FELIPE MUJICA ON HOW TO BEAT CHAVEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002063

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2014
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: FELIPE MUJICA ON HOW TO BEAT CHAVEZ


Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MARK WELLS FOR REASONS 1.4 (d
)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On June 17, Political officers met with Felipe Mujica,
President of Movimiento a Socialismo (MAS) and one of the
leading Coordinadora Democratica (CD) negotiators with the
National Electoral Council (CNE). Mujica outlined what he
thought should be the CD's campaign strategy for the
presidential recall referendum. He largely dismissed
concerns about the automated voting process and laid out what
he thought were the lessons learned from the failed Comando
Ayacucho. End Summary.

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How to win the recall
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2. (C) Mujica said that the CD is trying to overcome
infighting to select its campaign command, which would
consist of 13 to 15 members. He warned that any effort by
the CD to run on an anti-corruption platform would backfire,
given the corruption of previous governments. Instead, the
MAS President is encouraging the opposition to focus on
Chavez's failures, particularly the deteriorating economic
conditions of many Venezuelans. In addition, he believed
that a plan that focuses on unity, peace, and the resolution
of the political conflict would appeal to much of the public,
which is tired of the ongoing crisis. Mujica pointed to the
success the Chilean opposition had in using a similar
strategy to defeat Pinochet.


3. (C) The MAS President noted that the CD is still
developing its strategy, but was confident that the CD is on
track. He also said that it would be clear by July 30 how
the referendum would come out.

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Not too worried about recent CNE decisions
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4. (C) Mujica again dismissed any concerns that the wording
of the recall question would benefit Chavez, repeating that
"We Venezuelans are not idiots" and can properly read the
recall question. In regards to the automated voting system,
which has caused much angst within the opposition movement,
the MAS President warned that a manual system would also have
been vulnerable to tampering. Mujica acknowledged that the
CD must negotiate as much control and supervision over the
voting and tabulating process as possible. He appeared
confident that the CD's computer experts, particularly in
SUMATE, would strengthen the opposition's ability to properly
monitor the automated system.


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Chavistas afraid of telling the truth
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5. (C) Mujica claimed the Chavistas' unwillingness to tell
Chavez the truth contributed to the failure of the Comando
Ayacucho in the signature appeals process. According to
Mujica, Comando Ayacucho members were afraid to admit to
Chavez that they were not going to be able to get enough
people to recant their signatures in order to prevent a
recall referendum vote. He also claimed that membership in
the new Comando Maisanta is based solely on loyalty to
Chavez.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Mujica's thinking tracks with polls that suggest the
opposition's ideal themes are reconciliation and

re-unification of Venezuela. The opposition still faces an
uphill battle and is hampered by its slow internal
deliberations to select campaign leadership. As the recall
vote approaches, the CD leadership will likely face
increasing pressure to not only demonstrate Chavez's
failures, but offer a viable alternative to the current
government.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA02063 - CONFIDENTIAL