LEGISLATORS REHASH RECALL AT BOSTON GROUP MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002541

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: LEGISLATORS REHASH RECALL AT BOSTON GROUP MEETING


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Both pro-GOV and pro-opposition National Assembly
Deputies meeting with Codel Ballenger August 3 predicted
victory in the August 15 referendum to unseat President Hugo
Chavez. According to various deputies, participation of
uncommitted voters, particularly in poor and rural areas,
will make or break the recall. Legislators from both camps
expressed concern about violence following the referendum,
but many discounted widespread, systematic violence. Pro-GOV
Deputy Hector Vargas told Emboff the GOV had a renewed
interest in the Boston Group based on hopes for improved
US-Venezuelan relations following the recall and US
presidential elections. Vargas claimed a group of
legislators complained about the incarceration of opposition
Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonsky, but were rebuffed by
GOV leaders. End Summary.

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Ballenger Honored for Boston Group Efforts
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2. (C) Members of the Boston Group and the Ambassador honored
Rep. Cass Ballenger for his work creating and sustaining the
group of US and Venezuelan legislators the Residence August

3. The Ambassador gave Rep. Ballenger the flag that flew at
the Embassy that day and praised his efforts to build bridges
between the US and Venezuelan and between the political
parties of both countries. Representatives Bill Delahunt and
Gregory Meeks, and National Assembly Deputy Calixto Ortega
also spoke.

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Recall Speculation Runs Rampant
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3. (C) Speaking with Emboff, Pro-GOV Deputy Hector Vargas
predicted a relatively easy win for President Hugo Chavez
against the August 15 recall referendum. He acknowledged,
however, Chavez supporters "could" lose his home state of
Zulia. He told Emboff that even with an "unprecedented" low
25 percent abstention rate, the opposition would not be able
to mobilize enough voters to remove Chavez. Although he
conceded the opposition has the numbers "on paper" to defeat
Chavez, he predicted they would fail to motivate them due to
lack of a clear, symbolic leader and the indecisiveness
inherent in an organization that relies on consensus. He
claimed this contrasted favorably for the GOV with Chavez's
strong, single-minded leadership in the minds of uncommitted
Venezuelans.


4. (C) Opposition Deputy Leopoldo Martinez told Emboff he was
concerned voters in poor neighborhoods might sit the recall
out because the opposition has not done enough to offer them
a clear alternative to Chavez. He said the GOV's well-funded
campaign blitzkrieg is engulfing voters in poor areas with
pro-GOV banners, songs, and events, making a pro-Chavez
outcome seem inevitable and the risks of voting against the
GOV appear pointless. He added that a less visible GOV
campaign is underway using neighbors to intimidate voters,
insinuating that they should vote to keep Chavez "if they
know what's good for them." He complained that the
opposition was "not doing enough to reassure these people"
that they will be protected or that they have a reason to
participate.

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Wide-Spread Violence Unlikely, Says Opposition Deputy
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5. (C) Opposition Deputy Angel Vera agreed with GOV-allied
Saul Ortega and several other deputies who expressed concern
about, but ultimately discounted, the possibility of
wide-spread violence following the recall. Vera said
whatever the outcome of the recall, the military could be
trusted to keep the peace. Although top leadership was
firmly pro-Chavez, he asserted the rank and file represented
a broad cross-section of Venezuelan society. Because
Chavista elements are present, there will likely be isolated

examples of military heavy-handedness, but these will not be
representative of the larger situation, which will be
peaceful. He claimed the opposition largely underestimates
the military's sense of professionalism and its underlying
disposition to stay out of politics.

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How Venezuela-Cuba Relationship Is "Good" for US
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6. (C) Deputy Vargas later criticized the US "fascination"
with the GOV's relationship with Cuba, claiming it was no
more important to the GOV than its relationship with Colombia
or any of its neighbors. He also proposed that the US should
encourage the Venezuela-Cuba relationship, as Venezuelan is
"having more of an influence on Cuba" than Cuba is having on
Venezuela. He said the thousands of Cuban professionals sent
to Venezuela to participate in GOV social programs (largely
Cuban doctors participating the "Barrio Adentro" medical
program) are exposed to US values and viewpoints through
contact with Venezuelans, and that the expatriates acted as a
sort of Trojan Horse for US interests upon returning to the
island.


7. (C) Pro-GOV Deputy Luis Acuna blasted the Venezuelan
medical establishment for complaining that the GOV was
supporting the "Barrio Adentro" program at the expense of
medical clinics. Acuna asserted medicine shortages and
under-funding of clinics was a chronic problem that predates
the Chavez administration and complained that only 29 of
13,000 doctors participating the "Barrio Adentro" program
were Venezuelan. "Venezuelan doctors do not want to work if
they cannot have air conditioning and cable TV," Acuna said.

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GOV Can't Back Away From Capriles Case
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8. (C) Vargas also expressed dismay at the imprisonment of
Baruta Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonsky, a "friend" and
colleague when both men were deputies in the 90s. According
to Vargas, a handful of GOV legislators complained to the
prosecution about the incarceration, but were slapped down by
GOV leadership. He lamented that the case was out of control
and that it would be difficult for the GOV to back away from
it without losing face. Although he admitted the
incarceration may have made a martyr out Capriles and boosted
his support, he predicted that would not matter "when he is
convicted," since convicts cannot run for office.

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Renewed Interest in the Boston Group
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9. (C) Saul Ortega told Emboff that GOV-allied legislators
were taking a renewed interest in the Boston Group because of
potential new directions in political leadership in both
countries following the recall referendum in Venezuela and
the presidential elections in the US. He emphasized the deep
Venezuelan social and economic ties with the US that will
endure "regardless of who the (Venezuelan) president is."
Ortega claimed the GOV was hoping a new "respectful" and
"less interventionist" US foreign policy would emerge toward
Latin America, even if the current administration stayed on.

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Comment
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10. (C) This event was symbolic of the importance of the
Boston Group and vindication of the efforts of Boston Group
architect Cass Ballenger. Getting pro-GOV and opposition
legislators together in a social setting is always desirable,
especially less than two weeks before the polarizing recall
vote. Although legislators from both sides confidently
predicted an outcome in their favor, they also seemed to be
thinking beyond August 15 to efforts to constrain violence.
The underlying message: the aftermath of the recall may be
more divisive and potentially violent than the recall itself.
Shapiro


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