Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2203
2004-07-09 16:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

"SI" RECALL CAMPAIGN MOBILIZES

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002203 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: "SI" RECALL CAMPAIGN MOBILIZES


CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS, FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002203

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: "SI" RECALL CAMPAIGN MOBILIZES


CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS, FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) VENEZUELA'S COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA IS GEARING UP ITS
CAMPAIGN FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RECALL REFERENDUM, ORGANIZING
ITS GET-OUT-THE-VOTE PROGRAMS THROUGH POLITICAL PARTIES AND
CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS. KEY OPPOSITION FIGURES HAVE EMBARKED
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL THROUGHOUT VENEZUELA, THOUGH STAYING
"ON MESSAGE" WITH THE THEMES OF UNITY, UNEMPLOYMENT AND CRIME
REMAINS A CHALLENGE, ACCORDING TO STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS
DIRECTOR JUAN FERNANDEZ. LACK OF CAMPAIGN FUNDS IS A
PRINCIPAL IMPEDIMENT, WITH DONOR ENTHUSIASM CHILLY. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
FOLLOW THE MONEY
--------------


2. (C) THE OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN PERIOD FOR THE RECALL REFERENDUM
AGAINST PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ BEGAN ON JULY 2. AFTER TAKING
NEARLY A MONTH TO ORGANIZE, THE OPPOSITION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
STARTING TO CAMPAIGN, ALBEIT AT A LOWER PROFILE. OPPOSITION
LEADER JUAN FERNANDEZ, THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA'S (CD)
STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR THE RECALL REFERENDUM,
TOLD POLOFF JULY 8 THAT SECURING FUNDING IS A CENTRAL
PRIORITY FOR THE OPPOSITION. FERNANDEZ SAID THE CAMPAIGN
BUDGET CALLED FOR 8 BILLION BOLIVARS (ABOUT USD 2.9 MILLION
AT THE INFORMAL EXCHANGE RATE),BUT ONLY 2.5 BILLION BOLIVARS
(USD 890,000) HAD BEEN COLLECTED. FERNANDEZ SAID TRADITIONAL
DONORS FROM THE BUSINESS SECTOR HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO GIVE
BECAUSE OF DOUBT WHETHER THE OPPOSITION CAN WIN THE
REFERENDUM -- BASED ON THE GREENBERG POLL SHOWING THE RACE AT
A 48-48 TIE. FERNANDEZ SAID THEY HAD RECEIVED REPORTS THE
GOV IS LEANING ON COMPANIES THAT HAVE TRADITIONALLY SUPPORTED
THE REFERENDUM TO DISCOURAGE THEM FROM GIVING.

--------------
MOBILIZATION EFFORTS UNDERWAY
--------------


3. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE GET-OUT-THE-VOTE PROGRAMS ARE WELL
UNDERWAY. POLITICAL PARTIES AND CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS ARE
WORKING AT THE GRASSROOTS FOR VOLUNTEERS TO REACH OUT TO
POTENTIAL VOTERS. THE CD IS ORGANIZING A TRANSPORTATION
PROGRAM ("OPERATION KANGAROO") AND INFORMATION CENTERS
(PROVIDING LEGAL AND LOGISTICAL AID) TO COVER THE VOTING
CENTERS ON AUGUST 15. VOLUNTEERS ARE BEING GIVEN TEN VOTERS

TO CONTACT AND ASSURE THEIR VOTE FOR THE REFERENDUM.
FERNANDEZ SAID THE NGO SUMATE WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN DEVELOPING
THE DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ON THE VOTERS FOR THE
MOBILIZATION EFFORT. THE CD'S REFERENDUM EXECUTIVE
COORDINATOR, ENRIQUE NAIME, TOLD A/DCM JULY 7 THAT THE CD
WOULD EXPLOIT THE INFRASTRUCTURE ("CUEVAS DEL GUACHARO) THAT
THEY HAD DEVELOPED FOR THE APPEALS PROCESS.

