Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS1730
2004-05-19 18:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

VENEZUELA: SIGNATURE APPEALS UPDATE

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM VE OAS 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001730 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: SIGNATURE APPEALS UPDATE

REF: A. CARACAS 1656


B. CARACAS 1542

C. CARACAS 1692

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001730

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA: SIGNATURE APPEALS UPDATE

REF: A. CARACAS 1656


B. CARACAS 1542

C. CARACAS 1692

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Opponents of President Hugo Chavez and the National
Electoral Council (CNE) continue to prepare for the signature
appeals process ("reparos") scheduled for May 27-31.
Relations between the international observers (OAS and the
Carter Center) and the CNE improved slightly, but
sensitivities remain as Chavez supporters have sunk to
personal attacks against the observers. The CNE is
reportedly close to finalizing the procedure for totalling
the signature appeals, which will reportedly include
verification of identity documents to detect possible fraud
at the appeals centers. The signature appeals period for 15
opposition and two pro-GOV deputies will take place May
20-24. For the presidential signature appeals May 27-31, the
opposition remains optimistic they will mobilize enough
people to compensate for the effects of fraud or people
recanting their signatures. Chavez and his supporters repeat
constantly that the appeals process will not succeed in
activating the recall referendum. The international
observers found no errors in their sample of the presidential
appeals registers ("cuadernos") and the opposition is nearing
completion of its audit. End summary.

--------------
Deputies Reparos May 20-24
--------------


2. (SBU) The National Electoral Council (CNE) has been
preparing for the signature appeals process ("reparos")
against opposition and pro-GOV deputies May 20-24 (the actual
collection days are May 21-23). During the signature drives
in November 2003, Chavez supporters collected signatures
against 32 opposition deputies; the opposition collected
against 32 pro-GOV deputies. The CNE determined that
sufficient signatures were collected against 15 of the
opposition deputies and two of the pro-GOV deputies for the
deputies' signature appeals. The CNE will appeals centers in

12 states, corresponding to the deputies' electoral
districts. The OAS plans to have 13 observers and The Carter
Center (TCC) 20 in-country for the event. (Note: One press
analysis concluded that the National Assembly's balance of
power would only be affected by the deputies' referendum
process if two opposition deputies who currently have no
alternates were to be recalled.)

--------------
New Rules For Adding Up Signatures
--------------


3. (U) The CNE approved the rules for totalling the appeals
on May 18, though has yet to publish the text. The CNE board
debated the rules for two weeks. Among the points of
contention, Coordinadora Democratica (CD) negotiator Alberto
Quiroz said, was the CD desire to ensure the principle of
"sudden death," or that appeals will be totalled up at the
end of each day and not be subject to further verification
procedures. He added that the CD also wanted the rules to
avoid the possibility that the CNE could nullify appeals that
are not properly tracked on daily tally sheets ("actas") as
happened with the November signature drive. Finally, Quiroz
said the CD wanted to be sure the totalization rules track
with the appeals regulations that give the CNE just four days
to announce the results.

--------------
DIEX To Police Identity Cards
--------------


4. (C) Press reports on May 19 indicate that the CNE had

approved the use of Directorate of Identification and
Immigration (DIEX) officials in charge of identity cards
("fiscales de cedulizacion") to canvass centers during the
appeals period. This had been a demand of the pro-Chavez
Comando Ayacucho as a measure to prevent fraud. Former
fiscal Denis Cortez told Poloff May 19 there are no more than
200 such officials, in his opinion an insufficient number to
cover the appeals centers. Cortez, who now heads the CD's
anti-fraud committee, said that the fiscales are under the
titular authority of the CNE, but have offices in DIEX and
since 2003 have operated solely under DIEX authority. Cortez
asserted that the fiscales are biased toward GOV political
interests and may, in fact, be facilitating alleged fraud in
issuing false identity cards.

--------------
Registers Look Good
--------------


5. (C) The CNE completed printing the appeals registers
("cuadernos") and has permitted the opposition and OAS/TCC to
do an audit sample. Quiroz told reporters May 17 that the
CNE failed to provide proper access to the registers within
the time stipulated in the regulations, but that the audit
would be completed by May 18 if work continued unimpeded.
Movement to Socialism (MAS) President Felipe Mujica told
poloff that the CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez had been acting
as if he were doing the opposition a favor by allowing them
to check the accuracy of the registers. Mujica, too, said
the CD audit was nearly completed and they had not yet
discovered any glaring errors. OAS observer mission chief
Marcelo Alvarez__ told poloff the OAS/TCC sample showed the
registers to be "100 percent" accurate.

