VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 11

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002577

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM ELAB VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 11


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
Reason 1.5(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) approved the
Venezuelan NGO "Electoral Eye" as the only national
observation group for the August 15 referendum. Beginning
from six different points throughout Caracas and culminating
on the highway, opposition supporters will begin a march to
conclude the "Si" campaign August 12 in the afternoon.
Coordinadora Democratica technicians who participated in the
audit of the electronic voting machines August 8 announced
their satisfaction with the security of the voting machines
and the data transmission lines provided by CANTV August 11.
Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza complained that the
CNE planned to use numbered manual voting ballots, and thus
would violate secrecy, to Organization of American States
(OAS) representative Valter Pecly Moreira. Pablo Castro,
Executive Secretary of the Confederation of Workers of
Venezuela (CTV) and CTV representative in the Coordinadora
Democratica, told Poloff August 10 that anti-Chavez unions
plan to form "brigades" of workers nationwide to counter
harassment of election centers by Chavez supporters on
referendum day. End Summary.

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National Observers
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2. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) approved the
Venezuelan NGO Ojo Electoral (Electoral Eye) as the only
national observation group for the August 15 referendum.
According to Eleazar Diaz Range, one of the directors of the
Electoral Eye and editor of the daily newspaper Ultimas
Noticias, the organization was formed at the suggestion of
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and is considered to
be an unbiased electoral organization. The group has
accepted technical assistance but not funding from NDI to
maintain its credibility. The Electoral Eye board is
considered by both the GOV and opposition to be bipartisan
because of its pro-Chavez and anti-Chavez membership.
Collaborating with other NGO's like Faith and Joy, the
Electoral Eye will deploy around 500 national observers
throughout Venezuela. In addition to verifying the validity
of the referendum process, the Electoral Eye is also the only
organization sanctioned by the CNE to perform a quick count
on August 15.

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Opposition Campaign Finale
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3. (U) Beginning from six different points throughout Caracas
and culminating on the capital's central highway, opposition
supporters will march to conclude the campaign to recall
President Hugo Chavez August 12 in the afternoon. The
opposition organizers promised surprises, political speeches,
concerts, and fireworks. Carlos Valero of the Coordinadora
said several municipal police forces would provide security
for the marchers. He claimed the opposition expects a
peaceful march with around one million supporters attending.
Valero said, "We will not march on Miraflores because we will
be there on August 16."


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Opposition Gives Voting Machines the "All Clear"
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4. (U) Coordinadora Democratica technicians who participated
in the audit of the electronic voting machines August 8
announced their satisfaction with the security of the
Smartmatic machines and the data transmission lines provided
by CANTV August 11. CNE representatives announced their
satisfaction with the machines August 9.


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Opposition Denunciations
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5. (U) Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza complained that
the CNE planned to use numbered manual voting ballots, and
thus would violate secrecy, to Organization of American
States (OAS) representative Valter Pecly Moreira. Mendoza
said the manual ballots violate the secrecy of the vote
because there are numbers imprinted on the ballots that can
be used to track a voter's choice. Upon departing the
meeting with Mendoza, Pecly said the OAS would communicate
the opposition's concerns to the CNE. CNE President
Francisco Carrasquero denied there were any identifying marks
on the manual ballots charging opposition members of becoming
accustomed to making false statements.


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Insiders' Views
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6. (C) At an August 11 breakfast, Carmelo Lauria, former
chief of staff for Carlos Andres Perez, President of
Congress, and banker, told Emboffs August 11 he was concerned
about the possibility of the opposition being robbed of a
referendum victory by fraud, and that together with SUMATE,
he had been gaming out potential scenarios. Lauria suggested
that Chavez is convinced he has the majority on his side, and
that his "manipulators" (notably Vice President Jose Vicente
Rangel) have commissioned multiple polls distorted to show
him to be ahead, and create the atmosphere for Chavez to
consider an adverse result to be fraudulent. Jesus Alberto
Lauria, Carmelo's brother and President of one of Venezuela's
largest insurance companies, was more upbeat, suggesting that
the opposition's victory would be large enough that Chavez
would not be able to challenge it without resorting to fraud
on a scale too great to be convincing.


7. (C) Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) President Felipe
Mujica told Poloff August 11 he was confident of a 60-40 win
for the opposition, dismissing polls to the contrary as
efforts at campaign spin. Mujica discounted the possibility
of violence during the voting, saying that the massive
numbers of people in line will dissuade partisans from
harassing voters. He suggested the Coordinadora Democratica
(CD) would try to establish contact with the GOV to ensure a
peaceful election day, and that that mechanism could be used
to fix a date for the presidential elections if the
opposition wins on August 15. Assuming a decisive win for
the opposition, Mujica doubted President Chavez would ignore
the results and try to stay in office.

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Union Strikes Back
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8. (C) Pablo Castro, Executive Secretary of the Confederation
of Workers of Venezuela (CTV) and CTV representative in the
Coordinadora Democratica, told Poloff August 10 that
anti-Chavez unions plan to form "brigades" of workers
nationwide to counter harassment of election centers by
Chavez supporters on referendum day. Castro said the groups
would be armed mostly with sticks and stones -- even frozen
oranges. The groups, he said, will respond to reports of
harassment with a superior number of opposition brigades.
Asked whether the opposition would be armed, Castro said they
would not have "weapons of war."


9. (C) Castro also confirmed that CTV President Carlos Ortega
is in Venezuela as reported by the press. Castro said
Ortega's arrival was a surprise to CTV leadership, including
to Secretary General Manuel Cova. Castro said the CTV had
agreed to support Ortega's return through a carefully managed
media event in which Ortega would present himself to the
Attorney General's office to face charges of conspiracy and
treason related to the December 2002 national strike. Castro

said Ortega himself had backed away from the deal and since
then talks between the CTV and Ortega have been minimal.
(Comment: Coordinadora Democratica leaders and we agree that
Ortega's return hurts the opposition. His presence in
Venezuela is a gift to President Chavez).
Shapiro


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