Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2183
2004-07-07 19:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL RECALL TIMELINE

Tags:  PGOV VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002183 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2014
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL RECALL TIMELINE


CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002183

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2014
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENTIAL RECALL TIMELINE


CLASSIFIED BY: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
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1. (C) AS VENEZUELA APPROACHES THE AUGUST 15 PRESIDENTIAL
RECALL VOTE, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS OVER POSSIBLE DELAYS IN THE
RECALL PROCESS AND EXACTLY WHICH EVENT--THE RECALL VOTE OR
THE RELEASE OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS--MUST OCCUR BEFORE AUGUST
19 TO PREVENT TRIGGERING ARTICLE 233 OF THE CONSTITUTION.
ARTICLE 233 STATES THAT IF THE PRESIDENT IS REMOVED IN THE
LAST TWO YEARS OF HIS TERM, HIS VICE PRESIDENT ASSUMES POWER.
WHILE SOME OPPOSITION LEADERS ARE CONFIDENT THAT SHOULD
CHAVEZ LOSE THE RECALL VOTE, THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL
(CNE) OR THE SUPREME COURT (TSJ) WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DELAY
THE PROCESS, NEITHER INSTITUTION IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY
CLARIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. END SUMMARY.


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DATE OF RECALL VERSUS DATE OF OFFICIAL RESULTS
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2. (C) ACCORDING TO THE CNE'S TIMELINE, FOLLOWING THE
PRESIDENTIAL RECALL VOTE ON AUGUST 15, THE CNE HAS THREE DAYS
TO TABULATE THE RESULTS AND WILL PUBLISH THEM BY SEPTEMBER 2.
SOME OPPOSITION MEMBERS ARE CONCERNED THAT IF CHAVEZ THINKS
THAT HE IS LOSING THE REFERENDUM HE MAY ARGUE THAT IS NOT
TECHNICALLY REMOVED UNTIL THE CNE PUBLISHES THE RESULTS. A
CONSTITUTIONAL EXPERT, TULIO ALVAREZ, STATED THAT IT IS NOT
CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE CONSTITUTION IF THE PRESIDENT IS
REVOKED ON THE DATE OF THE ELECTION OR WHEN THE CNE PUBLISHES
THE OFFICIAL RESULTS. IN ALVAREZ'S OPINION, CHAVEZ'S LAST
TWO YEARS DO NOT START UNTIL JANUARY 10, 2005. SO AS LONG AS
THE RECALL IS HELD BEFORE JANUARY, HE ASSERTS, ARTICLE 233
SHOULD NOT BE APPLIED.


3. (C) FELIPE MUJICA, PRESIDENT OF MOVIMIENTO AL SOCIALISMO
(MAS) TOLD POLOFFS JUNE 17 THAT THE LAW IS ON THE
OPPOSITION'S SIDE AND THAT HE IS CONFIDENT THAT SHOULD CHAVEZ
LOSE THE RECALL VOTE THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT TRY TO ARGUE
THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO FOLLOW-ON PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
BECAUSE THE PUBLICATION OF THE RESULTS WILL OCCUR AFTER
AUGUST 19. BORGES STATED ON JUNE 18 THAT THE VENEZUELAN
PEOPLE WOULD NOT PERMIT SUCH A MOVE BY THE GOVERNMENT AND
CLAIMED CHAVEZ WOULD DO NOT ATTEMPT SUCH A STRATEGY FOR FEAR
OF LOSING LEGITIMACY IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.


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NO SIGN FROM CNE OR TSJ
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4. (C) THE CNE HAS BEEN SILENT ON THE DEBATE AND THE TSJ
VAGUE. TSJ RULING OF JUNE 15 DETERMINED THAT CHAVEZ THAT
CHAVEZ COULD RUN IN 2006 IF RECALLED, BUT DID NOT ANNOUNCE
WHETHER CHAVEZ COULD RUN IN THE IMMEDIATE FOLLOW-ON ELECTION
SHOULD HE BE RECALLED. (NOTE: TSJ PRESIDENT RINCON PRIVATELY
TOLD THE AMBASSADOR EARLIER THIS YEAR THAT IF CHAVEZ WERE
RECALLED, HE WOULD PERMIT HIM TO RUN IN THE FOLLOW-ON
ELECTION.) COPEI DEPUTY CESAR PEREZ VIVAS HAS REQUESTED
CLARIFICATION FROM THE TSJ, BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT
THE COURT WILL RESPOND.


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SPECULATIONS AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND
--------------


5. (C) THE RELATIVE SILENCE IN THE CNE AND TSJ HAS LED TO
SPECULATIONS AND THEORIES. BORGES TOLD POLOFFS THAT HE
BELIEVED THAT THE TSJ DID NOT RULE ON WHETHER CHAVEZ COULD
RUN IN A FOLLOW-ON ELECTION TO UNDERMINE OPPOSITION EFFORTS
TO UNITE AROUND A SINGLE CANDIDATE. BORGES SPECULATED THAT
IF MEMBERS OF THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA (CD) THOUGHT THAT
CHAVEZ WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO RUN, THEN THE THERE WOULD BE LESS

CARACAS 00002183 002 OF 002

THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
ARTICLE 233 SHOULD BE INVOKED TO WIN THE RECALL BECAUSE
NEITHER CHAVISTAS NOR OPPOSITION SUPPORTERS WANT VICE
PRESIDENT RANGEL TO BECOME PRESIDENT.


6. (C) ANOTHER RUMOR SWIRLING AROUND THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT
IS THAT CHAVEZ IS WORKING WITH LEFTIST MEMBERS OF THE CD,
PROBABLY MAS OR CAUSA R. ACCORDING TO THIS THEORY, IF CHAVEZ
LOSES THE RECALL, HE WOULD NEGOTIATE WITH THE OPPOSITION TO
NAME A TRANSITIONAL PRESIDENT, AND THUS BYPASS THE
CONSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM FOR SUCCESSION. PRESIDENT OF CAUSA
R, ANDRES VELASQUEZ, ON JUNE 22 TOLD POLOFFS A DIFFERENT
VERSION OF THE RUMOR, STATING THAT HE HAD HEARD THAT CHAVEZ
WAS GOING TO DELAY THE RECALL UNTIL AFTER AUGUST 19 AND
NEGOTIATE WITH UNKNOWN ELEMENTS OF THE OPPOSITION ON WHO
WOULD BE THE TRANSITIONAL PRESIDENT.


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COMMENT
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7. (C) NEITHER THE CNE NOR THE TSJ ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY
CLARIFICATION TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENTIAL
RECALL PROCESS. IT SERVES CHAVEZ'S INTERESTS TO KEEP THIS
POINT FUZZY UNTIL THE RESULTS OF THE REFERENDUM ARE KNOWN,
AND WHEN CHAVEZ CAN JUDGE WHAT BEST SUITS HIS INTERESTS AND
WHAT HE CAN AND CANNOT GET AWAY WITH.
MCFARLAND

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2004CARACA02183 - CONFIDENTIAL