--------------
Repentance: Don't Ask, Don't Tell
--------------


6. (C) Whether people may withdraw their signatures because
they claim their identity was stolen -- as the rules
stipulate -- or whether they just have a change of heart --
which the Pro-Chavez Comando Ayacucho is promoting -- remains
a subject of public debate. Rodriguez said the parties
agreed that the mere manifestation of the person at the
appeals center is sufficient and such "repenters" do not need
to state the reason for their withdrawal.

--------------
Mujica: People Power Is Key
--------------


7. (C) Mujica discounted efforts by the opposition to glean
some advantage in the appeals process through rules or court
cases. The key, he said, is to mobilize more than enough
people to go to appeals centers. Mujica said public support
for the appeals process is high and he expects an excellent
turnout. He said the GOV erred in thinking the appeals
process would split the opposition. Chavistas are
"hysterical," he said, to stop the appeals, noting with
skepticism the GOV's recent claims that Colombian
paramilitaries had invaded Venezuela (ref c). Mujica's own
wife was briefly kidnapped from their home by gunmen on May
10, which Mujica called an attempt to intimidate. Mujica did
not rule out that the GOV may resort to extreme measures that
interrupt the appeals, but he believed any such efforts would
ultimately be self-defeating.

--------------
Chavez Sees Referendum "Poco Probable"
--------------


8. (U) Chavez said in an interview published by Reuters May
18 he believed the opposition would not get enough signatures
in the appeals process to activate the referendum against
him. He added that if the opposition does win, it will be
more difficult for them because he will win the referendum.
Chavez supporters are largely repeating this line in the
press and in contacts with the Embassy.

--------------
Sumate Directors Ordered To Court
--------------


9. (U) With one week remaining before the appeals process,
Sumate directors Alejandro Plas and Maria Corina Machado have
been summoned by a public prosecutor under suspicion of
"treason and conspiracy" in relation to the NGO's receipt of
grants from the National Endowment for Democracy. Chavez
leveled the charges of treason in February, after which
prosecutors opened a case against the NGO that provides
electoral technical support for the opposition. Plas and
Machado announced in a press conference on May 18 that
despite already giving statements, they had been recalled --
Plas for May 21 and Machado for May 26 -- as suspects. The
summons could result in their detention. Plas and Machado
denounced the summons as an attempt to dissuade Sumate
volunteers from supporting the appeals process.

--------------
OAS/TCC and CNE Make Up, Until the Next Fight
--------------


10. (U) After days of private discussion, the OAS/TCC and the
CNE issued on May 17 a joint statement declaring they had
"smoothed things over" and that the observers would stay on.
CNE Director Rodriguez warned on May 18, however, that the
observers are invited because of their impartiality; the
moment they lose it, Rodriguez said, the CNE will reissue its
ultimatum. The dispute arose when the OAS/TCC issued a joint
statement May 12 disputing the legality of the CNE decision
to permit people to withdraw their names from the signature
petitions to revoke President Chavez because they changed
their minds. Objecting to the statement, CNE President
Francisco Carrasquero issued an ultimatum that the observers
retract their statement or the CNE would "reconsider" the
missions' participation (ref a).


11. (C) Alvarez__ told poloff May 18 that fundamental
disagreements remain, but that the CNE could not afford to
lose the participation of the OAS/TCC. Alvarez__ said he had
"torturous" meetings with Rodriguez over how to resolve the
dispute. (Rodriguez told reporters things were "on the slow
road" to resolution.) Alvarez__ predicted the dispute would
re-ignite the next time the observers disagree publicly with
the CNE. Alvarez__ was irritated with Ismael Garcia, a
National Deputy and chair of the Comando Ayacucho, had
accused him personally May 14 of taking a vacation paid for
by Venezuelan media magnate Gustavo Cisneros (Venevision).
Alvarez__ said that OAS Chief of Staff Fernando Jaramillo would
arrive on May 19 for meetings with the GOV, during which
Alvarez_ hopes the OAS will reject the personal attacks.
Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose Albornoz
demanded publicly May 17 that the OAS/TCC "urgently" replace
their mission chiefs, who, he said, had become politicized.

--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (C) The CNE will likely continue to scrutinize the
international observers closely. The Comando Ayacucho's
personal attacks on the international observers is the
classic Chavista maneuver of attacking individuals to
pressure their institutions. Chavez supporters realize that
the international observers could make the difference between
victory and defeat and they are trying to discredit them.
Despite this, the signature appeals are more or less on
track. Mujica's confidence may be misplaced, however, as
there are still many opportunities for the GOV to interfere
with the process.

SHAPIRO


NNNN

2004CARACA01730 - CONFIDENTIAL