VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002547

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 9


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.5(d)

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Summary
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1. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge
Rodriguez and Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the Organization
of American States (OAS) observation mission in Venezuela,
told reporters the audit of 150 electronic voting machines on
August 8 was a success. Also on August 8, Chavez supporters
and opponents held large and peaceful campaign rallies in
Caracas. Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza said the
opposition Coordinadora Democratica would begin publicizing
referendum result trends at 3 pm on August 15 and would
continue with hourly updates. CNE director Rodriguez filed a
criminal complaint charging that the opposition committed
fraud in the November signature drive. The opposition
primary to select an opposition presidential candidate now
appears to be slated for September 5, according to Sumate.
End Summary.

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Audit Declared Successful
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2. (U) Jorge Rodriguez of the National Electoral Council
(CNE) announced that the technical audit performed August 8
on 150 electronic voting machines was a success and had a
zero percent error rate. Rodriguez declared the data
transmission through the phone lines was also successful and
had no inconsistencies. Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the
Organization of American States (OAS) observation mission in
Venezuela, told reporters that he was satisfied with the
results of the audit. The technical teams from the
opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo
Chavez's Comando Maisanta both withheld judgment, saying only
that the process was not yet complete.

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Rally Sunday
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3. (U) Chavez supporters and opponents held large and
peaceful campaign rallies on August 8 in Caracas. Speaking
at the "No" rally, President Chavez urged everyone to vote,
and vote early, on August 15 regardless inconveniences like
bad weather and lack of public transportation. Chavez denied
there was any fear factor leading up to the referendum vote,
saying that for the first time no one was afraid to say what
he thought. Chavez said that the opposition had created the
appearance of fear with the help of the media.
Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel declared the pro-GOV
event a success, challenging the opposition to produce even
one third as many supporters for a public gathering. The
opposition held a concert/rally also attended by thousands at
three points in the eastern part of Caracas. Speaking at the
opposition's event, governor of Miranda state Enrique
Mendoza, assured voters that a "Si" win was inevitable and
urged voters to vote early to avoid any sabotage attempts by
Chavistas. The Chavista University student federation sent
100 people to demonstrate peacefully outside the US. Embassy
August 8. The leader accused the US of sending troops to
Venezuela. The DCM rejected this claim and stressed the US
supported the referendum process.

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Announcing Results
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4. (U) During the opposition rally on August 8, Miranda State
Governor Enrique Mendoza announced the Coordinadora
Democratica would begin publicizing referendum result trends
at 3 pm on August 15 and would continue with hourly updates.
He assured those at the event the decision did not violate
the CNE agreement that only prohibits announcing numbers to
the media. Mendoza said that the opposition would find a way

of legally informing the people early so Chavez and his
supporters could not steal the vote. Rodriguez leveled
personal attacks against Coordinadora Democratica leader
Enrique Mendoza and Accion Democratica (AD) leader Henry
Ramos for comments the two made questioning the objectivity
of Rodriguez and the CNE. Vice-president Rangel told the
assembled diplomatic corps on August 9 that the GOV would
disrupt any television channel that would broadcast Mendoza's
3 pm update. The law, Rangel said, is clear. The election
results may not be commented upon before the polls close.

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Accusations
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5. (U) CNE Director Rodriguez presented a criminal complaint
to the Attorney General's office alleging the opposition
perpetrated fraud during the November 2003 signature drives
to petition for the recall of President Chavez. Rodriguez
claimed that the fingerprints of more than 10,000 people
appear multiple times in the petition forms. Rodriguez
claimed that the immigration office (ONIDEX) had matched some
of the fingerprints with their records. A Chavez supporter
appearing with Rodriguez at the Attorney General's office
claimed the alleged fraud amounted to 250,000 - 300,000 bogus
signatures.


6. (U) Rodriguez further suggested that a car fire in his
sister's parking garage August 6 was purposefully set to
intimidate him and his family. Coincidentally, authorities
discovered a Smartmatic voting machine in the vehicle next to
the one that burned. Smartmatic officials told the press the
machine was in the rightful possession of Smartmatic's
training coordinator for Caracas and that the machine carried
only test software.

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Missed Opportunities
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7. (C) A political consultant advising the Coordinadora
Democratica told the Ambassador the opposition missed several
opportunities in its campaign. The consultant said the
Coordinadora convinced itself that is was sufficient to have
Chavez run against Chavez despite the polling data to the
contrary. The opposition never campaigned to the undecided
voters, for example, only to those already committed.
Meanwhile, the economy is improving, Chavez's "missions" are
very popular, and Chavez is running a good campaign. The
opposition, according to the consultant, could win, but the
vote would be close. So close, in fact, that it is within
the margin that Chavez and the CNE could steal.

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Sumate Moderately Optimistic
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8. (C) Sumate representative Maria Corina Machado told
PolCouns August 8 she is moderately optimistic that the
opposition will succeed in recalling President Chavez August
15, but is concerned that opposition political leaders may
bungle the victory a la the Carmona debacle. Machado said
the problems with persons being relocated from one voting
center to another without their knowledge was of minor
proportions. Of greater concern, she said, was the
intimidation factor, especially related to the unresolved
issue of the use of fingerprinting machines. Sumate found
that among voters in the lower economic strata there is fear
"based on the myth of the machines' capabilities" that the
government will indeed learn how people voted, according to
Machado.


9. (C) Machado said the opposition may have the rules for a
primary to choose its presidential candidate before August

15. She said four former electoral council presidents had
agreed to form a pseudo electoral council that would oversee
the process. The opposition is now looking at September 5 as
the date for the primary. Machado recognized that the date


would theoretically leave a candidate almost no time to
campaign if the CNE stuck to the 30-day post referendum vote
timeframe.
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Possible Outcome Has Violence Under Control
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10. (C) Movimiento Quinto Republica (MVR) Deputy Roberto
Quintero from Zulia state told PolOff on August 9 that
President Chavez would accept the results of the Presidential
recall referendum. He said many people had advised Chavez to
claim fraud and reject the referendum after the signature
affirmation process, but that Chavez had rejected this
advice. Quintero said that there were elements in the MVR
that were not democratic, ranging from communist to fascist
in his view, but that Chavez himself was committed to a
democratic project.


11. (C) Quintero said the organizational weakness of the MVR
in Zulia had allowed radical elements to take a leading role.
The violence in Maracaibo on August 5, he said, was an
attack by Chavista radicals against the local Maisanta
offices. Quintero insisted that violent groups were a small
minority in Chavismo, and that they would not be able to act
during the referendum, due to the presence of the army in the
streets.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02547 - CONFIDENTIAL