VENEZUELA REFERENDUM: RECALL OR RATIFICATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001942

SIPDIS


NSC FOR C. BARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REFERENDUM: RECALL OR RATIFICATION


Classified By: Political Counselor Abelardo A. Arias for reason 1.4 (d)
.

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Before a multitude of supporters June 6, President
Hugo Chavez morphed the recall referendum sought by his
opponents into a referendum to ratify his mandate. He called
on his supporters to help him once again defeat the enemies
of the Bolivarian revolution who would deprive them of the
social programs Chavez has started. Chavez's shift is
important as the National Electoral Council, grappling with
the questions of when the referendum will be and whether the
process will be manual or electronic, also debates the
formulation of the referendum question. While the President
has strategically gone into full campaign modeu, his
opponents focus on tactical battles, and relegate matters
such as identifying their leading candidate to a second
level. End Summary.


2. (U) President Hugo Chavez, having accepted that the
preliminary results of the appeals process indicated that
there would be a recall referendum, convoked a rally in
Caracas June 6. Addressing the hundreds of thousands of
supporters bused in from around the country, Chavez said he
was pleased that the opposition had opted for a peaceful,
constitutional route and called on his opponents to reject
violence and refrain from seeking international intervention.
Denying that "we" had suffered a defeat, the President
mocked the opposition's claim to victory, alleging that it
was already considering dismantling the revolution's social
programs, privatizing the state oil company and to reinstate
military coup-plotters into the armed forces.


3. (U) Chavez called the referendum -- not once using the
word recall, instead referring to it as national or
ratification -- perhaps the best thing that could happen to
Venezuelans because the "oligarchy" would now stop its
whimpering. Accepting it as "one more challenge," he warned
the opposition "and its foreign masters" to prepare for a
defeat that "will be indelibly written in the history of the
21st century." Chavez told his supporters to prepare for 60
days of hard campaigning and set their goal at obtaining more
than twice the vote that brought Chavez to office.

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What's the date?
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4. (U) Chavez told the crowd he did not care whether the
National Electoral Council (CNE) set August 8 or August 15 as
the date for the referendum. Vice President Jose Vicente
Rangel and other leading Chavez allies have come out in favor
of the later date. CNE director Jorge Rodriguez has told
reporters he favors the August 15 date because the Council
needs the additional time for preparations. The CNE is
expected to set the date when results are announced June 8.


5. (U) Opposition leaders across the board are insisting on
the August 8 date. Miranda State Gov. Enrique Mendoza told
reporters June 7 that they expect the CNE to honor a verbal
commitment made to them by CNE director Jorge Rodriguez
during the appeals process negotiations. Mendoza said August
8 is key because, should any problems arise, Venezuelans
would have one more Sunday at their disposal to hold the
referendum before August 19. Chavez opponents also fear that
the GoV may employ legal maneuvering, such as seeking
distinction between when the voting occurred and when
official results are in, to deny them new elections. (Note:
If a successful recall referendum occurs after August 19,
there are no new presidential elections and the Vice
President would assume office.)

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Machines: Why Worry?
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6. (U) Another point of contention before the CNE is whether
to conduct the referendum with paper ballots or use

electronic machines. CNE director Rodriguez, who had a
leading role in obtaining the contract for the new machines
to be used, cites the electoral law as the reason for going
the computer route. VP Rangel and other Chavez supporters
have also flatly taken the side of computerized voting.
Fifth Republic Movement deputy Luis Tascon asserted that
using computers guarantees transparency in the process and
charged that the opposition insists on paper ballots so it
can commit fraud.


7. (U) Conversely, the opposition believes the GoV insists
on using the computers so it will be able to commit fraud.
Among the reasons Chavez opponents cite is the partial GoV
ownership (28% according to the Miami Herald) of the
consortium that has the contract for the machines; all the
machines needed for the vote have yet to be delivered; and
the software for them has yet to be written. Additionally,
there is concern about possible manipulations and electronic
fraud and Venezuelans' lack of familiarity with the machines.



8. (C) CNE director Ezequiel Zamora, who opposes using the
new machines for the referendum, argues that this is not time
to try out a new system. He noted, for example, that the
infrastructure -- electricity and telephony -- is not the
same in other parts of the country as it may be in the
capital. Carter Center representative Francisco Diez told
the Ambassador that the computerization of the referendum
should not be so problematic. They had seen a demonstration
of the machines, Diez said, and the electoral expert working
for the consortium (we presume this is a former IFES
consultant) is favorably known to them. Each machine has
built-in UPS to keep it functioning if power fails, and can
transmit results by cellphone or satellite if hard lines
fail.

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Fighting for the "Yes"
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9. (U) Another point of contention before the CNE is the
formulation of the question for the referendum. Having
invested more than a year on a "yes" vote, the Opposition
favors a question that calls for an affirmative answer, i.e.,
"Do you agree with revoking the mandate of the President of
the Republic?" Chavez, however, turned the tables June 6
when he made the recall referendum a ratification referendum.
The question his supporters favor is "Are you in favor of
President Chavez concluding his term?" There is as yet no
definition of when the CNE has to decide on the language of
the question. The later that the decision comes in the next
two months, assuming that it will be formulated in favor of
the GoV, the more difficult it will be for the Opposition's
campaign.

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Comment
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10. (C) While President has gone into full campaign mode,
the Opposition battles tactically over questions such as the
date, computerization or the language in the question to be
put before the voters. Matters such as who would be the
opposition candidate -- or for that matter, how many -- are
temporarily relegated to secondary attention. Fortunately
for the opposition, solutions to at least two of the three
predominant issues appear to be in the offing. Devoting
energies to a larger, strategic vision of how to approach the
referendum and the campaign to go along with it are a must
that the Opposition can ill afford to delay.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01942 - CONFIDENTIAL