Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2563
2004-08-10 21:07:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 10

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002563 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 10

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.5 (b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002563

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 10

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.5 (b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) President Francisco
Carrasquero August 9 warned the opposition and the media not
to violate rules prohibiting the announcement of referendum
results before the votes are officially counted August 15.
Chavez supporters attacked opposition campaign workers in
downtown Caracas on August 9, tearing down the opposition
awning and burning campaign material. The CNE moved up its
test of the fingerprint machines to August 10 and 11 to test
the efficiency of changes made to the network system. OAS
chief observer Ries and told Poloff August 10 the observer
mission is proceeding normally. Primero Justicia Secretary
General Jose Luis Mejias expressed cautious optimism while
Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) Deputy Calixto Ortega is
"100% certain" that Chavez will win the referendum. CANTV
President Gustavo Roosen testified before a special
commission of the National Assembly August 9 for six hours.
End Summary.

--------------
Warning from the CNE
--------------


2. (U) Reacting to Governor Enrique Mendoza's announcement
that the Coordinadora Democratica would give out results the
afternoon of August 15, National Electoral Council (CNE)
President Francisco Carrasquero warned the opposition and the
media not to violate rules that prohibit the announcement of
referendum results before the votes are officially counted.
Carrasquero told reporters August 9 that the CNE, "will not
hesitate to activate the legal mechanisms and punish those
responsible." According to the CNE regulations any
television or radio channel transmitting referendum results
in violation of the law is subject to having its signal cut
or closed. Carrasquero reminded reporters that the CNE is
the institution responsible for counting the votes and
announcing the results of the referendum. Carrasquero
asserted that the Coordinadora "announcement was made to

create unease and restlessness so that next Sunday there will
be disorder and the authority of the CNE will be in
question."

--------------
Violence in Caracas Repeated
--------------


3. (U) Supporters of President Hugo Chavez attacked
opposition campaign workers when they set up information
booths at a public square in downtown Caracas August 9. The
National Guard and Military Police intervened, but the Chavez
supporters nonetheless succeeded in destroying the opposition
awning and burned opposition campaign materials. The Chavez
supporters also later attacked an adjacent municipal
government building, seizing the flag and throwing objects at
the building. Opposition deputy Julio Borges (Primero
Justicia) said the violence was an isolate incident, and that
the referendum campaign was proceeding in large part
peacefully.

--------------
Fingerprint Machines Being Tested
--------------


4. (U) The CNE moved up its test of the fingerprint machines
to August 10 and 11 to test the efficiency of changes made to
the network system. Carlos Silva, a CNE technician, told
reporters the fingerprint machines exceeded expectations and
proved much faster and easier to used than predicted during
the August 10 simulation. Organization of American States
(OAS) chief observer Edgardo Ries told Poloff August 10 the
OAS computer specialist Celio Santos was satisfied with the
capacity of the fingerprint system. While Santos said the

system was technically capable of carrying out the task, he
admitted it could be used to slow down the process depending
on how it is used.

--------------
OAS Keeping Low Profile
--------------


5. (C) OAS chief observer Ries and told Poloff August 10 the
observer mission is proceeding normally. Ries said the OAS
had avoided most of the CNE's strict rules for international
observers through quiet negotiation and accommodation of the
CNE's bureaucratic requirements. Ries said the OAS would
have 57 observers in the field on referendum day, including
five observers sent separately by the Government of Spain.
He said the OAS observers will have freedom of movement
during the referendum and will not participate in the CNE's
official observer program. Ries said the rules prohibit
observers from performing a quick count, but the OAS would
perform an informal check of results for internal use.
Gustavo Nogueira, a Brazilian diplomat working for OAS
mission chief Ambassador Valter Pecly, said the mission
expected to have access to the totalization process at the
CNE after polls close. Nogueira said Pecly's comments to the
press, prohibited by the rules, thus far had not been
challenged by the CNE because Pecly's comments were positive.


