Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2516
2004-08-05 20:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE

Tags:  PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002516 

SIPDIS


BOGOTA AND LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA
NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d
)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002516

SIPDIS


BOGOTA AND LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA
NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d
)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger, Gregory Meeks, Bill
Delahunt and Butch Otter, accompanied by the Ambassador, met
with Organization of American States (OAS) representative
Patricio Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3.
Carbacho said he believed the OAS observer mission could do
its job under current conditions. He was concerned Chavez
might find a way to delay the referendum until after August
19, possibly using electronic voting machine failures as a
pretext since no contingency plan currently exists. End
Summary.

--------------
OAS Advantage Point
--------------


2. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger (R-NC),Gregory Meeks
(D-NY),Bill Delahunt (D-MA) and Butch Otter (R-ID) met
Organization of American States (OAS) representative Patricio
Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3. Carbacho
contrasted the process by which the OAS received its
invitation to observe with the European Union (EU) attempts
to do the same. He asserted that the lack of EU observers is
beneficial to the democratic process in Venezuela because it
heightens the reliance of the GOV on the OAS and Carter
Center (CC) as the only technically experienced observers of
the election.


3. (C) Carbacho lauded OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria's
appointment of Brazilian Ambassador to the OAS, Valter Pecly
Moreira, to lead the OAS observer mission. According to
Carbacho, Chavez's well-publicized respect for Brazil will
make it difficult for him to dismiss Ambassador Pecly, and
therefore, any statements made on behalf of the OAS
observation mission. Carbacho said that the OAS believes it
has several advantages and will be able to adequately perform
its duties as an international observer.

--------------
Quick Count
--------------


4. (C) Carbacho told the Congressmen that the OAS quick count
could accurately predict, with a 3% margin of error, the
outcome of the referendum and reveal inconsistencies if they

existed. He indicated that in 61 previous electoral
observations, including the signature collection in November
2003 and the appeals in May, the OAS was accurate. For the
August 15 referendum, the CNE surveys and chooses the tables
for the quick counts, he said, and the OAS will then select
their quick count tables from among the CNE's choices.
Jessica Lewis, democratic staffer for the Western Hemisphere
sub-committee of the House International Relations Committee,
reiterated Sumate's concerns about CNE involvement in the
quick count to Carbacho. Carbacho said he was not concerned,
and the process would be statistically reliable. He said
that the major difference between the August 15 referendum
and previous processes would be that the OAS would make no
announcements as the process develops.


5. (C) The Ambassador and Congressmen asked if software
problems and the 200 electronic voting machines that no one
appears to know the location of could cause problems during
the referendum. Carbacho said that the OAS quick count would
be valid and indicate inconsistencies if any tricks were
used. Carbacho remarked there would be 45 OAS observers
present. The Ambassador noted that the Carter Center would
have a similar number. When Representative Delahunt asked if
the OAS and Carter Center would be working together, Carbacho
said that while there might be coordination, each
organization was separate. The Ambassador pointed out that
when former President Jimmy Carter came to Venezuela, Carter

insisted upon his independence from the Embassy, as it should
be. Carbacho pointed out that the OAS observer mission was
also independent of the permanent OAS mission in Venezuela.

--------------
Predictions
--------------


6. (C) Carbacho predicted 5.9 million people would vote for
the "Si" on August 15 while only around 3 million people
would vote for the "No". The range should be wide enough to
make GOV accusations for fraud unbelievable. The Ambassador
pointed out that both sides were absolutely convinced they
would win the referendum. He thought that the voter turn out
would be unprecedented for Venezuela, perhaps higher than
Carbacho was predicting. Carbacho concurred with the
Ambassador, citing Venezuelans high turn out on August 1 to
sign the opposition's Governance Agreement without much
political organization. The Ambassador compared it to 20% of
the United States population turning out to sign the
Democratic or Republican platform.

--------------
To Be or Not To Be Concerned
--------------


7. (C) Responding to questions, Carbacho said he was
concerned that Chavez knew what the numbers were and would
find a method to make the CNE fail for the August 15
referendum. He said that the OAS still had not received any
indication there was a contingency plan for machine failure,
and that could be a possible glitch. He said a possible
solution to the concern about fingerprint machine failures is
to have people fingerprinted after they voted, but he
expressed doubt that the CNE would accept that solution.
When asked if a higher-than-expected turnout could produce
logistical problems, Carbacho was confident that there would
be more than enough time for anyone interested to vote. He
said that the voting centers would open at 7 am and be open
at least 10 hours. Since each center should have no more
than 600 voters per machine, he did not foresee a problem.

8.(C) Carbacho implied that the neutrality of the CNE was
questionable. He noted that Francisco Carrasquero, the
President of the CNE, was applying for one of the 10 new
positions at the expanding Supreme Court (TSJ). Carbacho
said that since the National Assembly was going to choose the
additional judges, and Chavez's Quinta Republica party (MVR)
had a majority, it was likely they would choose Carrasquero
for a plum 12-year appointment to the TSJ.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) Carbacho was confident the OAS's observation team
would be able to do its job adequately under the present
conditions. He expressed some concern about August 15 delays,
but did not appear overly worried. He agreed with the
Ambassador that there might be a higher-than-expected voter
turnout.


10. (U) Codel Ballenger did not have the opportunity to clear
this message before its departure.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02516 - CONFIDENTIAL