Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2087
2004-06-25 19:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

NEW REFERENDUM POLLING FIGURES

Tags:  PGOV KDEM VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002087 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NEW REFERENDUM POLLING FIGURES


CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D
)

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002087

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
USAID DCHA/OTI FOR RPORTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2014
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: NEW REFERENDUM POLLING FIGURES


CLASSIFIED BY: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (D
)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) GREENBERG, ROSNER AND QUINLAN (GRQ) SHOWED THE
OPPOSITION THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF ITS LATEST POLL
REGARDING THE AUGUST 15 REFERENDUM. THE FIGURES SHOW THAT
VOTERS ARE SPLIT 48-TO-48 ON WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT
HUGO CHAVEZ. GRQ REP MARK FEIERSTIEN CONTENDED THAT WITH THE
ECONOMY DOING WELL AND CHAVEZ APPEARING INCREASINGLY
DEMOCRATIC AFTER CALLING FOR THE REFERENDUM, THE OPPOSITION
MUST ESTABLISH ITS ELECTORAL MESSAGE, WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ON
CHAVEZ,S DISMAL RECORD ON JOBS, SOCIETAL UNITY AND CRIME.
END SUMMARY.

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PRELIMINARY FIGURES
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2. (C) MARK FEIERSTIEN OF GREENBERG, ROSNER AND QUINLAN
(GRQ) TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE 24 THE PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF GRQ'S
LATEST POLL REGARDING THE AUGUST 15 PRESIDENTIAL RECALL
REFERENDUM. THE FIGURES, COLLECTED AFTER THE REFERENDUM WAS
CONVOKED, SHOW THAT LIKELY VOTERS ARE SPLIT 48-TO-48 OVER
WHETHER TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ. FEIERSTIEN OFFERED
THREE REASONS FOR THE FIGURES. FIRST, CHAVISTAS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO VOTE NOW THAT THERE IS A REFERENDUM. SECOND, THE
ECONOMY HAS DONE WELL IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS, WITH HIGH OIL
PRICES AND MASSIVE SOCIAL SPENDING. LASTLY, BY GOING FORWARD
WITH THE REFERENDUM, CHAVEZ DEMONSTRATED HIS "COMMITMENT" TO
DEMOCRACY AND WON HIMSELF INCREASED SUPPORT. FEIERSTIEN SAID
CHAVEZ WOULD WIN THE REFERENDUM IF THESE TRENDS ARE NOT
ARRESTED NOW.

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A MESSAGE TO THE OPPOSITION
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3. (C) FEIERSTIEN SAID HE DELIVERED THESE RESULTS TO A
SELECT GROUP OF SENIOR OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES. HE
OBSERVED THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS TO FOCUS ITS REFERENDUM
CAMPAIGN AGAINST CHAVEZ AND HIS DISMAL RECORD ON JOBS,
SOCIETAL UNITY AND CRIME. HE ASSERTED THE OPPOSITION SHOULD
STAY AWAY FROM THE ISSUES OF DEMOCRACY, AS CHAVEZ APPEARS
MORE DEMOCRATIC AFTER CALLING THE REFERENDUM. CORRUPTION IS
ALSO A POOR THEME, FEIERSTIEN SAID, UNLESS A MAJOR SCANDAL
ERUPTS DIRECTLY IMPLICATING CHAVEZ. THOSE POLLED DID NOT
VIEW CHAVEZ AS CORRUPT, RATHER BELIEVING THE OPPOSITION TO BE
WORSE. FEIERSTIEN ALSO CONTENDED THAT THE OPPOSITION SHOULD
NOT SPEND EXCESSIVE TIME WRANGLING OVER THE ISSUES OF VOTING
MACHINES AND INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, BUT SHOULD CONCENTRATE
ON ESTABLISHING ITS ELECTORAL MESSAGE.

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COMMENT
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4. (C) THE POLL IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE IT IS THE FIRST
"POST-REPAROS" POLL. CHAVEZ GOT A BUMP OUT OF ACCEPTING THE
REFERENDUM. PREVIOUS POLLS ALSO MAY NOT HAVE ACCURATELY
GAUGED THE COMMITMENT OF CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS, WHO DID NOT
BELIEVE THERE WOULD BE A REFERENDUM. ADMITTEDLY, GRQ IS
SELLING ITS SERVICES AS AN ELECTORAL CONSULTANT AND THIS IS
ITS SALES PRESENTATION. HOWEVER, THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR:
CHAVEZ IS FAR FROM FINISHED AND THE OPPOSITION HAS A TOUGH
CHALLENGE AHEAD.
SHAPIRO

NNNN
2004CARACA02087 - CONFIDENTIAL