SIGNATURES APPEALS UPDATE: MAY 30

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001861

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM VE
SUBJECT: SIGNATURES APPEALS UPDATE: MAY 30


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Venezuelans turned out in lesser numbers on the last
day of presidential signature (May 30) appeals. Partial
results indicate the opposition collected enough appeals to
activate the referendum. There were violent confrontations
between Chavez sympathizers and opposition groups near
appeals centers nationwide. GOV security forces raided
dozens of opposition information centers in search of fraud
alleged by Chavez supporters. The pro-Chavez campaign
committee Comando Ayacucho accused the opposition of
falsifying 10,000 identity cards in hundreds of centers
across Venezuela, and called for an audit of all appeals
registers (cuadernos). National Electoral Council (CNE)
President Francisco Carrasquero expressed concern at the
alleged electoral fraud and encouraged appeals workers to
scrutinize identity cards. Former President Jimmy Carter,
accompanied by OAS SYG Gaviria, told reporters that the
reported irregularities were minor technicalities and should
not delay official results. End Summary.

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Opposition Reaches Threshold
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2. (C) Turnout was lower May 30 for the third and final day
of signature appeals, with heavy rains in Caracas and in many
states around Venezuela. Observers noted that participation
had picked up in some states, but it did not reach first-day
levels. Appeals centers operated normally, though observers
noted that Plan Republica soldiers scrutinized closely
persons trying to enter centers. With two hours remaining
before closure, results from one source said the opposition
had reached 2.52 million valid signatures, at least 80,000
signatures above the threshold needed to activate the recall
referendum against President Hugo Chavez May 30. Projections
suggest the opposition will exceed the threshold by 110,000
signatures. (Update: as of May 31, opposition was claiming it
exceeded threshold by 130,000 signatures.)

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Violence, Threats Around Appeals Centers
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3. (U) Press and observer reports noted the continued
presence of Chavez supporters, and in many cases, opposition
groups, around appeals centers. There were reports of
harassment of participants by Chavez groups. Observers noted
groups of Chavez supporters, some of them armed, arriving at
sites in buses and government vehicles, where they would
intimidate participants. Disputes often resulted in Plan
Republica soldiers closing centers temporarily.

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Chavistas Allege Massive Fraud
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4. (U) Members of the pro-Chavez campaign committee Comando
Ayacucho alleged the opposition engaged in mass fraud,
falsifying identity cards (cedulas). The Comando Ayacucho
demanded that the National Electoral Council (CNE) audit
every appeals register to ensure the fraudulent cedulas had
not been used. GOV security forces raided dozens of the
opposition's information centers throughout Venezuela,
alleging they were factories for producing false cedulas.
Comando Ayacucho members were present for several raids,
showing the false cedulas allegedly recovered from the sites.
Libertador Mayor Freddy Bernal claimed to have found a
"national identity card cloning center," alleging the GOV had
discovered at least 10,000 such cards. Political party
offices, doubling as information centers, were also targets.
DISIP agents at one site claimed they did not need a search
warrant because they were in hot pursuit of gunmen who had
fired on them.


5. (U) The Comando Ayacucho also claimed that more than 5,300
people who had passed away since signing in November 2003 had
mysteriously appealed their signatures. Pro-Chavez Fifth
Republic Movement (MVR) Deputy Willian Lara said the Comando
Ayacucho would request the National Electoral Council (CNE)
exclude these signatures automatically. In some centers the
"deceased" persons appeared and defended their signatures,
according to press and observer reports. The CD dismissed
the fraud allegations as desperation by the GOV and demanded
that the CNE not change the rules by auditing every register.

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Carter and Gaviria Visit Chavez, CNE
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6. (U) Former President Jimmy Carter and OAS SYG Cesar
Gaviria met separately with President Chavez on May 30.
Chavez told reporters after the Carter meeting he would
comply with any decision by the CNE. Carter and Gaviria met
with the CNE board later in the day. Carter told the press
that the process was being carried out in peace and calm.
News reports of intimidation and violence, he said, were
minor problems that did not disrupt the appeals process.
Carter said the technicalities raised by the Comando Ayacucho
should not delay the delivery of results.

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Comment
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7. (C) The GOV was aware of the opposition's progress and
tried to discourage turnout through harassment and, failing
that, discrediting the results by alleging fraud. The
opposition seems to be on track to have obtained a moderate
cushion of signatures to activate the recall referendum. We
are still several days away from the deadline for the CNE to
announce the results (June 4). Both sides are celebrating
triumph for now, but just as the government has been
intimidating and harassing the opposition prior to this
weekend, it will continue to do so, keeping tensions elevated
in the coming days.
SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA01861 - CONFIDENTIAL