OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND GOVERNANCE ACCORD

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002432

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND GOVERNANCE ACCORD

REF: CARACAS 2248

Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.5 (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica is calling on Venezuelans
to sign its National Accord for Social Justice and Democratic
Peace August 1. Coordinadora leaders publicly signed the
document, which establishes a broad framework for an
opposition-led transition government, should President Chavez
be recalled, on July 25. The concise document outlines
principles of unity, reconstruction, reconciliation, and
peace and recommends broad political, economic, and social
reforms. The Accord formally recommends a primary election
to determine the unified opposition candidate in a follow-on
presidential election, who would promise not to seek
immediate re-election in 2006. End summary.

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A United Accord
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2. (U) Coordinadora Democratica leaders from 60 political
parties and civil society organizations signed the National
Accord for Social Justice and Democratic Peace, also called
the Governance Accord or Pact, on July 25. The opposition
leaders sat on the stage as actress Eva Gutierrez read the
four-page document, which outlines broad themes and goals for
an opposition-led transition government. Unity is the
overall theme, while reconstruction, reconciliation, and
peace are core principles of the Accord. The Coordinadora
leaders then called upon all supporters to sign the Accord on
August 1 at any of the 8,330 voting centers around the
country. Beyond signing the Accord, this opposition event
will allow people to verify where they are to vote August 15.
(Note: This verification is a major opposition concern since
it was learned that the National Electoral Council (CNE) had
changed the location where more than one million voters are
to go.)


3. (U) The Accord, designed to "establish the foundation to
the solutions of the significant problems of Venezuela,"
outlines broad goals in five major areas: social issues,
economic recovery, political and constitutional reforms, the
judicial system, and international relations. The Accord
proposes immediate social programs to relieve hunger and
unemployment, an improvement in health and education systems,
and an emergency plan to protect citizens' security. The
economic goals focus on the recovery of the petroleum sector,
but avoid direct mention of privatization or foreign
investment.


4. (U) The Accord's proposed political reforms focus on
constitutional reform, such as the reduction in presidential
power, the focus on decentralization, and the reform of the
military. In addition, the proposed political reforms call
for the re-establishment of a bicameral legislature and the
creation of a run-off presidential election. The judicial
goals include a declaration of emergency on the judicial
system, a referendum on the Supreme Court law, and a
reassessment of the appointment process for judges. The
Accord also recommends a foreign policy strategy that
advances the strategic interests of the country and respects
international conventions. The Accord and Plan Consenso
cover many common themes (reftel). However, the Accord makes
broad recommendations and sets out guiding principles for an
opposition-led transition government compared to the more
specific, action-oriented Plan Consenso Pais.

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Opposition Primary Implications
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5. (C) The Accord states that the opposition will hold a
primary election to choose a unified, opposition candidate
for a follow-on presidential election. It requires that the

chosen candidate commit to not seek immediate re-election in

2006. Alfredo Larrazabal, Sumate leader in charge of the
primaries, told poloff on July 28 that this re-election
commitment is a "moral obligation" and that it will have
little effect on who is a candidate for the opposition
primary. The Accord, however, does not specify whether the
primary will be open or closed, nor when it will take place.
(Note: An open primary would permit all registered voters to
participate while a closed primary would only allow persons
who signed to recall the President to participate.)
Larrazabal said the group organizing the primary has
maintained their recommendation of August 29 as the date of
the referendum.

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The Opposition Unites
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6. (U) At the Accord's unveiling, opposition leaders joined
and raised hands in a symbolic show of unity after the
official release of the Accord. Media reports portray a
unified opposition, determined to address the issues and
present a viable alternative to the Chavez administration.
Henrique Salas Roemer, Carabobo State governor and possible
primary candidate, said that this Accord unites the country
and creates a legitimate process to choose an opposition
unified candidate. Julio Borges, President of Primero
Justicia, said the Accord focuses the referendum campaign on
the problems of Venezuela and provides solutions.


7. (C) Aurelio Concheso, President of the libertarian think
tank Center for the Dissemination of Economic Information
(CEDICE),told poloff on June 29 that the Governance Accord
is a tangible sign of the opposition's unity. He asserted
that the Accord is a political strategy that unites the
opposition. More important than the Mendoza-Borges-Salas
embrace, Concheso believes that the unity demonstrated by
leaders from Bandera Roja (a left-wing, former guerrilla
party),Fedecamaras (Venezuela's umbrella business
organization),and the CTV (the Venezuelan Workers'
Confederation) is essential to opposition success. Concheso
prognosticated that the left-leaning parties would be given
socially-sensitive ministries (i.e. health and education),
the center-based parties would control national security and
international relations ministries (i.e. Defense, Foreign
Relations),and the right-aligned parties would lead fiscal
and monetary institutions (i.e. Finance Ministry).

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Comment
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8. (C) The Governance Accord is a tangible demonstration of
unity by a politically diverse opposition. The broad scope
of the Accord provides a framework and a set of principles to
guide an opposition-led transition government. The most
controversial point in the Accord will be the statement that
an opposition transition president must commit to not run for
re-election in 2006. This small clause, if honored, would
influence the electoral primary landscape, most likely
eliminating Henrique Salas Roemer (who wants to run also in
2006) and further elevating Enrique Mendoza's candidacy.
McFarland


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