COMANDO MAISANTA: A MID-CAMPAIGN UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002387

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: COMANDO MAISANTA: A MID-CAMPAIGN UPDATE

Classified By: ACTING DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) Since its formation, President Hugo Chavez's
anti-recall referendum campaign committee, Comando Maisanta,
has balanced its activities between concentrated lobbying and
widespread propaganda dissemination. Comando Maisanta has
pushed for redistributing voting centers and purifying the
electoral registry in their meetings with the National
Electoral Council (CNE). Finalizing the formation of citizen
electoral patrols has most recently been a central component
of the campaign, with President Chavez traveling around
Venezuela to induct the members personally. End Summary.

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REDISTRIBUTION AND PURIFICATION
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2. (U) President Chavez's Comando Maisanta, the campaign
committee established to win the recall referendum, has
continuously called for the redistribution of and an increase
in the number of voting centers around Venezuela. On June
22, Maripili Hernandez, national director of events and image
for Comando Maisanta, publicly asserted that there is a
profound disequilibrium in the distribution of voting centers
that negatively affects the poorer, more populous areas.
Despite a July 13 decision by the CNE to not add 1000
additional voting centers in poorer neighborhoods, the issue
continues to resurface. During their July 16 meeting with
members of the CNE, Minister of Information and Communication
Jesse Chacon and Samuel Moncada, a member of the Comando
Maisanta brain-trust, once again called for an increase in
the number of voting centers.


3. (U) In his July 16 meeting with the CNE, Moncada also
questioned the purity, transparency and trustworthiness of
the national electoral registry. He claimed that although
the CNE removed 160,000 deceased persons from the registry, a
significant, but unnamed, quantity of the dead still needed
to be removed. Moncada also contended that more than 5,000
Venezuelans living abroad had effectively renounced their
citizenship and should also be removed from the registry.

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ELECTORAL PATROLS
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4. (U) To reach into the communities, Comando Maisanta has
established electoral patrols. These groups of ten
individuals are a central component of the President's
anti-recall campaign. President Chavez has conducted rallies
in major metropolitan areas across Venezuela to induct
members personally. Patrol members are responsible for
mobilizing voters for the August 15 referendum and organizing
local-level events in support of Chavez. Comando Maisanta
hopes to establish 130,000 patrols with a total 1.3 million
members; the ideal number, they say, needed to manage 13
million voters. On July 14, Fifth Republican Movement (MVR)
deputy and national director of organization for Comando
Maisanta, William Lara claimed that only 100,000 patrols had
been established. He further admitted that all of the
existing patrols were not completely efficient and that
Comando Maisanta would be conducting an audit of the patrols
to evaluate their performance.

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PROPAGANDA AND SMEAR TACTICS
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5. (U) Comando Maisanta's campaign strategy is focused on
maintaining a steady flow of electoral propaganda. Members
of the patrols hand out leaflets that claim Venezuelan
sovereignty is under attack by the United States and also
tout the successes of Chavez's presidency, focusing
specifically on PDVSA, the social missions and improvements
to the health system. Additionally, Chavez supporters have

hung large "Vote No" signs every 15 feet in the median of the
central highway in Caracas. The blanket coverage of "Vote
No" signs took place the day after the National Guard
prevented pro-opposition activists from placing their
propaganda in the very same locations.


6. (U) The Comando Maisanta has also used unfounded
allegations to discredit and defame the opposition. During a
July 4 public address on Margarita Island, William Lara
accused the opposition of formulating a plot to sabotage the
voting machines that will be used for the August 15
referendum. In the July 11 episode of "Alo Presidente",
President Chavez asserted that the National Endowment for
Democracy funded the Coordinadora Democratica's "Plan
Consenso Pais" (National Consensus Plan). On July 13, Samuel
Moncada publicly stated that the font and color scheme used
by the opposition for its "Si" propaganda are identical to
the format used by the United Self-Defense Forces (AUC) in
Colombia, and therefore was evidence of links between the two
groups.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) As the date of the referendum approaches, the
campaign is picking up momentum and will continue to
intensify. Members of Comando Maisanta have latched on to a
number of key issues, which they believe will help determine
the outcome. The issue of "insufficient" numbers of voting
centers in poorer neighborhoods, in concert with
complications that may arise from the voting and fingerprint
machines, potentially provides Chavez and Comando Maisanta
with ammunition should they choose to contest the results of
the referendum if the results are in favor of the opposition.
For now, the issue has been sidelined as the National
Electoral Council contemplates the addition of voting
machines at established centers instead of opening new ones.
That said, however, it does not mean that the Comando
Maisanta has abandoned it. A for the electoral patrols,
where they operate, they appear to be effective. The test
for Comando Maisanta will be how many they eventually
constitute and the breadth of their coverage across the
nation.
McFarland


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