--------------
MESSAGE BETTER, BUT DISCIPLINE A PROBLEM
--------------


4. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE CD WILL EMPHASIZE SOCIAL UNITY,
JOBS, AND CRIME AS THEIR KEY THEMES. HE CONCEDED THERE ARE
STILL TOO MANY VOICES SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE OPPOSITION,
AND HE DOES NOT SEE IT PRACTICAL TO SILENCE MOST OF THEM.
FERNANDEZ IS TRYING TO KEEP THE SPEAKERS ON THE SAME PAGE BY
PRODUCING A DAILY MESSAGE EMPHASIZING THE THREE CENTRAL
THEMES AND OTHER POLITICAL MESSAGES. FERNANDEZ SAID THERE IS
A RIGOROUS CAMPAIGN SCHEDULE FOR KEY LEADERS. FERNANDEZ ALSO
COORDINATES SPEAKERS AND THEMES FOR TELEVISION AND RADIO NEWS
COMMENTARY PROGRAMS. HE NOTED THAT THE OPPOSITION PLANS
RELEASE ITS "NATIONAL CONSENSUS PLAN" ON JULY 9.

--------------
CAMPAIGN MATERIALS SCARCE, BUT COMING
--------------


5. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID THE CD HAS BEEN SLOW TO GET CAMPAIGN

CARACAS 00002203 002 OF 002

D THAT POSTER AND PAMPHLET
DESIGN WAS FINISHED, AND THE DEMAND FROM VOLUNTEERS IS GREAT.
CD ADVISORS CONFIRMED THE FINANCE CRUNCH TO POLCOUNS JULY 7,
NOTING THEY HAD TO SCALE BACK PRINT RUNS AND ASK FOR CREDIT
FROM THE PRINTERS. FERNANDEZ SAID ON JULY 8 THEY HAD REACHED
AN AGREEMENT WITH A COMPANY TO DO ALL OF THEIR PRINTING FOR
THE REFERENDUM.

--------------
MEDIA CAMPAIGN SOLID, BUT LIMITED BY RULES
--------------


6. (C) FERNANDEZ SAID RADIO AND TELEVISION ADS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING ON PRIVATE MEDIA OUTLETS. HE SAID RADIO AND
TELEVISION ARE THE OPPOSITION'S PRINCIPAL METHOD FOR REACHING
POORER NEIGHBORHOODS. THE ADS WILL KEY ON THE VOTER'S RIGHT
TO CHOOSE, USING TESTIMONIALS FROM, FOR EXAMPLE, A POOR
UNEMPLOYED PERSON HOPING A CHANGE WILL IMPROVE THE ECONOMY.
FERNANDEZ SAID THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL'S (CNE)
PUBLICITY RULES ARE A HANDICAP FOR THE OPPOSITION, LIMITING
THEM TO JUST THREE MINUTES PER TELEVISION STATION PER DAY.
THE CNE RULES PERMIT PRO-CHAVEZ ADS TO RUN ON PRIVATE MEDIA
AS WELL, WHICH COVERS 95 PERCENT OF THE AUDIENCE. FERNANDEZ
SAID HIS "EQUAL TIME" ON STATE TELEVISION, WITH JUST FIVE
PERCENT OF THE AUDIENCE, WAS NOT A FAIR EXCHANGE. HE ALSO
COMPLAINED THAT CHAVEZ'S "CADENA" BROADCASTS, WHICH PRE-EMPT
ALL PRIVATE RADIO AND TELEVISION, CONTINUE ALMOST DAILY, AND
DO NOT REFRAIN FROM POLITICAL MESSAGES AS THE RULES
STIPULATE.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) FERNANDEZ BELIEVES THE OPPOSITION'S CAMPAIGN IS
BUILDING MOMENTUM SLOWLY AND WILL PEAK IN THE DAYS JUST
BEFORE THE AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM. WE SEE SIGNS THAT THE
OPPOSITION IS INDEED WORKING. THE OPPOSITION HISTORICALLY IS
BEST AT MOBILIZING PEOPLE, SOMETHING THAT IS HARD TO OBSERVE
OR MEASURE UNTIL ELECTION DAY.
MCFARLAND

NNNN
2004CARACA02203 - CONFIDENTIAL