DIVISIONS BETWEEN PROYECTO VENEZUELA AND CD

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002239

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: DIVISIONS BETWEEN PROYECTO VENEZUELA AND CD


Classified By: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica in Carabobo is divided
over the actions of Proyecto Venezuela, according to local
party leaders who talked to PolOffs on July 8 and 9. Leaders
of several parties complained that Proyecto Venezuela was not
participating enthusiastically in the recall referendum
campaign. They also claimed that Proyecto Venezuela President
Henrique Salas Roemer is more interested in campaigning for
the presidency than participating in the recall effort.
Nonetheless, the local Coordinadora Democratica leaders
predicted a win for the recall in Carabobo. Proyecto
Venezuela National Assembly Deputy Pedro Diaz Blum agreed
that Proyecto Venezuela is orienting its recall propaganda
around an eventual Salas presidential run. End Summary.

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Anger in the CD
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2. (C) Representatives from COPEI, Accion Democratica,
Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS),and Movimiento Trabajo in
Carabobo state complained about the lack of cooperation of
Proyecto Venezuela in the recall referendum drive in talks
with PolOffs July 8 and 9. Lucio Herrera, head of the
Coordinadora Democratica in Carabobo, and regional head of
COPEI, asserted that Proyecto Venezuela is not participating
enthusiastically in the campaign. Not sending high level
people to the Coordinadora Democratica meetings in Carabobo
makes it impossible for Proyecto Venezuela to participate in
Coordinadora decisions, he said. Herrera pointed out that
Proyecto Venezuela has the most resources in the state, due
to its long control of the state government. Herrera said
parties such as Accion Democratica and Movimiento Trabajo are
taking a strong line against Proyecto Venezuela for its
failure to assume its responsibilities in Carabobo. Herrera
said Proyecto Venezuela had failed to fulfill the
responsibilities the Coordinadora gave it during the appeals
process leaving many sites abandoned. He said that in the
referendum, all parties would be involved in the running of
all the electoral sites, in part to keep an eye on Proyecto
Venezuela.


3. (C) Francisco Gonzalez and Francisco Bello, regional
leaders of the Movimiento Trabajo repeated Herrera's
complaints. Bello said the failure of Proyecto Venezuela to
meet its responsibilities forced other parties to make up the
difference, which put serious pressure on their finances.
Gonzalez said Henrique Salas Roemer was running for President
instead of supporting the referendum, in violation of the
Coordinadora's strategy to make the referendum Chavez vs.
Chavez. The local Accion Democratica leadership, and a local
MAS leader also echoed the complaints.

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Salas Responds
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4. (C) Salas told PolOffs that he did not believe the
opposition could defeat Chavez in the referendum without an
alternative candidate. Salas said he thinks there is only a
20% chance Chavez would be defeated, and a 60% chance there
would be no referendum or the result would not be recognized.
Salas said Proyecto Venezuela had conducted a poll in one
million households to see their receptivity to a presidential
campaign by him. He reported only 25% rejection, leading him
to believe the referendum will do better with a candidate. He
said his success running Carabobo, and the need to move
beyond Caracas to find a candidate, made him a logical
choice.


5. (C) Proyecto Venezuela Deputy Pedro Diaz Blum said
Proyecto Venezuela referendum propaganda would be
presidential campaign material for Salas because the proposed

primaries are one week after the referendum. Presuming that
Miranda state Gov. Mendoza would be the prime candidate, Diaz
Blum said he believed Salas would run if the Coordinadora did
not agree to a primary election process to choose the
candidate. Diaz said the Coordinadora's message to the poor,
that they had to get rid of Chavez, was bound to fail. He
said Chavez was the only person who had given poor people
anything, and the opposition had to try to co-opt his
programs, not take him on head on. He admitted that Salas'
biggest problem was his difficult personality.

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MVR POV
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6. (C) PolOffs spoke with MVR Regional Coordinator Felipe
Medina July 8. Medina called Proyecto Venezuela a "state
bureaucracy at the service of a personal dynasty." He said
that Proyecto Venezuela's power in Carabobo could not be
under-estimated, and that the opposition would be strong. He
said he had never seen the "people" so enthusiastic, and said
there was no way Chavez could lose the referendum. If he did
lose, it would be fraud, which might lead to violence. There
might also be violence if the opposition refused to recognize
a Chavez victory, he said.

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CNE Ready
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7. (C) Javier Armas, head of the National Electoral Council
in Carabobo, told PolOffs that the timeline for getting the
voting and fingerprint machines ready, closing the electoral
rolls, and setting up the voting centers was tight, but that
he thought everything would be ready. He reported that the
new voting centers being set up are only for people who have
never been registered, or who have asked to be moved. Other
voting centers will be split into two or more centers, but
they will be within blocks of each other. He said CANTV had
wired the voting centers, though there was only one
Smartmatic machine in Carabobo on July 9. He reported 84
machines would arrive the week of July 12.

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Comment
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8. (C) The dispute between Proyecto Venezuela and the
Coordinadora Democratica does not appear to be a serious
threat to the recall referendum in Carabobo. Salas and
Proyecto Venezuela will work for the referendum, but for
Salas it will be in his own manner, and for his own benefit
as well.
McFarland


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2004CARACA02239 - CONFIDENTIAL