CNE SETS AUGUST 15 FOR CHAVEZ RECALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001950

SIPDIS


NSC FOR C. BARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CNE SETS AUGUST 15 FOR CHAVEZ RECALL


CLASSIFIED BY: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR REASON 1.4 (D)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (U) FRANCISCO CARRASQUERO, PRESIDENT OF VENEZUELA'S
NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL, OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED JUNE 8 THAT
OPPONENTS OF PRESIDENT CHAVEZ HAD OBTAINED SUFFICIENT
SIGNATURES TO PETITION FOR A REFERENDUM TO RECALL THE
PRESIDENT. ACCORDING TO THE CNE TALLIES, THE OPPOSITION
OBTAINED 2,541,636 SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF
THE ELECTORATE NEEDED. CARRASQUERO SET AUGUST 15 AS THE DATE
FOR THE VOTE, AND ADDED THAT THE BALLOTING WOULD BE
COMPUTERIZED. THE OPPOSITION HAD STRONGLY FAVORED AN AUGUST
8 DATE AND MANUAL BALLOTING. COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA
NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF THE MOVEMENT TO
SOCIALISM -- MAS) CRITICIZED THE CNE FOR BACKTRACKING ON THE
AGREED AUGUST 8 DATE, BUT ASSERTED THAT THE OPPOSITION WOULD
TURN OUT MILLIONS OF VOTERS TO RECALL THE PRESIDENT
REGARDLESS OF THE DATE. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) IN A NATIONALLY BROADCAST (CADENA) STATEMENT JUNE 8,
NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) PRESIDENT ANNOUNCED THE
OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE OPPOSITION'S PETITION FOR A
REFERENDUM TO RECALL PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ WHICH BEGAN WITH
THE FOUR-DAY SIGNATURE DRIVE AT THE END OF NOVEMBER 2003.
CARRASQUERO REPORTED THAT THE OPPOSITION OBTAINED 2,541,636
VALID SIGNATURES, 105,533 MORE THAN THE 20% OF THE ELECTORATE
NEEDED TO CONVOKE THE REFERENDUM. IN THE MAY 27-31 APPEALS
PROCESS, CARRASQUERO SAID, 773,755 VENEZUELANS CONFIRMED
THEIR SIGNATURES, WHILE 91,669 RETRACTED THEIR SIGNATURES
FROM THE PETITION. (OPPOSITION TABULATED RESULTS SHOWED
FEWER CONFIRMED SIGNATURES, 754,397 AND MORE RETRACTED
SIGNATURES 95,777.)


3. (U) CARRASQUERO ALSO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REFERENDUM WOULD
TAKE PLACE AUGUST 15. THE CNE PRESIDENT ALSO SAID THE
BALLOTING WOULD BE COMPUTERIZED. CHAVEZ OPPONENTS HAD
ADVOCATED FOR THE REFERENDUM TO BE HELD AUGUST 8, ARGUING
THAT AUGUST 15 IS TO CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD DATE OF AUGUST
AFTER WHICH THE VICE PRESIDENT WOULD TAKE OVER IN CASE THEY
ARE ABLE TO REVOKE CHAVEZ INSTEAD OF THERE BEING NEW
ELECTIONS. THEY ALSO ARGUED THAT COMPUTERIZED BALLOTING WAS
NOT NECESSARY IN A SIMPLE VOTE SUCH AS THIS, THAT THE SYSTEM
IS UNTRIED AND SUBJECT TO MANIPULATION, AND THAT RISK OF
SYSTEMS FAILURE OR FAULTY PREPARATIONS COULD PUSH THE
REFERENDUM BEYOND AUGUST 15.


4. (U) GOV OFFICIALS HAVE NOT REACTED PUBLICLY TO
CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT. MIRANDA STATE GOV. ENRIQUE
MENDOZA, SPEAKING FOR THE COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA JUNE 9,
TOLD REPORTERS THE DATE MADE NO DIFFERENCE BECAUSE THE
OPPOSITION WAS PREPARED TO WIN. "THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
RESPONSE WILL ALWAYS BE THE SAME: THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO
HAVE A NEW PRESIDENT." MENDOZA ECHOED COMMENTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT BY COORDINADORA
NEGOTIATOR FELIPE MUJICA (PRESIDENT OF MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM
-- MAS). MUJICA SAID THE SETBACKS ON THE DATE AND
COMPUTERIZATION WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE THE OPPOSITION
WAS PREPARED TO DEFEAT CHAVEZ ON AUGUST 15 WITH MILLIONS OF
VOTES.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) CARRASQUERO'S ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE OFFICIAL RESULTS
BROADLY DEFINED THE PARAMETERS FOR THE RECALL. A ROUGH AND
TUMBLE CAMPAIGN WILL OCCUPY CENTER STAGE AND PUBLIC
ATTENTION. THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCERN, HOWEVER, IS WHETHER
THE GOV CAN AND WILL ENSURE A FAIR BALLOTING. WE KNOW THE
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN IN THE GOV'S CROSSHAIRS AND
THEIR PARTICIPATION WILL BE CRUCIAL. THEY CERTAINLY
DEMONSTRATED THEIR IMPORTANCE DURING THE APPEALS PROCESS.
THE USE OF AN INNOVATIVE, UNTRIED COMPUTERIZED SYSTEM FOR
THIS PIVOTAL EVENT MERITS CLOSE ATTENTION ALSO. ALTHOUGH THE
PAPER BACK-UP IT EMPLOYS IS A RECOGNIZED SAFEGUARD, THE ROOM
FOR MANIPULATION AND FRAUD IS AMPLE, AND THUS UNDERSCORES THE
NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL OBESRVATION.

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