VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002540

SIPDIS


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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 6


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor
for Reason 1.4(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously
agreed to go to a manual vote if the electronic voting
machines fail August 15. The CNE also finalized plans to
audit the electronic voting machines on August 8.
Unidentified persons attacked a pro-Chavez campaign office in
Maracaibo August 5, and in Caracas Chavez supporters attacked
government opponents as they attempted to set up a campaign
point in a square in the capital. Venezuelans who petitioned
the CNE between July 24 and August 4 to correct the change of
their voting location done without their consent by the
electoral authorities will be allowed to vote manually August
15, according to CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. The
Coordinadora Democratica urged the CNE reconsider how to use
fingerprint machines at voting centers because, among other
things, the machines have an error rate of more than 2% and
thus would disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters
outright. The ex-president of the Venezuelan Workers
Confederation (CTV) Carlos Ortega said he returned from Costa
Rica where he enjoyed political asylum to Venezuela because
he is concerned about the August 15 referendum and wanted to
join opposition efforts to oust President Hugo Chavez.
Despite worries about Chavez performing small acts of fraud
that are undetected, opposition leaders still feel confident
that the "Si" will win on August 15. End Summary.

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Contingency Plan
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2. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously
agreed August 5 that if electronic voting machines failed
August 15 and could not be repaired or substituted, the CNE
would decide if voting center would go to a manual vote.
Under the rules, the CNE technicians will have half an hour
to fix failed machines. If the machines cannot be fixed, the
CNE has one hour to substitute the failed machine with one
that works. If after one hour and a half, the electronic
voting machines are still not working, the CNE directors must
decide if voting at the center will proceed manually. CNE
director Jorge Rodriguez reporters that on August 15, the CNE
directorate will be in permanent session to attend to
problems that arise immediately. If any problems arise with
the transmission of data or audit after the election, the
removable memory drives of the machine will be transported to
CNE headquarters with the escort of the armed force's Plan
Republica.

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Agreeing to the Audit
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3. (U) Rodriguez also announced August 5 that the CNE will
audit 200 electronic voting machines on August 8 to ensure
there is nothing inside the program that could modify the
results of the August 15 referendum. Technical experts from
the opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo
Chavez's Comando Maisanta will participate. If the CNE
discovers inconsistencies between the preset number of votes
for each machine and the audit results, it will announce a
manual vote for referendum.

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Violence
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4. (U) Violence broke out in Caracas and Maracaibo on August
5, according to press reports. In Caracas' Plaza Candelaria,
opposition supporters who were putting up a "Si" campaign
booth said they were attacked by Chavez supports who
reportedly were not from their neighborhood. Four people
were injured, but no one was killed. The opposition

supporters accused the National Guard of siding with the
attackers and launching tear gas at the opposition booth
while allowing Chavez supporters to fire upon the booth with
guns. A National Guard tank was installed and the military
took over control of the plaza.


5. (U) In Maracaibo, unidentified persons attacked a
pro-Chavez campaign office while Minister of Labor Maria
Cristina Iglesias worked inside with other high-ranking
Chavez supporters on the referendum campaign. The government
claims the attackers were opposition supporters, but local
journalists report that the incident was a conflict between
rival groups of Chavez supporters. Iglesias dismissed the
possibility that Chavez supporters were involved. Four
people where injured, one with a bullet wound in the chest,
but no one was killed. Amateur video footage broadcast on
all-news channel Globovision showed a man coming out of the
campaign offices armed with a sub-machine and minutes later
another man interceding between two groups of people standing
near the damaged cars parked outside the building. The
unknown attackers were heavily armed with machine guns.

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Voters Go Manual
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6. (U) Venezuelans who petitioned the CNE between July 24 and
August 4 to correct the change of their voting location done
without their consent by the electoral authorities will be
allowed to vote manually August 15, according to Jorge
Rodriguez of the CNE. These voters will be allowed to vote
at their original voting location, with their information
will be included in supplementary notebooks provided to each
voting centers on August 15. Military personnel assigned to
voting centers as part of Plan Republica will also vote by
paper ballot, according to press reports. The CNE estimates
that about 30 people per voting table will vote manually
because of the limits on the capacity of the voting machines.
To accommodate manual voting, the CNE ordered 30% of the
electoral registry, approximately 4.5 million, paper ballots
printed for August 15.

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Fingerprint Machines
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7. (U) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) urged international
observers to address with the CNE the issue of possible
irregularities with the use of fingerprint machines. CD
representative Carlos Quiroz told reporters that taking at
face value the statements by the purveyors of machines that
they count a two percent error rate, using the machines would
mean hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans would be
disenfranchised randomly. The CD used a legal study prepared
by university rectors to back its position.

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Union Leader Returns
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8. (C) Venezuelan Workers Confederation (CTV) President
Carlos Ortega told reporters via telephone that he returned
to Venezuela because he is concerned about the August 15
referendum and wanted to join opposition efforts to oust
President Hugo Chavez. Ortega, who did not disclose his
location, faces charges of treason for his role in the
two-month national strike from December 2002 to January 2003.
He was given political asylum in Costa Rica in 2003, but
Costa Rican officials asked him to leave in March 2004 after
he reportedly said he would return to Venezuela to work
clandestinely to oust Chavez. Costa Rican officials,
according to press reports, confirmed Ortega departed the
country July 30 but could not confirm his destination.
Manuel Cova, the current Secretary General of CTV, told
reporters that he had spoken with Ortega and could confirm
that he was in Venezuela. (Comment: We are convinced the
Coordinadora Democratica did not approve of Ortega's move;

his return only serves to remind voters of the failed
2002-2003 strike. End Comment.)

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It's the Little Things
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9. (C) Fernando Martinez Mottola, member of Coordinadora
Democratica, told Poloffs August 2 he is concerned that
Chavez is committing small acts of fraud that are hard to
criticize, but when aggregated amount to major
irregularities. His examples included the continuing
incidents of threats against government employees, last
minute changes in voting stations, the rumor that the
fingerprint machines will allow the government to track
votes, efforts to stymie international observer missions and
the CNE's refusal to conduct an immediate audit. Mottola
said he is not very worried bout the voting machines
themselves because he felt it would be hard to interfere with
the data trnsmission, a sentiment Juan Fernandez of the
oppsitions Petroleum People echoed in a conversation ith
PolOff August 4.

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Opposition Leaders Confident
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10. (C) In meetings with the Ambassador August 4, former
Carabobo State Governor Henrique Salas Roemer and Juan
Fernandez were optimistic about the referendum. Salas and
Fernandez said Chavez's support peaked with the barrage of
propaganda and will fall off some before the recall vote.
Meanwhile, because of limited funds, the "Si" campaign has
held back and has just begun to ramp up their efforts, which
will result in a noticeable push as August 15 approaches.
Second, the two opposition leaders questioned the validity of
Venezuelan polls, asserting that some people are afraid to
speak honestly for fear that the government or their
neighbors might find out. They feel that there are people on
both sides who fall into this category, but that the majority
are those who tell pollsters "No" but plan to vote "Yes."
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02540 - CONFIDENTIAL