-------------- --------------
Canadian Ambassador Comments on Observation Missions
-------------- --------------


6. (C) At the Ambassador's residence on August 9, Canadian
Ambassador Allan Culham described the current international
observers' participation in the referendum as an "act of
faith." He said they could help ensure a fair process even
though they are under restrictions that fall below the norm
of what observers are permitted to do. Culham said he
understands why the EU decided not to observe, but he
believes the decision by the OAS to participate is the right
one. He also expressed regret that the international
community never dealt with OAS mission coordinator Fernando
Jaramillo's report regarding the fraud/irregularities in the
administration of the signature collection and repair
processes. Culham was the only ambassador resident in
Caracas to participate as an international observer of the
signature collection and repair processes with the OAS
mission.

--------------
Cautious Optimism from the Opposition
--------------


7. (U) Primero Justicia Secretary General Jose Luis Mejias
told Poloff August 9 the opposition would win the referendum,
but by a small enough margin that the GOV might employ fraud
to steal the election. Mejias said Chavez's rise in the
polls had peaked, according to the Coordinadora's daily
tracking poll. The poll has shown the winner flip-flopping
in a 46-44 race among registered voters, with 10 percent
still undecided. Mejias said there are four evenly split
categories represented in the undecided: 1) those who refuse
to answer, probably due to fear (Mejias said these are
probably "Yes" votes); 2) those who really do not intend to
vote; 3) those who will vote with the perceived winner; and
4) those who really are undecided and looking at the
positions of both sides. Mejias said the Coordinadora had
failed with this last group of voters, making the race very
tight. He estimated that the race would be decided by
300,000 - 400,000 votes, which makes the undecided voters
critical. Of course, he admitted, the GOV could still use
fraud to close the margin. He said mobilization will be the
key to winning, and if at least eight million voters turn
out, he predicted the opposition would win.

--------------
MVR Deputy Certain of a Chavez Win
--------------



8. (C) Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) Deputy Calixto
Ortega is "100% certain" that Chavez will win the referendum
due to the recent polling data, the success of their events,
the desperation of the opposition, and current economic
growth in Venezuela. Ortega told Poloffs August 9 that
winning the street is very important in Venezuelan politics,
and the massive pro-government march August 8 proved that the
"NO" campaign has won on that score. Of the 14 million
registered voters, Ortega believes 20-30% will abstain,
leaving approximately 10 million voters in the referendum.
He believes 3.7 million will vote "Si" to recall Chavez and
between 5-6 million will vote "No" to maintain Chavez in
office. Although most opposition supporters think they will
win, Ortega said, there are some opposition politicians who
know Chavez will win but can't admit it for political
reasons.

--------------
National Assembly Grills CANTV President
--------------


9. (C) CANTV President Gustavo Roosen went before a special
commission of the National Assembly August 9 to discuss his
company's handling of the automated voting for the
referendum. At a dinner at the Ambassador's residence later
that night, Roosen said he testified for six hours on trumped
up accusations of the bias of CANTV in favor of the "Si"
campaign. According to Roosen, the Chavistas assert a USG -
CIA link to the company by virtue of Verizon's 28% share in
the company. Chavez supporters believe that because so many
CANTV employees signed to petition for the recall referendum,
CANTV will attempt to manipulate the vote. Other Chavistas,
he said, believe the results could be manipulated by remote
control satellite messages "as was done by INTESA in its
strike sabotage of PDVSA." Roosen said he was asked ignorant
questions and overwhelmed the deputies with information.
Planted questions by opposition legislators, however, were
knowledgeable ones. Roosen believed the point of the hearing
was to create a "political floor" to allow Chavez to
"intervene" in CANTV ahead of the vote, if he wanted to. The
congressional committee subsequently told Roosen that they
had backed down from taking any kind of action, and the
hearing closed without any specific finding.

Shapiro


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2004CARACA02563 - CONFIDENTIAL