin and former Costa
Rican President Rodrigo Carazo, met with resident ambassadors
August 10 to discuss the Carter Center's role as
international observers of the referendum. They outlined
observation mechanics and discussed the political dimension
of the mission. The ambassadors voiced concern about the
polarization and potential for violence as well as the
politicization of the CNE. Following the meeting, many of
them also expressed concern that Alfonsin seemed willing to
bless the vote, no matter the process. Diez later stressed
to poloff that former President Carter would not/not certify
results unless he felt confident in the judgment. End Summary.

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Carter Center Briefs on Observation Mechanics
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2. (C) Acting as heads of The Carter Center (TCC) observation
mission until former President Carter arrives in Caracas
August 13, former Presidents Alfonsin and Carazo briefed
resident ambassadors August 10 on the Carter Center's
preparation for the referendum. TCC representative in
Caracas Francisco Diez and head of TCC's technical
observation effort Edgardo Mimica also participated. They
explained they are operating under "minimum conditions" but
that they expect to have the capacity to observe the
installation of the voting machines, visit various voting
centers throughout the day, observe the closing of the polls,
and the counting and transmission of the results.


3. (C) The Carter Center observer mission is comprised of
observers from 14 different countries arriving August 11-13.
Diez and Mimica told the ambassadors they were not used to
restrictions on the number of observers in their missions and
hoped to have at least enough TCC observers for teams of two
to travel to each of the 24 states in Venezuela, plus an
extra team for Caracas. They said they were working with the
National Electoral Council (CNE) to expand the TCC mission to
match the size of the Organization of American States (OAS)
mission comprised of 68. Diez later told the Ambassador the
Carter Center received the number of observers they sought.


4. (C) The mission includes technical observers who will work
with OAS technicians as well as with SMARTMATIC and CANTV
representatives operating the fingerprint and voting
machines. Mimica said the TCC had a "superficial review" of
the machines and was impressed by the advanced technology.
He warned, however, that the machines were not programmed
with the latest voting registration. Therefore,
approximately two million new registered voters would have to
vote by paper ballot. Asked if they will be able to carry
out a quick count, the TCC representatives said yes, but it
would just be for the mission to verify the results tabulated
by the CNE.

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TCC Discusses Political Dimension of the Mission
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5. (C) Many of the ambassadors expressed their concern about
polarization and the fact that neither the opposition nor the
government is prepared to lose the referendum. Alfonsin said
such polarization happens in every country in every election
throughout Latin America. The Mexican and Chilean ambassador
emphasized that there is a possibility of violence on the
part of the state, referring to VP Jose Vincente Rangel's
threat of violence if the opposition releases its preliminary
numbers before the CNE. Alfonsin responded that former
Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde was here in Caracas and

met with all the political parties to ensure a fair and
peaceful process. Diez acknowledged the possibility of
violence but noted that the campaign period had not been
nearly as volatile as expected.


6. (C) The Chilean ambassador raised the issue of CNE
politicization, noting that its bias toward the GOV would
make the observation mission very difficult. The Costa Rican
ambassador added that there were some who thought the Carter
Center would not be willing to confront the CNE if it had to.
Alfonsin and Carazo acknowledged the concern and said they
are here to facilitate and give the Venezuelan people
confidence in the process. Mimica acknowledged the difficult
job and expressed regret that the experienced hands from the
European Union were not there with them.


7. (C) Diez later told poloff that there would be pressure on
the international observers to certify the results, whether
or not they have had sufficient information, but that former
President Carter would not/not certify results unless he felt
confident in the judgment. Diez also told poloff he did not
think the GOV would attempt any "tricks" with so many
international observers and journalists as well as the
Venezuelan press and the recently CNE- accredited national
observers from "Ojo Electoral" watching the process. He said
it would also be difficult for the GOV to play games with six
former heads of state, including Presidents Carter, Alfonsin,
Carazo, Duhalde, Cesar Gaviria, and Belisario Betancur, in
Venezuela. He said they would meet together with President
Chavez August 14.

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Ambassador Reiterates U.S. Policy
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8. (C) Referring to the August 6 Financial Times article,
Alfonsin asked the Ambassador if U.S. policy toward Venezuela
or the referendum had changed. The Ambassador responded that
our policy has been consistent, supporting a fair and
transparent referendum process. He explained to Alfonsin and
the ambassadors that the U.S. has emphasized the importance
of international observation and supported the efforts of the
Carter Center and the OAS for that reason.

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Comment
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9. (C) The Carter Center briefing left us and other
ambassadors with the impression that Alfonsin and Carazo are
willing to accept anything from the CNE and GOV. Left unsaid
but understood was also their presumption that Chavez would
win the referendum. With Alfonsin and Carazo seemingly
unwilling to confront the CNE and outgoing OAS SYG Gaviria
seemingly taking a back-seat to OAS mission head Pecly
Moreira, it could be up to former President Carter - and
Carter alone - to call the election.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02581 - CONFIDENTIAL