CHAVEZ PADS VOTES WITH NATURALIZATION AND IDENTITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002153

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE CONS
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ PADS VOTES WITH NATURALIZATION AND IDENTITY
CARDS

REF: CARACAS 2081

CLASSIFIED BY: MARK A. WELLS, ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR,
FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) THE GOV'S "MISION IDENTIDAD" (MISSION IDENTITY) IS
PROVIDING CEDULAS (IDENTITY CARDS) TO MASSIVE NUMBERS OF
UNDOCUMENTED VENEZUELANS AND FOREIGNERS. THE GOV IS WORKING
BUSILY VIA THE MISSION TO ISSUE IDENTITY CARDS TO POTENTIAL
VOTERS BEFORE THE JULY 10 ELECTORAL REGISTRY DEADLINE FOR THE
AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM. WHILE THESE EFFORTS PURPORT TO CORRECT
AN HISTORIC INJUSTICE OF DENYING IDENTITY DOCUMENTS (AND,
THUS, THE RIGHT TO VOTE) TO THE POOR, THE TRUE PURPOSE OF THE
CAMPAIGN IS TO REGISTER AS MANY VOTERS AS POSSIBLE FROM
VENEZUELA'S LOWER CLASS, WHICH IS DECIDEDLY PRO-CHAVEZ. THE
MISSION USES MILITARY BASES, MOBILE CEDULA UNITS, AND
CUBAN-TRAINED "SOCIAL WORKERS" TO PROVIDE THE CEDULAS AND
REGISTER THE VOTERS SIMULTANEOUSLY. END SUMMARY.

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MISSION IDENTITY - OIL MONEY AND CUBAN TRAINING
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2. (C) THE GOV LAUNCHED "MISSION IDENTITY" IN EARLY 2004 WITH
A GOAL OF PROVIDING CEDULAS (NATIONAL IDENTITY CARDS) TO SIX
MILLION CITIZENS, PARTICULARLY POOR VENEZUELANS, WHO HAVE
HISTORICALLY HAD DIFFICULTY OBTAINING IDENTITY DOCUMENTS.
STATE-RUN OIL COMPANY PDVSA PROVIDED TRUCKS FOR MOBILE UNITS,
A PROGRAM DUBBED "CEDULA EXPRESS." THE GOV IS USING AS MANY
AS 100 OF THESE MOBILE UNITS, AS WELL AS MILITARY BASES
AROUND THE COUNTRY AS OUTPOSTS FOR CEDULA DISTRIBUTION.
DANIEL CORTEZ, A FORMER GOV SUPERVISOR OF IDENTITY CARD
OFFICIALS WHO NOW WORKS WITH THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA,
TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE 29 THAT 800 CUBAN-TRAINED FRANCISCO DE
MIRANDA FRONT (FFM) "SOCIAL WORKERS" AND VENEZUELAN ARMY
PERSONNEL RUN MISSION IDENTITY, RATHER THAN THE MINISTER OF
INTERIOR AND JUSTICE'S DIRECTORATE FOR IMMIGRATION (DIEX).
LAPTOPS AND ON-SITE CARD MAKERS CREATE A QUICK SYSTEM OF
DISTRIBUTION, ALLOWING VENEZUELANS TO OBTAIN A CEDULA IN LESS
THAN 20 MINUTES. DIEX DIRECTOR GENERAL CABEZAS TOLD
REPORTERS IN JUNE THAT TWO MILLION PEOPLE HAVE RECEIVED
CEDULAS SINCE THE NEW AUTOMATED SYSTEM STARTED IN OCTOBER

2003. CORTEZ CONFIRMED THIS ESTIMATE TO POLOFF, BUT
CAUTIONED THAT A LARGE PERCENTAGE OF THE NEW CEDULAS ARE
MERELY REPLACEMENTS FOR OLD CEDULAS.
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PAPER-THIN SECURITY
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3. (C) RINCON ASSERTS THAT THE NEW VENEZUELAN CEDULAS ARE
SOME OF THE MOST SECURE IDENTITY CARDS IN THE WORLD. THE
FINGER PRINT, SECURITY PAPER, AND LAMINATION GIVE THE CEDULAS
"AN ABSOLUTE GUARANTEE OF SECURITY," RINCON TOLD REPORTERS.
DISPLAYING BOTH NEW AND OLD CEDULAS, CORTEZ POINTED OUT HOW
SECURITY FEATURES HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NEW CEDULA. BEYOND
THE PHYSICAL SECURITY FEATURES, THE CEDULAS ARE NOT RELIABLE
BECAUSE OF THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM. VENEZUELAN OR FOREIGNER,
LITTLE DOCUMENTATION IS NEEDED AT THE MOBILE UNITS TO SECURE
A CEDULA, SAID CORTEZ, WHO REPORTED THAT HE REPLACED HIS OWN
CEDULA SIMPLY BY TELLING THE OFFICIAL HIS IDENTITY NUMBER.
OPPOSITION GROUPS CLAIM THAT THE GOV IS GIVING CEDULAS TO
FOREIGNERS WITHOUT DOCUMENTATION IN ATTEMPT TO ADD MORE
CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS TO THE VOTING REGISTRY. CAUSA R, A
LEFT-WING OPPOSITION PARTY, HAS ACCUSED THE GOV OF ILLEGALLY
NATURALIZING "THOUSANDS OF FOREIGNERS AND THOUSANDS OF
CRIMINALS TO FILL THE VOTING REGISTRY." IN ADDITION, WE HAVE
HEARD REPORTS THAT THE GOV IS USING A LIST OF THE PEOPLE WHO
SIGNED THE REAFIRMAZO (THE PETITIONS TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO
CHAVEZ) TO DENY CEDULAS AND, THUS, DISCRIMINATE AGAINST
CHAVEZ OPPONENTS. ONE PRESS STORY SHOWED TWO PEOPLE WHO
SIGNED WHO WERE DENIED CEDULAS AT A MOBILE SITE. THEY WERE
TOLD THEY WOULD HAVE TO APPLY DIRECTLY WITH DIEX, A PROCESS
THAT CAN TAKE MONTHS.

