OPPOSITION DEVELOPING A "GOVERNANCE PACT"

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002037

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2014

TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DEVELOPING A "GOVERNANCE PACT"

REF: CARACAS 2707

Classified By: Mark A. Wells, Acting Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) A "brain trust" of informal consultants is working
with the Coordinadora Democratica (CD) to develop a
post-Chavez governance plan to help convince Venezuelans to
vote against President Hugo Chavez in the August 15 recall
referendum. Fernando Martinez Mottola, a consultant for the
CD, said the plan, which includes the key issues of
employment, personal security, health, education, and social
security will create a basic framework and a set of
objectives for an opposition-led government. Opposition
leaders told the Ambassador on June 16 that this governance
plan will serve as the Coordinadora Democratica's (CD)
substantive agenda for the referendum campaign. Martinez
said plan would be ready by June 25, but it would not be a
major component of the campaign until some technical issues
(i.e. automation, observers) are resolved. Given the diverse
composition of the opposition, it will be a challenge to
develop a consensus agenda that resonates with voters. End
summary.

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Opposition Develops Its Message
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2. (C) On June 16, Fernando Martinez Mottola, a businessman
and member of the opposition "brain trust" that consults
informally with the CD, met with PolOff to outline the
strategy behind a "governance pact," which aims to provide a
broad strategic plan for a post-Chavez, opposition-led
government. The plan will include themes such as employment,
personal security, health, education, and social security. In
addition, the plan will address four central themes:
reconciliation, decentralization, continuity of democracy,
and social issues.


3. (C) The political diversity of the opposition will not
permit a detailed document, said Martinez, but rather broad
guiding principles aimed at alleviating Venezuela's social
problems, improving economic policy, and re-establishing
institutional integrity. Martinez said that the CD hopes to
provide potential voters with a governance plan that
incorporates ideas from previous opposition-affiliated plans.
Various transition plans have already been offered by Gente
de Petroleo, economist Gerver Torres, academics at Andres
Bello Catholic University, and a special CD committee.

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Timing is Everything
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4. (C) Martinez said the CD would not present its governance
plan until technical referendum issues, such as automation
and international observers, are resolved. Martinez said the
opposition must also attack Chavez effectively on social
issues as part of its presentation. He predicted the CD
would not be ready to release the governance plan until a few
weeks before the referendum. (Separately, Martinez told the
Ambassador June 16 the plan would be ready by June 25.)

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Comment
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5. (C) The opposition needs to maintain its unity above all
and avoid fractious debates over transition plans. But
developing a common substantive agenda is a necessary
component of its overall recall referendum campaign. Finding
a balance between satisfying its diverse composition and
delivering a credible, meaningful message to the electorate
remains the challenge for the opposition.


6. (C) At a June 16 luncheon hosted by the Ambassador,
opposition heavy weights Alberto Quiroz, Teodoro Petkoft and
Pompeyo Marquez insisted that for the referendum, the heart
of the opposition's message would be negative - Chavez has
failed. Within that message special attention would be given
to the theme of the Chavez government's corruption. This
message in any event is one the whole opposition can agree
upon.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA02037 - CONFIDENTIAL