Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04CARACAS173
2004-01-16 17:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION FRAYS OVER ELECTORAL QUESTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL VE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000173 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FRAYS OVER ELECTORAL QUESTIONS


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000173

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FRAYS OVER ELECTORAL QUESTIONS


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) officially began
the verification process for the three signature drives to
recall President Hugo Chavez and numerous National Assembly
deputies January 13. The CNE's announcement that
gubernatorial and mayoral elections will take place as
scheduled in July/August, however, stirred up tensions among
opposition political parties over which electoral process
will be the priority for the opposition. Traditional parties
(AD, COPEI, MAS) perceive an opportunity to defeat Chavez at
the state and local level, while other parties (Primero
Justicia, Proyecto Venezuela, Causa R) worry that a divided
opposition will fumble the presidential referendum process.
Frustrated by the slow pace of the CNE, the opposition has
fallen into the trap of attacking each other. End Summary.

-------------- -
CNE Begins Physical Check of Chavez Signatures
-------------- -


2. (C) On January 14, the National Electoral Council (CNE)
began the physical verification -- the first step in the
verification process -- of the signatures collected in
support of the presidential referendum. On January 13,
National Electoral Council (CNE) directors Jorge Rodriguez
and Ezequiel Zamora declared publicly that the verification
process had begun. The CNE board reportedly increased the
number of lawyers on the committee examining the
certifications ("actas") from 40 to 70 to speed up that stage
of the verification process. Rodriguez added that the CNE
plans to work separately on the three signature drives, 1)
against opposition deputies, 2) against President Hugo
Chavez, and 3) against GOV-allied deputies. An OAS observer
told poloff January 13 that the CNE is planning to create a
single report to announce the results of the three drives.
(Note: The rules permit 30 days to complete the verification
process and two days for the CNE board to approve the
results.) He doubted the CNE could finish the job in the
legally prescribed 30 days, but expressed confidence that

work would proceed expeditiously.

--------------
Regional Elections Cloud Picture
--------------


3. (C) The CNE's announcement that elections for governors
and mayors would proceed on schedule at the end of July (or
beginning of August) stirred up concern among opposition
parties over the fate of the recall referendum against
Chavez. Primero Justicia (PJ),Proyecto Venezuela (PV),and
Causa R denounced AD, COPEI, MAS, Solidaridad, and Union for
allegedly giving priority to the regional elections instead
of the presidential recall vote. PJ Secretary General Jose
Luis Mejias told poloffs January 14 that a meeting at the
Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) on January 10
revealed strong disagreement between parties on how to
proceed. Mejias claimed that state and local elections will
distract from the referendum, citing an example of a rural PJ
candidate who asked party leadership not to criticize Chavez
because he was supported by an important group of Chavez
supporters in his town. Mejias said PJ has proposed a
unified campaign committee to coordinate candidate selection
among the parties, basing the decision on who is most likely
to defeat the Chavez-backed candidate. Regarding PJ Deputy
Gerardo Blyde's request to the Supreme Court to postpone the
regional elections until December, Mejias thought the Court
would reject the request, but added that at least PJ would
make its point.


4. (C) Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) President Felipe
Mujica dispelled PJ's criticisms in a conversation with
poloffs January 15. Mujica said PJ has "votes but not
candidates" and is less prepared for the regional elections.

The dispute between parties is natural competition, he said,
and for a party to ignore an election would be like trying to
ignore the reality of one's own birthday. The CNE calendar,
he said, would require parties to name state and local
candidates o/a March 20. He noted that if the CNE announces
at the beginning of February that there will be a referendum
in May/June, then Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, a
potential candidate for president, would have to choose
between the two. The opposition, he said, is facing either
"a great opportunity" or a "big disaster," depending on
whether they can coordinate on the various electoral events.


5. (C) A representative of the DCC told PolOff that the
January 10 meeting produced a deadlock among parties and NGOs
over the question of regional elections. The representative
said he thought it unlikely there would be agreement on
unified candidates for governors and mayors, but that as the
elections approached, trailing candidates would throw their
support to the leading opposition candidate. The
representative suspects the CNE will ultimately combine the
regional elections with either the referendum against Chavez
or the subsequent presidential election.

--------------
Comment
--------------


6. (C) For months we have heard from GOV allies their
strategy to divide the opposition over the regional
elections. The opposition fell into the trap and turned on
themselves by taking it public. It should not be surprising
that those political parties with strong chances of winning
at the state and local levels are not willing to pass up the
opportunity. They hope to remove Chavez now via referendum,
but think it foolish not to try to deal him a blow by
defeating him in the regional elections. We suspect the
opposition's divisions over regional elections can be
reconciled in time, though it will be a messy process.

SHAPIRO


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