LACK OF FUNDING WORRIES VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002309

SIPDIS


NSC FOR C. BARTON
USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: LACK OF FUNDING WORRIES VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION


Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Coordinadora Democratica (CD) leaders worry they have
insufficient funding and time before the recall referendum
against President Hugo Chavez scheduled for August 15 to
counter Chavez's campaign. CD advisor Jorge Casado told
A/DCM July 18 that Chavez appears to be succeeding in
projecting the image of a winner, with polls showing him
gaining strength. The prime effect on the opposition is that
businessmen are reluctant to give money, Casado said, which
has limited the Coordinadora's campaign publicity and
hampered their ability to mobilize people and show public
support. Casado said the political parties and NGOs in the
Coordinadora are working at the grassroots, people-to-people,
but the fear is that the effort will pale in contrast to
Chavez's flood of money and publicity. MAS President told
Charge July 20 that, though there appears to be a void in
Caracas, opposition leaders such as himself have full
schedules, addressing groups usually ranging from 300 to
1,000 people in the interior. Mujica confirmed the
opposition's money woes, but suggested that Chavez's flood of
spending could backfire on the President. End Summary.


2. (C) Coordinadora Democratica advisor Jorge Casado told
A/DCM that the Coordinadora's leadership is worried about how
well President Hugo Chavez's campaign is doing. Casado said
he had just come from a meeting with Coordinadora chief
Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza in which they
discussed recent poll results. They show:
--a 12% increase among Chavez sympathizers in willingness to
participate in the August 15 vote (attributed to a response
to Chavez's call to participate in the electoral battle);
--a 4% increase in Chavez's core supporters, apparently in
direct correlation to a decrease in the undecided "Ni-Nis";
and
--a 5% lead by those who are going to participate in the
referendum "to give the government a chance (32%) over those
who are doing so to get rid of Chavez (27.4%).


3. (C) Casado noted it is not just the polls that give the
sense that Chavez is rising. He said the ubiquitous red
T-shirts worn by Chavez supporters catch the eye as the
campaign workers work neighborhoods, and the red-and-white
posters with the single word "NO" are pervasive in contrast
to the lack of "SI" posters. Casado asserted that the
Government was paying for strategic, highly visible places to
hang posters where the spot was not necessarily controlled by
a Chavez sympathizer. Casado said they had also learned that
Chavez supporters were paying up to one million Bolivares
($520) to bus operators to keep units idle rather than rent
them to the opposition. Meeting with Charge and A/DCM July
20, Movement to Socialism (MAS) President and Coordinadora
negotiator Felipe Mujica was not so convinced of the
advantage that the polls appeared to give Chavez. Mujica
said he believes that the poll results are skewed because
respondents believe the information they give will go to the
government, and cited as examples the polls in Chile and
Nicaragua giving the governments there the advantage prior to
key electoral contests.


4. (C) The prime effect of Chavez's apparent winning tactics
on the opposition, according to Casado, is that businessmen
are reluctant to donate money and those that do donate, do so
in lesser amounts. Casado speculated that the businessmen,
unconvinced that there will be a change, do not want to be
identified with the opposition should the referendum fail to
oust Chavez. He noted, too, that Chavez has attempted to
co-opt some business by bringing them into public appearances
with him.


5. (C) The lack of financial support has the Coordinadora
worried, Casado said. The trend they see is Chavez on the
upswing using all the resources of the state available to
him, with the Coordinadora flat or on a decline for lack of
resources. With four weeks to go before the vote, he said,
more funding is essential to heat up the Coordinadora's
campaign. Already, Casado said, some events are suffering

such as a rally that he is coordinating in Barinas State, the
heart of Chavez country, this weekend. They have had to
scale it back by half because of lack of money.


6. (C) A/DCM asked Casado what toll the lack of funding was
taking on the individual campaign work of the political
parties and NGOs that makeup the Coordinadora. Casado said
COPEI, Accion Democratica, MAS, Proyecto Venezuela were all
working diligently. He said Sumate had fallen behind by some
four days because of problems preparing their contact
information.


7. (C) Mujica confirmed that donors, for a variety of
reasons, have been reluctant to come forward with financial
support. Acknowledging that Chavez is outspending the
opposition and can continue to do so, Mujica suggested that
the flood of spending could eventually backfire on the
President. He also asserted that the government's
triumphalism could work against it--both because it can turn
people off and because it can lead to political mistakes that
can be to the opposition's advantage. Mujica noted that
people do sense a void in the opposition's efforts because of
inactivity in Caracas. Opposition leaders have their agendas
full, however, outside the capital, he said. In his own
case, he had addressed groups ranging in size from 300 to
1,000 people nearly every during the past week. He predicted
that both sides' campaigns "would get red hot" the after
August 8.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) The contrast between Chavez's campaign and the
opposition's is indeed striking. The President dominates the
airwaves, using the mandated link-up of all radio and
television stations in the country (cadenas) almost daily,
and advertisements highlighting his government's programs, at
times indistinguishable from advertisements sponsored by his
campaign, appear in practically every newspaper. Meanwhile,
a Coordinadora representatives appears on one of the
country's most highly rated television news-talk shows to
inform Chavez opponents about how they can enter a webpage to
find material they can individually print at their own
expense and distribute. An influx of funds to counter the
Chavez campaign trove seems unlikely. The test for the
opposition will be how well they can do on the proverbial
shoe string and how much strength the "people power" they
have enjoyed to date can be sustained.
McFarland


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2004CARACA02309 - CONFIDENTIAL