CARACAS 00002153 002 OF 002

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4. (C) PART OF THE CAMPAIGN TO REGISTER MORE VOTERS INCLUDES
THE NATURALIZATION OF FOREIGNERS. CORTEZ, WHO LEFT HIS DIEX
POST IN JANUARY, TOLD POLOFF THAT 16,000 FOREIGNERS WERE
NATURALIZED IN MARCH. IN JUNE, THE GOV NATURALIZED 105,000
FOREIGNERS WITHIN ONE WEEK, PART OF ITS GOAL TO NATURALIZE
200,000 BEFORE JULY 10. (NOTE: THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF
NATURALIZATIONS PER YEAR PREVIOUSLY HAD BEEN 3,000 TO 4,000.
END NOTE.) THE NATURALIZED CITIZENS WILL RECEIVE CEDULAS AND
BE REGISTERED TO VOTE IMMEDIATELY. PART OF THE GOV
REFERENDUM CAMPAIGN, THE NATURALIZATION EVENTS HAVE A CLEAR
POLITICAL BENT. AT A NATURALIZATION CEREMONY ON JUNE 25,
VICE PRESIDENT JOSE VICENTE RANGEL ASKED THE NEWLY
NATURALIZED CITIZENS HOW THEY WOULD VOTE IN THE AUGUST 15
REFERENDUM. AFTER EXHORTING EVERYONE TO VOTE "NO," HE
PROCLAIMED, "THERE IS NOT ONE VOTE FOR 'YES' (TO REVOKE
CHAVEZ)."

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REFERENDUM IMPLICATIONS
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5. (C) THE CNE ESTIMATES THAT THERE ARE OVER THREE MILLION
VENEZUELANS WHO ARE NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE. MISSION IDENTITY
PERSONNEL, AFTER ISSUING CEDULAS, ALSO FILL OUT CNE VOTER
APPLICATIONS FOR THE RECIPIENTS. CORTEZ ESTIMATED THAT GOV
EFFORTS COULD INCREASE THE VOTER REGISTRATION POOL FROM 12
MILLION TO 14 MILLION PEOPLE FOR THE AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM.
MVR DEPUTY JUAN BARRETO TOLD POLOFF THAT VOTER REGISTRATION
AND MOBILIZATION OF LOWER CLASS VENEZUELANS IS A PRINCIPAL
PART OF THE GOV REFERENDUM STRATEGY (SEE REFTEL). BARRETO
SAID BARRIO ADENTRO (THE GOV MISSION TO PLACE CUBAN DOCTORS
IN POOR NEIGHBORHOODS) DOCTORS ARE IDENTIFYING PATIENTS
WITHOUT CEDULAS AND FFM "SOCIAL WORKERS" ARE THEN HELPING THE
PATIENTS ACQUIRE CEDULAS. THE GOV IS ALSO RUNNING MULTI-PAGE
ADVERTISEMENTS IN STATE-RUN NEWSPAPERS TO ENCOURAGE VOTER
REGISTRATION AND PUBLICIZE THE 600 VOTER REGISTRATION CENTERS
OPERATED BY THE CNE. CARACAS DAILY TAL CUAL REPORTED JUNE
29, HOWEVER, THAT ONLY 246,938 NEW NAMES HAD BEEN REGISTERED
IN THE ELECTORAL REGISTRY IN APRIL AND MAY, SUGGESTING THE
CHAVISTAS ARE RUNNING SHORT OF THEIR GOAL.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) HAVING AN IDENTITY DOCUMENT IS A MAJOR BOOST FOR
FACILITATING THE DAILY LIFE OF VENEZUELANS. MANY OF THE
COLOMBIANS RECEIVING CEDULAS HAVE LIVED IN VENEZUELA FOR
YEARS, EVEN DECADES, AND SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED CEDULAS LONG
AGO. THERE ARE LEGITIMATE REASONS TO BELIEVE THAT A CEDULA
CAMPAIGN BEFORE AN ELECTORAL EVENT IS VALID, BUT THE GOV IS
UNABASHEDLY LINKING CEDULAS TO VOTES FOR CHAVEZ. IT IS HARD
FOR THE OPPOSITION TO DENOUNCE THE PROGRAM AT THE RISK OF
APPEARING TO OPPOSE POOR PEOPLE HAVING IDENTITY CARDS. WE DO
NOT BELIEVE CHAVEZ WILL WIN THE REFERENDUM WITH THIS PLAN
ALONE. AS THE FIRMAZO DEMONSTRATED, MANY POOR PEOPLE ARE
CAPABLE OF RECEIVING BENEFITS FROM THE GOV ON THE ONE HAND,
AND STILL EXPRESS THEMSELVES AGAINST THE GOV. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE POOR'S TENDENCY TO SUPPORT CHAVEZ, THE "CEDULA EXPRESS"
PROGRAM COULD MEAN NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL NUMBERS OF VOTES FOR
CHAVEZ ON AUGUST 15.
SHAPIRO

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2004CARACA02153 - CONFIDENTIAL