Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS2036
2004-06-18 21:01:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

REFERENDUM DEVELOPMENTS: QUESTIONS UPON QUESTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM VE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002036 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM DEVELOPMENTS: QUESTIONS UPON QUESTIONS


Classified By: Mark Wells, Acting Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002036

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM DEVELOPMENTS: QUESTIONS UPON QUESTIONS


Classified By: Mark Wells, Acting Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) A Supreme Court (TSJ) decision on June 8 determined
that a recalled Chavez may run for president in 2006, but
left unclear whether he may participate in presidential
election 30 days after the recall vote. The National
Electoral Council (CNE) on June 15 approved the question for
the recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez planned
for August 15. The question does not use the constitutional
language of a "recall," but rather asks voters whether they
agree to invalidate Chavez's "legitimate and democratic"
mandate. Despite the ambiguities of the TSJ's decision, we
assume Chavez will indeed be allowed to run in the subsequent
elections if recalled. End summary.

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TSJ Lets Chavez Run Again, Maybe

SIPDIS
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2. (U) The Constitutional Chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme
Court (TSJ) issued a decision June 15 that said a recalled
Chavez may run in the 2006 presidential elections, but left
unclear whether he would be permitted to run in the elections
to be held 30 days after the August 15 referendum in the
event he is recalled. The case arose from a constitutional
provision (art. 198) that prohibits National Assembly
deputies who are recalled from running for the next full
term. The decision, which was approved three-to-two by the
pro-Chavez majority of the Constitutional Chamber, said this
prohibition did not apply to the President. Dissenting
opinions from two opposition magistrates criticized the
decision for being silent on the pertinent question of
whether Chavez can be re-elected just after being recalled.
The dissenting justices argued that to permit a recalled
official to run immediately for the same office effectively
nullified the referendum process.


3. (U) Constitutional lawyers offered an array of
interpretations. Tulio Alvarez said it was clear the Court
had said Chavez would be "definitively separated" from his
office for his current term. Alvarez concluded from this
that Chavez may not run again. Esteban Gerbasi, the lawyer

who filed the original petition with the TSJ and member of
the opposition party Un Solo Pueblo, said the decision
requires clarification, which he said he intends to request.
Academic Rafael Chavero told reporters the Constitutional
Chamber could easily have clarified the decision with "two
more lines," and had apparently decided not to resolve the
issue.

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CNE Approves The Question
--------------


4. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) board approved
June 15 the formulation of the question to be asked for the
August 15 recall referendum against President Hugo Chavez.
The question was approved three-to-two by the pro-Chavez
majority of the CNE board. Although the 1999 Constitution
uses the term "revoke" when referring to the referendum, the
CNE opted instead to ask: "Are you in agreement with
invalidating the popular mandate granted to Citizen Hugo
Rafael Chavez Frias via democratic and legitimate elections
as the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela for
the current presidential term? Option 1: No, Option 2:
Yes." Rodriguez told reporters the board chose a question
that was sufficiently clear, that could be answered with a
"yes" or "no," and "had the effect of revoking the mandate"
of the official.


5. (U) Reaction to the question was subdued. Coordinadora
Democratica (CD) negotiator Felipe Mujica said the question
was "badly formulated" but left the opposition with the "yes"
option it has used as a symbol for more than a year. Mujica

said the question was not important, noting that "Venezuelans
are not idiots" and would understand how to vote. Fellow
opposition negotiator Alberto Quiros Corradi called the CNE's
phrasing "childish" and denied it would have any effect on
the process.

--------------
CNE Releases Timeline
--------------


6. (U) The CNE released on June 16 the timeline for the
presidential referendum. The timeline sets the public
campaign period for July 16 - August 14, though both sides
arguably are already engaged in politicking. The electoral
registry will be closed on July 10. International observers
will be registered August 11-13, according to the timeline.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) The anti-Chavez legal experts are putting their best
spin on the TSJ decision by saying that a recalled Chavez
cannot run until 2006. No matter how compelling logic and
the legal arguments may be, however, there has been a general
assumption in the political arena that Chavez would, in fact,
be able to run again immediately if recalled. TSJ President
Ivan Rincon made that clear to the Ambassador in late 2003.
Not to permit Chavez to run again would practically guarantee
a win by the opposition candidate. It is unlikely Chavez
would allow a Court decision to bench him for (at least) two
years. And, in light of Chavez's control over the
Constitutional Chamber, any clarifications the TSJ may be
compelled to make will no doubt tip to his favor. The only
plausible scenario in which Chavez does not run after a
referendum defeat would be if the referendum were to produce
an overwhelming rejection of him by the Venezuelan people --
a political rather than a legal defeat.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA02036 - CONFIDENTIAL