Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2123
2004-06-29 21:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION FINALLY LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL RECALL

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002123 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FINALLY LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL RECALL
CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

REF: A. CARACAS 02037


B. CARACAS 02087

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

-------
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002123

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQ USSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FINALLY LAUNCHES PRESIDENTIAL RECALL
CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

REF: A. CARACAS 02037


B. CARACAS 02087

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) After three weeks of wrangling, the Coordinadora
Democratica (CD) on June 25 launched its presidential recall
campaign committee and swore in members of its 'yes
commands.' Enrique Mendoza, Governor of Miranda and likely
presidential candidate in a possible follow-on election, said
in a televised event that the opposition has approximately
500,000 volunteers ready to participate in the CD's campaign
effort, which will focus on national unity and expose
Chavez's failure to combat rising crime and unemployment.
Key opposition leaders told Poloffs that they think their
message will resonate with undecided voters and moderate
Chavez supporters. The opposition has yet to deliver this
message to those key groups, nor has it announced its much
anticipated governance plan. End Summary.

--------------
CD launches campaign effort
--------------


2. (U) On June 25, the CD announced its national campaign
committee, its answer to Chavez's Comando Maisanta. Enrique
Mendoza led the televised event and claimed that several of
hundreds of thousands of volunteers will work in "Comandos
por el Si," the opposition's local campaign committees. He
was joined by the other twelve members of the national
campaign committee:

Alejandro Armas--National Assembly (NA) Deputy from the
Solidaridad party

Albis Munoz--President of Fedecamaras

Cesar Perez Vivas--COPEI Deputy from Tachira state

Rafael Huizi Clavier--leader of the Institutional Military
Front

Pompeyo Marquez--an opposition wise man and a leader of Union
party

Juan Fernandez--President of Gente de Petroleo

Jesus Torrealba--head of CD's public relations

Henry Ramos Allup--President of AD

Julio Borges--President of Primero Justicia

Felipe Mujica--President of MAS

Jorge Sucre--Proyecto Venezuela

Manuel Cova--leader of the Confederation of Workers of
Venezuela


-------------- --------------
Slow Decision Making Process Hampering Opposition

-------------- --------------


3. (C) On June 25, Juan Fernandez expressed his frustration
with the CD's slow decision making process to Poloffs. He
stated that bickering among the parties and groups over the
size and membership of the campaign committee delayed its
launch by nearly three weeks. Fernandez--who is in charge of
the CD's communications committee--said that the CD's poor
decision making process is also undermining the
communications effort. He gave the example of the recent


television advertisements telling supporters that "it's now
or never" in describing the signature appeals process.
Fernandez claimed he bypassed the regular decision making
process and got Enrique Mendoza to sign off on the
advertisements. Fernandez claimed that if he had worked
within the regular process, the proposal would still be in
the discussion phase. Fernandez added that, despite the
success of the ads, CD members are still debating whether it
was the right message.


--------------
Getting the Message Out
--------------


4. (C) Opposition leaders are confident that the opposition
will win the recall vote, despite the recent Greenberg poll,
which showed that the CD and the government are at a dead
heat (ref a). Fernandez stated that the opposition is going
after undecided voters, the so called "ni-ni," as well as
moderate Chavistas. In particular, the CD is targeting young
people, women and the poor with a three-point message of
reuniting the polarized country and highlighting Chavez's
inability to control rising crime and unemployment. (Note:
This is the advice of the CD's Washington consultants,
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner.) To deliver this three-pronged
message, Fernandez said that the CD will not only use
television advertisements, but also develop campaign
literature and go to the poor neighborhoods where the
majority of Venezuelans live. At the same time, the
opposition leadership is looking to reinvigorate its support
base Fernandez claimed that the June 25 event was designed
in large part to reenergize CD's core followers.



5. (C) Alejandro Armas told Poloffs on June 23 that the
opposition would use SUMATE's telephone database of more than
4 million supporters to rally the faithful. Armas believes
the opposition must give a vision to voters that they are
capable of governing through 2006. He noted the importance
of making voters understand that Venzuelan democracy and
institutions are at stake.


--------------
What about the Governance Plan?
--------------


6. (C) The fanfare of the June 25 event failed to mention
the anticipated governance plan nor the country consensus
plan--a detailed proposal for a transitional
government--despite previous claims from opposition insiders
that the CD would do so on June 25 (ref b). The campaign
committee did not state when either plan would be announced.
According to the CD literature, the political
committee--whose 60 members were responsible for naming the
campaign committee--is also responsible for the governance
plan and the country consensus plan, as well as the method
for selection a candidate for a possible follow on election.
Details of both plans are sketchy and will probably focus in
varying degrees of detail on similar issues of national
unity, pledging to revive the economy while at the same time
addressing social concerns.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) The opposition's campaign command is developing an
electoral message that should resonate not only with its
support base, but with moderate Chavistas and undecided
voters. However, the opposition has yet to demonstrate that
it can translate these ideas into campaign actions. The CD's
slow decision making process will likely hamper its ability
to compete against Chavez, who has direct control over his
Comando Maisanta and has access to the government coffers.


We do not meant to count the opposition out, as it is
typically clumsy at the outset of its campaigns. And, while
it is slow to reach internal agreements -- the opposition
runs the gamut from right to left -- the opposition has shown
its skill at organizing voting centers. But with just six
weeks left before the referendum, the opposition needs to get
moving.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA02123 - CONFIDENTIAL